Patterns and Technicals

[AW10]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Sunil sir..i would think 60 % would be a good idea but to confirm as AW sir and karnani sir have said we can take 70 - 30 rule also...I just have one doubt with AW sir;s point...if we take the 90- 10 rule...can we trade every day???becoz we dont get these figures every day...i think we can stick to the following for now..

60 % = Buy with hedged position( less quantity)

70 % = Buy with or without hedge( Add quantity)

90 % and above = confirmed buy

The reverse would apply to sell signals

With 90-10% rule, we can't trade everyday. But we don't have to trade. As a trader, we got to look for high probabilty setups.. i.e. if that setup occurs, we know that we have better chance of winning.

I use 90-10 because, it shows the power, strength and momentum that buyers or sellers have shown at the close of mkt. And somethign which is in momentum, will continue to go in same direction .. our aim is to ride that momentum and get out when we the sign of weakeness. I will put this strategy more as mometum strategy.

In my view, 60% or 70% does not show that strength to convince me that it can continue tomorrow..

But as u mentioned, lets collect the data and summarise the finding for both.
My suggestion will be to use
1) 70-30 setup
2) 90-10 setup
3) use on nifty future - current month (may be from last monday of the month, start taking next months Futures data.)
4) Take 1 contract position


To keep it simple, I would prefer to avoid using position sizing at this stage. Once we have statistics in front of us, then people can decide whether to take the trade, hedge
it or not, or skip the trade.

Thats my view. Kamalesh. Hope this helps.

 

[AW10]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

AW10,
The idea u put behind the table (colour coding, etc) is fine, but i m afraid, u have taken SPOT values....
the Lows & Highs of SPOT are sometimes not as per actuals (especially when they are formed within 1st minute of trading).....
I'll use your idea of presentation, and try to apply it on Fut Data (i have readymade H-L-C data in excel) during last one year, and will post the result on Thursday (market holiday)



Kamalesh,
can u confirm/finalise the percantile figure we r looking for entering longs and short....
we can then incorporatise this into your Excel file, as Buy / Sell signal.

Sunil Sir.
Yes I have used SPOT data because thats what I have in my database. As you mentioned, futures data is the right data to use because thats the price what we trade.
Appreciate that u are ready to take up this excercise on futures data. I am sharing the excel sheet which I was using for this purpose. Just got to paste OHLC data and 90-10 days will be highilghted /flagged It is easy to enhance the sheet for other %.

Hiope this will save few minutes of your holiday time.

Happy Trading.

 

[AW10]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Sunil, There is another aspect, I observed that a day opens adverse to our position, say as per your example we buy at 3000 , next day opens at 2920 goes down to 2900 in first 5 minutes but does not breach this low and moves up!!! Now we are in profit say by 10.30 but the trend continues and at 3 PM we find that we have closed within 70% of the days range..., we would go long here per our rules, we can easliy continue to hold our long position taken the previous day!!!
OR do we also add to our position as Saint does???

I will put these points to address in Exit and Addon Rule section of strategy.. IMO, this is momentum strategy based on underlying concept of fast momentum. I am bit inclined towards Single entry, single exit approach. On next day, if we have another trigger then it is new trade.

But it is too early to say anything about this until we have some data with us. Then we can plug these variations and see the expected results.

Happy Trading.

 

[Satyen]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Wow kamlesh good initiative ...... long ago oilman5 had posted something like "Trend at 3 " .....looking forward to learn more from you people again does length of the candle from 9.55- 3.15 have any impact on this method ......??

Thanks

Regards
Satya

 

[nagendra_gb]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

So today am holding on to my longs for tomorrow .. today we got good profits since we did not covert to shorts.. so wht is the profit today as per our carry strategy.. is it
185 points ...

 

[sachinsamani]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Good Begining......

Regds,

Sachin

 

[Sunil]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

let's not count chickens - as even the eggs have not been laid...

I'll first buy the hen on thursday (holiday) and verify the "hatching" ratio of the eggs...

only then my cock will be excited (no pun intended)
;-)

Thanks AW10 for all ur inputs.
Second your views...

 

[Sunil]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

So today am holding on to my longs for tomorrow .. today we got good profits since we did not covert to shorts.. so wht is the profit today as per our carry strategy.. is it
185 points ...

Nagen, i would not see that as 185 points....
for sake of our analysis, we'll take the OPEN rate as our Target-1
after that, whether we carry long or go short or whatever (as per any personal method) is subjective....

This is how I take this method, and this is how one can backtest the method using only O-L-H-C data....

rest, i'll leave to Kamalesh, as this is HIS baby...
his views on this are more important

 

[columbus]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Nagen, i would not see that as 185 points....
for sake of our analysis, we'll take the OPEN rate as our Target-1
after that, whether we carry long or go short or whatever (as per any personal method) is subjective....

This is how I take this method, and this is how one can backtest the method using only O-L-H-C data....

rest, i'll leave to Kamalesh, as this is HIS baby...
his views on this are more important

ONLY closed positions should be taken into consideration.All carry forward positions ,will be taken into consideration ,only after they are closed.

 

[pkamalesh]

Re: Trading only one hour in a day !!!!!

Hi guys..im really sorry as i got stuck in the college...today was a wonderful day even to start back testing our system...Thank you seniors for all your inputs and ideas to make this system a better one...One thing i wanted to mention after i went through the posts here..can we do it this way..like today if we have carried our buy position all day long( we had great profits though), now to bring in the risk management to this...i would probably want to square off all positions( the current ones) and take a fresh position for tomorrow and not to carry our profitable positon for tomorrow....I think this would help in adverse conditions in the market the next day...and i just had another point to make...what if we take the 70 30 rule with a smaller lot size( as AW sir told us about the momentum) and when we get the signal for 90 10..we would go for a bigger lot size...plz lemme know ur views on this...