Price movements in the same direction?

[winstonn]

Hello Oxy,

can u test the reversal bars. More specifically this condition: suppose, if today is the reversal bar, what is the probability that tommorow ( only next single day ) the trend woud continue.

eg, yesterday's high , low, open , close for xyz stock is 105, 98, 100, 104
and today stock opens at 105 makes a high of 106 and closes at 102 ( lower than yesterda's close ) This is called negative reversal day.
Then what is the probability that the stock will go down ( trend will continue ) tommorow.

Also what is the result when the high of -ve reversal day is taken out and when the low of +ve reversal is taken out.

Reverse for positive reversal.

This could be useful for intraday trading.

waiting for your valuable conclusion.

~Winston

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Guys,

Attaching here a Report for 21/05/2007.

Third Column of the Report is The most important column to take note of...

Description Of The Third Column

BUY Signal is generated when the Third Colum figure changes to -8 going upto -15 for 'A' Group Stocks & alternatively going upto -18 for other Stocks.

Same applies for SELL Signal from +8 to +15 for 'A' Group upto +18 for Others.

Other times when it does go to -/+20 will probably not give one a chance to enter on the same day.

Therefore figure of the 3rd Column becomes vital in decision making considering the range indicated therein...and rest of the columns their..... are self explanatory.

Happy & Safe Trading

SavantGarde

 

[Venu_CA]

This thread was not started with the purpose of finding rules with probabilistic edge but to eliminate ones which do not have any. With the combination of OHLC or most derivatives of price, I doubt if there exists 1 with a significant edge (which is subjective), atleast in backtest.

I know atleast one thing with a very significant edge.
But unfortunately it may not work on shorter time frames.

Earnings Growth.

 

[uasish]

Ajay's logic is indisputable ,if yesterday's Price has got no relevance on today's price then how a DERIVATIVE of Price get relevance.
So all seasoned traders are trying to EXPAND input data from yesterday to y + ref(y,-1) + ref(y,-2) ........ ,or taking recourse of Historical price,becoz all these trader's get's Result in actual trading.(Here another indisputable logic of 'Results - attributed to Coin Toss' will step in).
SavantGarde , actually shown us a method (his unique method) absolutely based on yesterday's Price.
Venu_CA is falling back to FA (Financial Analysis),which is not in purview here.
Once again the classical syndrome ,(which i suffer from) Historical price has relevance ? Results (win/loss) Random ?

The list is valid for Friday only (Friday's data not updated here)

 

[kkseal]

Once again the classical syndrome ,(which i suffer from) Historical price has relevance ? Results (win/loss) Random ?

It has, but only when viewed in proper perspective. Random view ---> Random results.

Even Savant's method has a perspective - that of Std Deviation from the mean (An uptrend/downtrend is when the mean itself is trending up/down).

The earnings that Venu refers to is also historical in nature (the March qtr earnings still being flashed on TV channels is actually already 2 mths old) This too has to be viewed in the proper perspective - the past & it's possible continuation into the future.

In trading/investing we actually bet on the future based on the past That is why the overall perspective is important - to make use of the past to assess the future.

Regards,
Kalyan.

P.S. : All this is not to undermine the importance of the bar - the lowest level fractal.

 

[SavantGarde]

Here is yet another example of a different Type of Calculation from the one I posted earlier & Probably a nice example of How To Lock In Profits and let the exits take care of your Profits....based on OHLCV suitable for Futures Trading.

Let me know if any of you want me to post for any other Scrip, if I have it on my Trading Watch List, then I shall Post it definitely.

Happy & Safe Trading

SavantGarde

P.S. The File is updated as of 18-05-2007 & not as the heading suggests 05-04-2007

 

[uasish]

Here is what "Bear's Zone" reflects on 500 Bars.
Savanth_Grade has a beautiful system ,Kalyan is having a good method,every one it seems, approached the problem of 'Random' based on yesterday's price.

 

[kkseal]

Here is yet another example of a different Type of Calculation from the one I posted earlier & Probably a nice example of How To Lock In Profits and let the exits take care of your Profits....based on OHLCV suitable for Futures Trading.

Let me know if any of you want me to post for any other Scrip, if I have it on my Trading Watch List, then I shall Post it definitely.

Happy & Safe Trading

SavantGarde

P.S. The File is updated as of 18-05-2007 & not as the heading suggests 05-04-2007

Is this one based on OHLC alone or are you also making use of BBs?

Also which one is the Stop Loss, Stop3 or Stop4?

Regards,
Kalyan.

 

[uasish]

After many week got an imp task to complete.These are 2 more indicators after Bear's Zone & Bear's Grip.

 

[SavantGarde]

Is this one based on OHLC alone or are you also making use of BBs?

Also which one is the Stop Loss, Stop3 or Stop4?

Regards,
Kalyan.

Hi Kalyan,

To answer your Last question First, one should ideally follow only one of the Stops, in my experience following either will give you the same returns over a 12 month period.

And now to answer your first question, it is not based entirely on OHLCV, there is OBV, MFI, William's %RN - Modified to an extent over some period, basically to be on the Right Side of The Smart Money in our markets...which is what actually moves a particular Stock & Index depending on the Weightage of the same......& Yes, there is no BB involved, BB is referred to separately to confirm in some instances....anything that might be going on through my mind....about a particular move of a Stock.

Basically Test-A & Test-B Column are the ones to keep a watch on.

For Some of The Stock & Index Futures I have Columns desiganted as Stop-1 & Stop-2, otherwise most of the other stocks on my Trade & Watch List has only Stop-3 & Stop-4....which is something I have done it deliberately with past experience.

Happy & Safe Trading

SavantGarde