Patterns and Technicals
- Thread starter pkamalesh
- Start date
Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!
Talking of sure-shot methods try elliot waves. They will be helpful. Nothing is surer than that and yes it is far too time consuming than the one which u r trying to invent and Rajat stop taking pot shots it does not suit you. I know you know what I mean and yes I still think you were stupid enough to use that stradle that day.
Talking of sure-shot methods try elliot waves. They will be helpful. Nothing is surer than that and yes it is far too time consuming than the one which u r trying to invent and Rajat stop taking pot shots it does not suit you. I know you know what I mean and yes I still think you were stupid enough to use that stradle that day.
Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!
The average success rate for trading is 60%. Which is considered very good for anybody. From profesionals to warren buffet. You have mentioned 80% and I do not fell the need to do it. Because what you have is a crude version of market profile. Which is a method that I mentioned in the morning. If you want to do this way. You should check it out. This was my last post here. Good
Luck Kaushik.
The average success rate for trading is 60%. Which is considered very good for anybody. From profesionals to warren buffet. You have mentioned 80% and I do not fell the need to do it. Because what you have is a crude version of market profile. Which is a method that I mentioned in the morning. If you want to do this way. You should check it out. This was my last post here. Good
Luck Kaushik.
Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!
Thanks a lot Pkamalesh for starting this thread and picking up this topic.
This method has been in my todo list of system testing for quite some time.. But now when u have picked up the topic.. I am also bringing it on top of my list. I will be following this thread very closely and will contribute wherever possible.
This is great method and I have seen working in other markets again and again..So I strongly believe that it will work in our market as well. May not be in the format in which we starting today but we can try and adjust. Otherwise, let numbers tell us that it doesn't work.. And until we backtest or paper trade it.. we won't know it.
No system is 100% perfect..so lets keep that in mind. There will be loosing trades but we have stoploss for risk mitigation . I am sure we can develop something that will be a tradeable system.
Similar method that I am aware of is called as "90-10 continuation" system. That means if price closes in top 10% or bottom 10% of the range, then it has high probability that the trend will continue in next day. (Your method will be called as 70-30 continuation from this standard.. but that doesn't matter. Please continue with your approach and once we have some data, we can playground with these numbers and improve the system.. )
Let me explain the mkt psychology (as I understand) behind this system which makes me feel that it is based on a strong foundation ....
- Days range defines the boundary of battle between bulls and bears. One of those boundary points the battle was won by one or other party. I.e. at Day High - Bears won the battle and pushed the prices down.. And at Day Low - bulls have won the fight and stopped the prices going further down. So if prices close on upper 10% range by end of the day... then it indicates that bulls are strong at the close..
If you notice.. Market close defines the action by Big Players/ DII/ FII /professionals. whereas Mkt open price is impacted more by retail participants. So If professionals have pushed the prices high .. to the top of the range.. Then they are not going to book profit quickly.
Hence retail /novice traders will join them. They will read the paper/watch CNBC in the night and will feel that mkt is going up and will buy tomorrow. Retail traders are the people who buy after price has gone up and sell when price have gone down.
Professionals do the opposite.. And collect money from retail traders.
Logic is same when mkt closes in bottom 10%.
Hope I am making some sense here.. and it gives people some more belief in this method.
Now coming back to price action on next day.. Most likely mkt will open higher (I am looking for paper trade to give us that %age)... but at some stage people will come to take profit. Generally it happens in first 1 hour of trade or on first reversal on following day. People who bought yesterday will book profit (this may not be professionals but swing traders, or overnight traders).. so prices will retrace. If more professionals start buying tomorrow then trend will continue.. but if they decide to watch market before putting further money, then due to lack of participation from them, market may reverse on next day.
So for your strategy.. my suggestion will be (but decision is yours Kamalesh)
1) Decide Setup criteria like
- look at chart at 3.00 pm / 3.15 pm
- Note days high and low till that time
- see if falls in 70% - 30% range.. or not (my feeling is that 30% from range extreme is very wide zone and it might show us that strength of bull /bear power that will take push the mkt in the same direction.. Result might be more loosing trades on next day. Aim of system should be to take high probability trades.. not more number of trades. Think about it..)
- if yes, then go to next step.. else shutdown the machine and do something else..
2) Entry criteria
- buy at mkt / buy at open of 3.05 pm bar / buy at open of 3.20 pm bar.
- Place stoploss order... - at todays low, low of prev 1hr bar, 50 points below our entry.. or anything else.. But we got to think about the risks first. We can very well play around with these parameter later to improve the system
- Note that this SL will protect us with any sudden last min shock that we might see after out entry. Also we need to take care of putting this SL before mkt open (by After mkt hour order so atleast there is some protection).
3)Exit rule -
- Stop loss related points that I mentioned above can very well come here as well
- Profit exit - define some rule.. like exit at 11.00 am on next day, or hold it close of next day and sell on open of following day.. In the absence of this rule, it will become difficult to make it a system and improve. You can also very well look at the break of Pivot low on next day.
- Trailing SL rule - optional.. this will help us in upgrading or SLoss to next level.
Also think about what to if mkt opens below our SL and SL is not triggered. Like Saints method which suggests that we wait for few minutes before taking any action.
4) Data /trade Recording - so that u can analyse it later..
- If I were you, I will record, atleast all the points mentioned in above 3 points. Additional points could be the sentiment of the day etc.
For shorts these rules will be more or less same.. with little bit of adjustments..
Hope this helps atleast to some extent. But please take a call on what to do and what not.. You don't have to follow everything or anything that I have mentioned..
Happy Trading..
Thanks a lot Pkamalesh for starting this thread and picking up this topic.
This method has been in my todo list of system testing for quite some time.. But now when u have picked up the topic.. I am also bringing it on top of my list. I will be following this thread very closely and will contribute wherever possible.
This is great method and I have seen working in other markets again and again..So I strongly believe that it will work in our market as well. May not be in the format in which we starting today but we can try and adjust. Otherwise, let numbers tell us that it doesn't work.. And until we backtest or paper trade it.. we won't know it.
No system is 100% perfect..so lets keep that in mind. There will be loosing trades but we have stoploss for risk mitigation . I am sure we can develop something that will be a tradeable system.
Similar method that I am aware of is called as "90-10 continuation" system. That means if price closes in top 10% or bottom 10% of the range, then it has high probability that the trend will continue in next day. (Your method will be called as 70-30 continuation from this standard.. but that doesn't matter. Please continue with your approach and once we have some data, we can playground with these numbers and improve the system.. )
Let me explain the mkt psychology (as I understand) behind this system which makes me feel that it is based on a strong foundation ....
- Days range defines the boundary of battle between bulls and bears. One of those boundary points the battle was won by one or other party. I.e. at Day High - Bears won the battle and pushed the prices down.. And at Day Low - bulls have won the fight and stopped the prices going further down. So if prices close on upper 10% range by end of the day... then it indicates that bulls are strong at the close..
If you notice.. Market close defines the action by Big Players/ DII/ FII /professionals. whereas Mkt open price is impacted more by retail participants. So If professionals have pushed the prices high .. to the top of the range.. Then they are not going to book profit quickly.
Hence retail /novice traders will join them. They will read the paper/watch CNBC in the night and will feel that mkt is going up and will buy tomorrow. Retail traders are the people who buy after price has gone up and sell when price have gone down.
Professionals do the opposite.. And collect money from retail traders.
Logic is same when mkt closes in bottom 10%.
Hope I am making some sense here.. and it gives people some more belief in this method.
Now coming back to price action on next day.. Most likely mkt will open higher (I am looking for paper trade to give us that %age)... but at some stage people will come to take profit. Generally it happens in first 1 hour of trade or on first reversal on following day. People who bought yesterday will book profit (this may not be professionals but swing traders, or overnight traders).. so prices will retrace. If more professionals start buying tomorrow then trend will continue.. but if they decide to watch market before putting further money, then due to lack of participation from them, market may reverse on next day.
So for your strategy.. my suggestion will be (but decision is yours Kamalesh)
1) Decide Setup criteria like
- look at chart at 3.00 pm / 3.15 pm
- Note days high and low till that time
- see if falls in 70% - 30% range.. or not (my feeling is that 30% from range extreme is very wide zone and it might show us that strength of bull /bear power that will take push the mkt in the same direction.. Result might be more loosing trades on next day. Aim of system should be to take high probability trades.. not more number of trades. Think about it..)
- if yes, then go to next step.. else shutdown the machine and do something else..
2) Entry criteria
- buy at mkt / buy at open of 3.05 pm bar / buy at open of 3.20 pm bar.
- Place stoploss order... - at todays low, low of prev 1hr bar, 50 points below our entry.. or anything else.. But we got to think about the risks first. We can very well play around with these parameter later to improve the system
- Note that this SL will protect us with any sudden last min shock that we might see after out entry. Also we need to take care of putting this SL before mkt open (by After mkt hour order so atleast there is some protection).
3)Exit rule -
- Stop loss related points that I mentioned above can very well come here as well
- Profit exit - define some rule.. like exit at 11.00 am on next day, or hold it close of next day and sell on open of following day.. In the absence of this rule, it will become difficult to make it a system and improve. You can also very well look at the break of Pivot low on next day.
- Trailing SL rule - optional.. this will help us in upgrading or SLoss to next level.
Also think about what to if mkt opens below our SL and SL is not triggered. Like Saints method which suggests that we wait for few minutes before taking any action.
4) Data /trade Recording - so that u can analyse it later..
- If I were you, I will record, atleast all the points mentioned in above 3 points. Additional points could be the sentiment of the day etc.
For shorts these rules will be more or less same.. with little bit of adjustments..
Hope this helps atleast to some extent. But please take a call on what to do and what not.. You don't have to follow everything or anything that I have mentioned..
Happy Trading..
Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!
Who the hell are you to tell us anything u toilet pot.
kammy is not coming here to charge money , i know ur motive you have come here to just earn MEMBERS for ur advisory services as u told b4 , people on traderji come bcoz they try to help others without charging. People like Satda , alex , ashishda , kammy , czar , sunil can earn thousands giving their useful info which many applaud.
You hav something to give to this forum, contribute otherwise shut and dont stop and criticize others frm posting their methods.
Anyways biggest fool was you who borrowed money to earn in mkts.
yeah stop posting here.
Who the hell are you to tell us anything u toilet pot.
kammy is not coming here to charge money , i know ur motive you have come here to just earn MEMBERS for ur advisory services as u told b4 , people on traderji come bcoz they try to help others without charging. People like Satda , alex , ashishda , kammy , czar , sunil can earn thousands giving their useful info which many applaud.
You hav something to give to this forum, contribute otherwise shut and dont stop and criticize others frm posting their methods.
Anyways biggest fool was you who borrowed money to earn in mkts.
yeah stop posting here.
Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!
With my exprience, EW are great on left side of the chart.. but it produces so many permuataions and combinations on right side of the chart.. that it very difiicult.
I have spent enough time on them, and couldn't find reliable trading pattern on short term. I use them, but only for getting broader picture.
And in this market, people do make money without trading EW. There are many other successful systems possible..
If I have other things to do and I can give only 60min to the mkt.. then I need a system that fits me.. System that is working for others is of no use for me.
I don't think we can find EW based system which meets my requirement of trading 60mins per day..
If yes, then please give us the setup/ entry/exit rules for that so that we can backtest.
Happy Trading.
With my exprience, EW are great on left side of the chart.. but it produces so many permuataions and combinations on right side of the chart.. that it very difiicult.
I have spent enough time on them, and couldn't find reliable trading pattern on short term. I use them, but only for getting broader picture.
And in this market, people do make money without trading EW. There are many other successful systems possible..
If I have other things to do and I can give only 60min to the mkt.. then I need a system that fits me.. System that is working for others is of no use for me.
I don't think we can find EW based system which meets my requirement of trading 60mins per day..
If yes, then please give us the setup/ entry/exit rules for that so that we can backtest.
Happy Trading.
Last edited:
Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!
Dear AW10 sir....Thank you soooooooo much for your valuable knowledge and the insights you have given me.I was rather dissapointed with the way i was getting kicked around by someone here, but sir your poast has refilled the enthusiasm and the confidence that i really wanted..I will definitely follow the set o rules that u have suggested and also try to compare other rules so that we can make a set of rules all together..Yhanks a lot once agian and i hope seniors like you will keep encouraging juniors like us..
kammy
Dear AW10 sir....Thank you soooooooo much for your valuable knowledge and the insights you have given me.I was rather dissapointed with the way i was getting kicked around by someone here, but sir your poast has refilled the enthusiasm and the confidence that i really wanted..I will definitely follow the set o rules that u have suggested and also try to compare other rules so that we can make a set of rules all together..Yhanks a lot once agian and i hope seniors like you will keep encouraging juniors like us..
kammy
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