Weekly Review--090411
EUR/USD: This pair should begin the week correcting the DOWN it is in, as it should see the WR1 at 1.4302, and even allowing for a spike up to 1.4340. Afterward, we should see the trip south resume, to the WS1 at 1.4102, and possibly the WS2 at 1.4001.
Longer term, this pair has done a lot of consolidating on top of the monthly cloud. It is due for a breakout. Right now the monthly tenken is 1.3922, and the top of the cloud is 1.3869. We should look for a huge reversal at or before those points.
The pair never made it to the WR1, as the peak was 1.4252.. We did have the breakaway, but to the downside, as the bottom of the cloud (1.3838) was taken out. The dip was 1.3625.
USD/JPY: This pair is due for another breakout going south. Before that happens it may need some space and breakout going north to build up some steam. There is a very strong cluster event at 78.32, and it should contain. One way or the other, the doors should get blown off my S&Rs this week, so even though they could present some trading opportunities. I would treat things more as an open field for this pair this week.
Containment help up as the peak was 77.85.
GBP/USD: Current level should contain at the beginning of the week. As a matter a fact, the squeeze looks like it could be put on this pair. Look for the daily TK combo at circa 1.6363 to be possible containment, even allowing for a spike to my WR2 at 1.6391.
There is very strong support at 1.5781, just in case this pair makes it that low. Im not implying that is going to happen this week.
I may not have implied it, but it sure came close as the dip was 1.5841.
USD/CHF: The daily kijun at .7652 still needs to be hit. On the upside I would look for the WR1 at .8029 to contain. Its favorable for the kijun to be hit this week.
The daily kijun was hit this week, but it rose to .7848, and the dip was .7819. That happened on Monday, which propelled the flight to the peak at .8862.
EUR/CHF: The 4-hour kijun is 1.1485 and the WR1 is 1.1461. It is that area that should contain the upside this week. The reversal should see the WS1 hit at 1.0926.
It was on Tuesday this pair had a strong 1,000-pip move on the 4-hour candle. The dip was 1.1013. If that looks like a long ways off, it was 61.8% of WP>WS1. The peak was 6 pips on the other side of the WR3 (1.2078) at 1.2084. Having said all that, I did miss it again on this pair.
AUD/USD: The daily cloud upheld well last week and should continue to do so this week. A firm break under 1.0600 will accentuate the downside process and take the pair to the daily tenken at 1.0562 and the kijun at 1.0494. We will probably get a correction up to the WR1 at 1.0694. That has to contain, and would even allow for a spike up to 1.0710. As long as that is the case, then the daily kijun could be hit this week.
The 1.0494 level was originally containment, as the dip was 1.0480. The accentuation process eventually took this pair to the dip for the week at 1.0419.
USD/CAD: This pair should be nice for some channel trading this week. Even though it is expected to see a rise higher in the future, that is probably not going to happen this week. Even the S&Rs are telling the story. Downside containment is .9707, and the WS3 is .9714. Last months top at 1.0008 does not figure to be pierced this week, and the WR3 is .9982. Yes, it figures to be a narrow trading week this week.
The channel got tighter, as the dip was .9827. The peak was .9878, missing the WR3 by 4 pips.
NZD/USD: Upside momentum has given out again and a firm break of .8427 will confirm that and bring a trend reversal. That would be the favorable scenario which would bring a drop to the WS2 at .8351 and even the WS3 at .8265.
We had back-to-back huge daily candle that took out .8427, and sent the pair spiraling to .8188.
EUR/GBP: This pair has broken below the 4-hour cloud, but not convincing enough to bring a conviction of price action. With the tenken and kijun pointing due south, it could mean well get a headfake back in the cloud, and then proceed further south. That being the case, I would look for the WR1 at .8797 to contain price action to the north, and then bring on another drop. As long as the WR1 contains, then it puts the WS2 on the radar at .8683. The monthly tenken is .8692, so that area should be rather solid containment for this week.
The MS3 at .8594 was needed to contain this weeks price action.
EUR/JPY: You would think after 4 solid southbound candles on the daily that this pair is solidly in the DOWN, right? Wrong! A look at the weekly shows we are still eastbound, and that trend will continue this week. The thing that leaves you leery about this pair is that we have had a firm break of the weekly cloud and it could result in a sharp breakaway south. The problem is the pair got the squeeze put on it, which is why is seems indecisive. Expect a correction to start the week to the WR1 at 109.92, and for the WR2 at 110.77 to act as possible containment.
The WR1 did contain as the peak was 109.94. WE alos got the breakaway south to the dip at 105.27, so my leeriness of the southbound action was validated.
GBP/JPY: This pair is still losing the battle with the weekly TL. The favored scenario is still to see a correction of the weekly chart magnitude before we see another strong break to the south. The WR2 at 125.84 becomes a deciding point this week. Either it contains, or the pair gets outs of its funk and we break higher for a correction that will build up to another sharp drop south.
The peak was 125.03, 14 pips under the WR1. We did get the break further south as the pair dipped to 122.31.
EUR/USD: This pair should begin the week correcting the DOWN it is in, as it should see the WR1 at 1.4302, and even allowing for a spike up to 1.4340. Afterward, we should see the trip south resume, to the WS1 at 1.4102, and possibly the WS2 at 1.4001.
Longer term, this pair has done a lot of consolidating on top of the monthly cloud. It is due for a breakout. Right now the monthly tenken is 1.3922, and the top of the cloud is 1.3869. We should look for a huge reversal at or before those points.
The pair never made it to the WR1, as the peak was 1.4252.. We did have the breakaway, but to the downside, as the bottom of the cloud (1.3838) was taken out. The dip was 1.3625.
USD/JPY: This pair is due for another breakout going south. Before that happens it may need some space and breakout going north to build up some steam. There is a very strong cluster event at 78.32, and it should contain. One way or the other, the doors should get blown off my S&Rs this week, so even though they could present some trading opportunities. I would treat things more as an open field for this pair this week.
Containment help up as the peak was 77.85.
GBP/USD: Current level should contain at the beginning of the week. As a matter a fact, the squeeze looks like it could be put on this pair. Look for the daily TK combo at circa 1.6363 to be possible containment, even allowing for a spike to my WR2 at 1.6391.
There is very strong support at 1.5781, just in case this pair makes it that low. Im not implying that is going to happen this week.
I may not have implied it, but it sure came close as the dip was 1.5841.
USD/CHF: The daily kijun at .7652 still needs to be hit. On the upside I would look for the WR1 at .8029 to contain. Its favorable for the kijun to be hit this week.
The daily kijun was hit this week, but it rose to .7848, and the dip was .7819. That happened on Monday, which propelled the flight to the peak at .8862.
EUR/CHF: The 4-hour kijun is 1.1485 and the WR1 is 1.1461. It is that area that should contain the upside this week. The reversal should see the WS1 hit at 1.0926.
It was on Tuesday this pair had a strong 1,000-pip move on the 4-hour candle. The dip was 1.1013. If that looks like a long ways off, it was 61.8% of WP>WS1. The peak was 6 pips on the other side of the WR3 (1.2078) at 1.2084. Having said all that, I did miss it again on this pair.
AUD/USD: The daily cloud upheld well last week and should continue to do so this week. A firm break under 1.0600 will accentuate the downside process and take the pair to the daily tenken at 1.0562 and the kijun at 1.0494. We will probably get a correction up to the WR1 at 1.0694. That has to contain, and would even allow for a spike up to 1.0710. As long as that is the case, then the daily kijun could be hit this week.
The 1.0494 level was originally containment, as the dip was 1.0480. The accentuation process eventually took this pair to the dip for the week at 1.0419.
USD/CAD: This pair should be nice for some channel trading this week. Even though it is expected to see a rise higher in the future, that is probably not going to happen this week. Even the S&Rs are telling the story. Downside containment is .9707, and the WS3 is .9714. Last months top at 1.0008 does not figure to be pierced this week, and the WR3 is .9982. Yes, it figures to be a narrow trading week this week.
The channel got tighter, as the dip was .9827. The peak was .9878, missing the WR3 by 4 pips.
NZD/USD: Upside momentum has given out again and a firm break of .8427 will confirm that and bring a trend reversal. That would be the favorable scenario which would bring a drop to the WS2 at .8351 and even the WS3 at .8265.
We had back-to-back huge daily candle that took out .8427, and sent the pair spiraling to .8188.
EUR/GBP: This pair has broken below the 4-hour cloud, but not convincing enough to bring a conviction of price action. With the tenken and kijun pointing due south, it could mean well get a headfake back in the cloud, and then proceed further south. That being the case, I would look for the WR1 at .8797 to contain price action to the north, and then bring on another drop. As long as the WR1 contains, then it puts the WS2 on the radar at .8683. The monthly tenken is .8692, so that area should be rather solid containment for this week.
The MS3 at .8594 was needed to contain this weeks price action.
EUR/JPY: You would think after 4 solid southbound candles on the daily that this pair is solidly in the DOWN, right? Wrong! A look at the weekly shows we are still eastbound, and that trend will continue this week. The thing that leaves you leery about this pair is that we have had a firm break of the weekly cloud and it could result in a sharp breakaway south. The problem is the pair got the squeeze put on it, which is why is seems indecisive. Expect a correction to start the week to the WR1 at 109.92, and for the WR2 at 110.77 to act as possible containment.
The WR1 did contain as the peak was 109.94. WE alos got the breakaway south to the dip at 105.27, so my leeriness of the southbound action was validated.
GBP/JPY: This pair is still losing the battle with the weekly TL. The favored scenario is still to see a correction of the weekly chart magnitude before we see another strong break to the south. The WR2 at 125.84 becomes a deciding point this week. Either it contains, or the pair gets outs of its funk and we break higher for a correction that will build up to another sharp drop south.
The peak was 125.03, 14 pips under the WR1. We did get the break further south as the pair dipped to 122.31.
