Patterns and Technicals

[nagendra_gb]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Hi Sunil and Kamalesh..

This is my observation also and am following this from couple of months. Results are most often positive. Usually trend starts from 1:45 onwards. To be frank usually by that time one can have a fair idea of US markets by seeing Dow futures. So i usually take decision by 1 45 to 2 and will keep one position open. But most of the times i usually take this as an advantage to write options also. Say on friday by seeing the upmove i wrote 2700 puts and went long on futures. At the closing i wrote 3300 calls also just as an hedge which i usually not do .. i did on friday because at that time DAX was falling and was bit scared of US data too. I remember Ashish sir saying that dont see many markets but the thing is some times it really comes handy.. i really want to post charts but bad luck some problem will surely post.. but am doing this from couple of months 95% of the times it works.. morning usually i square it off in the opening and after that will take up the position fresh...

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Hi Sunil and Kamalesh..

This is my observation also and am following this from couple of months. Results are most often positive. Usually trend starts from 1:45 onwards. To be frank usually by that time one can have a fair idea of US markets by seeing Dow futures. So i usually take decision by 1 45 to 2 and will keep one position open. But most of the times i usually take this as an advantage to write options also. Say on friday by seeing the upmove i wrote 2700 puts and went long on futures. At the closing i wrote 3300 calls also just as an hedge which i usually not do .. i did on friday because at that time DAX was falling and was bit scared of US data too. I remember Ashish sir saying that dont see many markets but the thing is some times it really comes handy.. i really want to post charts but bad luck some problem will surely post.. but am doing this from couple of months 95% of the times it works.. morning usually i square it odd in the opening and after that will take up the position fresh...

Thanks nag for the inputs..was wondering if u can suggest the entry and exit rules or suggest somethin that can be useful as per ur ecperience

kammy

 

[nagendra_gb]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Kamalesh.. honestly have not designed any rules as such .. i usualy take saint sir's mini flow and if it seems favorable as i told above will carry forward..but would really like to design some rules on it.. from tomorrow on wards lets start our experiment on this.. after few days we can come up with some numbers and rules wht say...

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Sure nag sir...would be thrilled to experiment on something new as this...if u could post ur comments during the market hours would be too useful..

 

[AW10]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

there have been situations where, for example, u buy at 3000. Next day it opens at 2920.
Now, what will u do - wait for 5min bar to be formed, apply room etc... u know, u r already into a loss trade...
if that 5min bar breaks down, we r out...
what if it breaks on uoside (but still far from our cost).... will u average your trade, hoping that gap will be filled...????!!!!
that's too much "I" into trades.......

I would go with the title of this thread - trade between 3pm and 10:30am....
if u r stopped out at open, u exit gracefully...
then trade remaining part of day (as u do usually, following any method u r comfy with), and wait for 3pm again, for such BTST/STBT trades....

Sunil Sir, I agree with all your points.. you have seen those conditions, faced them and came out as winner, so certainly they are valid and got to be addressed.

Looking from solution perspective (or as a system developer) I will take them as valid scenario and test how this system will stand against them. Draw my plan on mitigating those risk... either thru this system or thru risk and money management rules.
Nifty can gap open against us.. but there is limit to it.. 3% , 5% , 8%.. and how many times.. It is also possible that Nifty can gap open in our favour.. (and we get home run).. again how many times etc..
So we got to see the Expectancy of the system in long run before we put the money on it.
Certainly, rules of position size etc are yet to come here. Till that time I am not trading it .. as I am not in Gambling business but in Trading business.

Happy Trading

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Oknow lets see if this works...had we started this thread on friday itsself we would have bought nifty futures as per the trend at 3 pm and the value being 2993...The calculations have been done earlier...At this point in time we dont consider the lot size and all.... we are more concerned with the result..

So the first paper trade goes this way..

Bought NF at 2993 ( 3 pm on 7th nov)..

lets see what happens tomorrow....

 

[Sunil]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

kamalesh, just a small input abt entry time...
here, i would go with Karnani sir & would prefer 3:15-3:20 time band for entry....
but frankly, to determine success ratio of this plan, i would compare closing price & opening price only...
entry & exits are subjective...

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

sunil sir..just wanted to take 3 pm and check..as we have been talking abut the entry to be 3 pm...how ever we can check the average change in price from 3 pm to 3 15 pm for some days from tomorrow and we can decide the entry as you suggested...As karnani sir said that we might have huge reversals in that span..in those days we can adopt a late entry or somethin like that...hope you seniors will be able to sort that out...

 

[pakatil]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

So the first paper trade goes this way..

Bought NF at 2993 ( 3 pm on 7th nov)..

lets see what happens tomorrow....

I have Long Position @ 2979 in SGX Trading Simulator.

What a coincindence.

Cheers Kamalesh.

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

I have Long Position @ 2979 in SGX Trading Simulator.

What a coincindence.

Cheers Kamalesh.

haaa..so im hopeful of a good profit on this first paper trade......as u too r long on nf...cheers