Patterns and Technicals

[AW10]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Sharing something from my personal database which is related to this setup.
I have used 90%-10% of days range as setup criteria for this method and highlighted the findings in attached images.

Notes to understand the tables

1) Look at the days when either 90-10 Bullish or Bearish flag is triggered. Notice the CLOSE price.

2) IF Bullish flag is triggerd, (i.e. mkt closed in >90% of days range) then look at the OPEN and HIGH of next day.
I have marked these cells in different color. The text is in bold Red at some cells indicating that they would have been loosing positions.. Otherwise, we would have been in positive trade.

3) similar color code is also used in table related to 90-10 Bearish (i.e. mkt closed in <10% of days range) . This time we are looking at OPEN and LOW in next day.

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These tables certainly gives me confidence that we have good setup in hand.
It is not based on Technical analysis . but some other sensible logic of market price behaviour ( I mentioned it in my previous post as per my understanding ). This is also on of the setup mentioned in TOBY CRABELS book on daytrading patterns and setups . Lets see if we can trade this or not.. We can certainly use tools from technical analysis to make a tradeable system.

(hope I have not made any error in data or marking these tables..feel free to highlight them if you find any error so that I can correct the images).

Happy Trading

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Hi guys...takin cue from AW sir...just for the ease of the members here..i have added a simple excel attachment..just punch in the high,low and the current level and the percentage would be displayed automatically...

 

[Sunil]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

AW10,
The idea u put behind the table (colour coding, etc) is fine, but i m afraid, u have taken SPOT values....
the Lows & Highs of SPOT are sometimes not as per actuals (especially when they are formed within 1st minute of trading).....
I'll use your idea of presentation, and try to apply it on Fut Data (i have readymade H-L-C data in excel) during last one year, and will post the result on Thursday (market holiday)



Kamalesh,
can u confirm/finalise the percantile figure we r looking for entering longs and short....
we can then incorporatise this into your Excel file, as Buy / Sell signal.

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

AW10,
The idea u put behind the table (colour coding, etc) is fine, but i m afraid, u have taken SPOT values....
the Lows & Highs of SPOT are sometimes not as per actuals (especially when they are formed within 1st minute of trading).....
I'll use your idea of presentation, and try to apply it on Fut Data (i have readymade H-L-C data in excel) during last one year, and will post the result on Thursday (market holiday)



Kamalesh,
can u confirm/finalise the percantile figure we r looking for entering longs and short....
we can then incorporatise this into your Excel file, as Buy / Sell signal.

Sunil sir..i would think 60 % would be a good idea but to confirm as AW sir and karnani sir have said we can take 70 - 30 rule also...I just have one doubt with AW sir;s point...if we take the 90- 10 rule...can we trade every day???becoz we dont get these figures every day...i think we can stick to the following for now..

60 % = Buy with hedged position( less quantity)

70 % = Buy with or without hedge( Add quantity)

90 % and above = confirmed buy

The reverse would apply to sell signals

 

[Sunil]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

ok, then i'll also experiment with the different % figures while making that excel file on Thursday...
we'll then decide....

as of now, I'll go with 70:30, as i want the trades to be "distinguished"
;-)

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Yes sir..me too thinking of the same level..thanks..

 

[rkkarnani]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

there have been situations where, for example, u buy at 3000. Next day it opens at 2920.
Now, what will u do - wait for 5min bar to be formed, apply room etc... u know, u r already into a loss trade...
if that 5min bar breaks down, we r out...
what if it breaks on uoside (but still far from our cost).... will u average your trade, hoping that gap will be filled...????!!!!
that's too much "I" into trades.......

I would go with the title of this thread - trade between 3pm and 10:30am....
if u r stopped out at open, u exit gracefully...
then trade remaining part of day (as u do usually, following any method u r comfy with), and wait for 3pm again, for such BTST/STBT trades....

Sunil, There is another aspect, I observed that a day opens adverse to our position, say as per your example we buy at 3000 , next day opens at 2920 goes down to 2900 in first 5 minutes but does not breach this low and moves up!!! Now we are in profit say by 10.30 but the trend continues and at 3 PM we find that we have closed within 70% of the days range..., we would go long here per our rules, we can easliy continue to hold our long position taken the previous day!!!
OR do we also add to our position as Saint does???

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Sunil, There is another aspect, I observed that a day opens adverse to our position, say as per your example we buy at 3000 , next day opens at 2920 goes down to 2900 in first 5 minutes but does not breach this low and moves up!!! Now we are in profit say by 10.30 but the trend continues and at 3 PM we find that we have closed within 70% of the days range..., we would go long here per our rules, we can easliy continue to hold our long position taken the previous day!!!
OR do we also add to our position as Saint does???

Karnani sir....i was also thinking that if the trend is in our side then we would hold the position as per saint sirs method...but even by the end of the day if the trend is in our favour we could probably first book the profits( not taking any chances) and then taking a fresh position at 3.15....

 

[nagendra_gb]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

today still holding longs and averaged now for longs

 

[subampsk]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Hi friends...Thought its time to start contributing to this wonderful forum in my most liked part (derivatives).

So this thread is really an inspirational one from the obervations of all my seniors and friends here especially after i had seen the kolkata meet videos...

The aim of this method or system would be very very simple..To trade the first half an hour and the last half an hour of the day.
Talking about the basics (That are derived from Ashish da's speech), the method would be to identify the high, low and closing of the day...Our day would typically begin at or after 3 pm..This is when we decide to sell or buy the nifty future.The calculation is simple...Consider the high of the day and the low of the day..At 3 pm(the approximate level that would be near the closing) we would calculate if the closing is 60% or more of the difference between the high and low of the day.If the closing is assumed to be around 60% or more then we buy nifty for the next day.In the same way if we find the % to be less than 50% then we sell nifty for the next day.

For example....if the high of the day is 3000,low is 2000 and the level at 3 pm is say 2700..
The difference between high and low = 3000 - 2000 = 1000
level at 3 pm = 2700 which would be 70 % of the difference between the high and the low..
In this case we would take a bullish insight and buy nifty only to sell it off the next day..The method should invariantly be called a BTST or a STBT one.

I have observed the trends for the above methodology and found it true for more than 80 % times...The only time we get stuck in such trades is when the % difference varies around say 30 % to 50%....on such days and all days ofcourse we would take a small amounts of risks which i would post soon..Hope all my seniors will keep track of this thread and give thier valuable insights and suggestions for all the juniors like me...Hope to learn a lot while this thread progresses....

how to calculate the percentage in calculator
1000/2700x100=37% this is correct
please guide to me