Sector Rotation

[deb99891]

For the day ended 8 July 2008:

[B]Best Performing:[/B]
                                  Values       ROC (20 day)
1) Pharma                          88.6783     -04.9029    
2) Software                        78.6495     -05.1762
3) Oil Exp                         73.7963     -06.9624
 
[B]Worst Performing:[/B]
1) Real Estate                    35.2836     -19.5409
2) Cables                         40.8156     -15.0333
3) Civil Construction             42.0382     -16.8440

Nifty                             64.9149     -10.3656

nice work oxy
i am trying to develop my knowledge base .....
so that ur good analysis turn real fruitfull for me as well

 

[Pchartis]

Hello deb99891
I am novice to TA and has some queries.Where can I get all timeframes charts for different sectors on net. And secondly if I found out 7-8 scripts which are in uptrend with favourable risk-reward ratio but because of limited capital I could trade only 2 to 3 max, then what would be my criterio to find the best amongst them.
Hope I am not botering you, looking forward for reply
Regards

 

[kkseal]

oxy,,

one thing i noticed..
in ur reports,,,simple,,,real estate is slowing down,,,its performnace in negtaive zone..trying to capitalize ur readings ,, but failing,,

secondly now we se ehow scetor of sugar performs,,,i think now it will turn neg

renu

Keep an eye on the ROC as well That's getting better for RE. So the short-&-forget days may be over However you're still likely to get some 'outperformance' on mkt down legs.

Regards

 

[beginner_av]

This is a very good method.

But with similar methods, there are quite a few pitfalls. my statistics knowledge is not even 0.1% of Oxy. But let me humbly clarify in plain English Sir that this is JUST a relative picture of the mkt, more often correct than wrong. But it is JUST that, nothing more. So use it carefully. as with any statistics, it can be a damn lie.

anyway, to give an example of how you may be mislead, On your base date, you start with a sector that never participated in the bull run, and was at the bottom. now along with all sectors on the base date, if you are giving it a score of 100 and the other sectors (which went much higher) corrects a lot, the ROC score will show this as a relative strong sector than others. Similarly there are other pitfalls. Once you understand them, you will be happier with these type of relative scoring.

 

[kkseal]

Right BAV There are pitfalls associated with the choice of base date. Like if one chooses 2003 as the base date then Realty, cap goods may still appear stronger, particularly on an absolute basis. The ROC alleviates this somewhat but has it's own 'jaggedness', rough edges.

This is just to see if the idea is worth pursuing. If so, we can try to come up with better models.*

Regards

*I'm sure Oxy has one up his sleeve & CV is probably using one

 

[beginner_av]

oxy will have very robust method, that we cant even begin to create and CV will have something that will signal the sectors 1 month before they move!!!

 

[kkseal]

oxy will have very robust method, that we cant even begin to create and CV will have something that will signal the sectors 1 month before they move!!!

And BAV is very humbly excluding himself

 

[oxusmorouz]

Apologies for not being able to update for the last two days.

For the day ended 11 July 2008:


Absolute Basis:

[B]Best Performing:[/B]
                                  Values       ROC (20 day)
1) Pharma                          89.4910     -06.6537    
2) Software                        76.7400     -09.4886
3) Oil Exp                         75.1670     -06.7985
 
[B]Worst Performing:[/B]
1) Real Estate                    36.1123     -20.5544
2) Cables                         42.3388     -13.8880
3) Civil Construction             42.8174     -15.8901

Nifty                             65.8979     -10.3628

Relative Basis:

[B]Strongest:[/B]
                                  ROC (20 day)
1) Sugar                          -01.5511    
2) Pharma                         -06.6537
3) Oil Exp                        -07.6861
 
[B]Weakest:[/B]
1) Real Estate                    -20.5544
2) Fertilizers                    -19.7369
3) Aluminium                      -19.2986

Nifty                             -10.3628

 

[oxusmorouz]

anyway, to give an example of how you may be mislead, On your base date, you start with a sector that never participated in the bull run, and was at the bottom. now along with all sectors on the base date, if you are giving it a score of 100 and the other sectors (which went much higher) corrects a lot, the ROC score will show this as a relative strong sector than others. Similarly there are other pitfalls. Once you understand them, you will be happier with these type of relative scoring.

Yes BAV, that is entirely correct.

 

[oxusmorouz]

For the day ended 14 July 2008.

[b]Rank	Sector Name	Absolute	ROC 20[/b]
1	Pharma	        88.7968	      -08.3391
2	Oil Exp         74.9807	      -08.6166
3	FMCG	        74.7749	      -08.4732
4	Aluminum	74.2932	      -17.6216
5	Software	74.0405	      -13.7111
6	Sugar	        73.2399	      -05.4608
7	Nifty	        65.7466	      -11.6523
8	Steel	        62.5921	      -13.4764
9	Auto	        61.4883	      -10.7000
10	Telecom	        59.9331	      -15.1208
11	Retail          58.3714	      -12.6190
12	Fertiliz	57.7118	      -21.3502
13	AutoAnci	56.2963	      -15.7217
14	Cements	        54.5603	      -09.5618
15	PVTBK	        54.2008	      -16.9475
16	Refineri        52.8362	      -11.0880
17	Shipping	52.5225	      -18.1200
18	Engineer	52.374	      -13.3915
19	Power	        52.0392	      -12.8604
20	Hardware	51.3905	      -18.7223
21	Hotels	        51.1302	      -15.0856
22	Media	        50.9634	      -16.3401
23	PSUBK	        48.9872	      -15.4866
24	Textiles	48.6895       -16.8136
25	ConCivil	42.1568	      -18.2059
26	Cables	        41.2954	      -17.3761
27	RealEst	        35.6311	      -22.7523