Some of my forecasts
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There's the picture of what I had been talking about in the previous Weekly Forecasts. I had been talking about a breakout for this pair, adn that it was necessary for it to break to the upside to stir things about a bit.
Here's the first sentence of this week's forecast: This pair is still waiting for the breakout, as it has been very tight for it lately.
The breakout we had been waiting for was the one to the upside that I mentioned in a previous WF.
This is what happens when things get tightly consolidated like they had been since the first part of August. Of late, the high-low range for the week had been about the average daily range. What it means is a market had lost interest in the trend, and was just waiting to break out of the funk it was in. The other thing was the move away from equilibrium (the cloud). There was room more for a breakout on the reversal than in the trend.
The bad thing is that it is not a done deal that it was going to break out heading north. I don't think anyone could have known for a fact the exact day it was going to happen. Therefore, I did not view this move as a trading opportunity, at least for me.
The nice thing is that now that it has made some room for itself, definitive trading opportunities will be forthcoming for this pair.
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There's the picture of what I had been talking about in the previous Weekly Forecasts. I had been talking about a breakout for this pair, adn that it was necessary for it to break to the upside to stir things about a bit.
Here's the first sentence of this week's forecast: This pair is still waiting for the breakout, as it has been very tight for it lately.
The breakout we had been waiting for was the one to the upside that I mentioned in a previous WF.
This is what happens when things get tightly consolidated like they had been since the first part of August. Of late, the high-low range for the week had been about the average daily range. What it means is a market had lost interest in the trend, and was just waiting to break out of the funk it was in. The other thing was the move away from equilibrium (the cloud). There was room more for a breakout on the reversal than in the trend.
The bad thing is that it is not a done deal that it was going to break out heading north. I don't think anyone could have known for a fact the exact day it was going to happen. Therefore, I did not view this move as a trading opportunity, at least for me.
The nice thing is that now that it has made some room for itself, definitive trading opportunities will be forthcoming for this pair.
This event tells us no matter how strong a trader is good in analysis, if he or she doesn't follow MM then its the end.
Regards
Had gone long on friday seeing that it was holding support and divergence on bigger time frames. I wake up to see a big bar all out of nowhere. Curse my luck since Id already given an exit price and missed out the big move. Demo trade ofcourse.
Happy that divergence and lower support buying in U/C on friday working well too.
Questions. Such a big bar in U/J.. Should we immediately short it ? Since there is bound to be some retracement?
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There's the picture of what I had been talking about in the previous Weekly Forecasts. I had been talking about a breakout for this pair, adn that it was necessary for it to break to the upside to stir things about a bit.
Here's the first sentence of this week's forecast: This pair is still waiting for the breakout, as it has been very tight for it lately.
The breakout we had been waiting for was the one to the upside that I mentioned in a previous WF.
This is what happens when things get tightly consolidated like they had been since the first part of August. Of late, the high-low range for the week had been about the average daily range. What it means is a market had lost interest in the trend, and was just waiting to break out of the funk it was in. The other thing was the move away from equilibrium (the cloud). There was room more for a breakout on the reversal than in the trend.
The bad thing is that it is not a done deal that it was going to break out heading north. I don't think anyone could have known for a fact the exact day it was going to happen. Therefore, I did not view this move as a trading opportunity, at least for me.
The nice thing is that now that it has made some room for itself, definitive trading opportunities will be forthcoming for this pair.
Happy that divergence and lower support buying in U/C on friday working well too.
Questions. Such a big bar in U/J.. Should we immediately short it ? Since there is bound to be some retracement?
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
There's the picture of what I had been talking about in the previous Weekly Forecasts. I had been talking about a breakout for this pair, adn that it was necessary for it to break to the upside to stir things about a bit.
Here's the first sentence of this week's forecast: This pair is still waiting for the breakout, as it has been very tight for it lately.
The breakout we had been waiting for was the one to the upside that I mentioned in a previous WF.
This is what happens when things get tightly consolidated like they had been since the first part of August. Of late, the high-low range for the week had been about the average daily range. What it means is a market had lost interest in the trend, and was just waiting to break out of the funk it was in. The other thing was the move away from equilibrium (the cloud). There was room more for a breakout on the reversal than in the trend.
The bad thing is that it is not a done deal that it was going to break out heading north. I don't think anyone could have known for a fact the exact day it was going to happen. Therefore, I did not view this move as a trading opportunity, at least for me.
The nice thing is that now that it has made some room for itself, definitive trading opportunities will be forthcoming for this pair.
This is my personal view and this is how I want to trade (but I end up doing wrong things many times), Paul will clarify further.
We should never short or can enter long when the move is ongoing and we dont know the depth of it. We can only short when it consolidates and after the start of correction.
Anything premature (be it a strong support or resistance), we have to wait long time. If we follow sound MM then it should be a less concern.
Regards
Raj
We should never short or can enter long when the move is ongoing and we dont know the depth of it. We can only short when it consolidates and after the start of correction.
Anything premature (be it a strong support or resistance), we have to wait long time. If we follow sound MM then it should be a less concern.
Regards
Raj
Time for a much larger correction?
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I got interrupted with the normal flow of things with an excellent point someone made in an e-mail that was sent me.
I have not been very fond of steep graded TL's. Again, let's consider the properties of a proper TL:
1. TL is broken with a longer than usual candle.
2. Correction is between the point of the break to the TL.
3, The new trend continues after the correction.
On very steep TL's there can be false breaks, and there can also be legitimate breaks, but the correction could go a long way, because the maximum point of the correction is actually hitting the TL.
This is why I drew what would supposed to be the correct TL with the lighter blue line through the 1st swing high, but then drawing the actual (in this case) TL through the 2nd swing high in order to create a less steeper TL. The 3rd TL was drawn in order to take in the larger picture to show that if we get a strong move back into the UP that it would mark the return to the UP.
The point is it seems a little more practical that the 1st TL is the legitimate one, but notice no correction has been made yet. Do you remember the discussion we had concerning the USD/CAD and why we could have a correction to the mid-.9500's?
This correction appears to be something that is going to entail a much more wider range type of correction and a move back in the UP. As long as that is the case, then this correction is going to at least 1.3421.
I'm going to make another point about this pair while I'm talking about it. As per my Weekly Forecast, the pair has almost hit the cluster event at 1.4018, which includes my WS1. WE were only 4 pips from it as of this writing, but look for a reaction at that point.
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I got interrupted with the normal flow of things with an excellent point someone made in an e-mail that was sent me.
I have not been very fond of steep graded TL's. Again, let's consider the properties of a proper TL:
1. TL is broken with a longer than usual candle.
2. Correction is between the point of the break to the TL.
3, The new trend continues after the correction.
On very steep TL's there can be false breaks, and there can also be legitimate breaks, but the correction could go a long way, because the maximum point of the correction is actually hitting the TL.
This is why I drew what would supposed to be the correct TL with the lighter blue line through the 1st swing high, but then drawing the actual (in this case) TL through the 2nd swing high in order to create a less steeper TL. The 3rd TL was drawn in order to take in the larger picture to show that if we get a strong move back into the UP that it would mark the return to the UP.
The point is it seems a little more practical that the 1st TL is the legitimate one, but notice no correction has been made yet. Do you remember the discussion we had concerning the USD/CAD and why we could have a correction to the mid-.9500's?
This correction appears to be something that is going to entail a much more wider range type of correction and a move back in the UP. As long as that is the case, then this correction is going to at least 1.3421.
I'm going to make another point about this pair while I'm talking about it. As per my Weekly Forecast, the pair has almost hit the cluster event at 1.4018, which includes my WS1. WE were only 4 pips from it as of this writing, but look for a reaction at that point.
Re: Aud/usd
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The TL's have to be drawn within context or they will invariably lie to you.
The black line was drawn correctly on the 4-hour, while the blue was drawn off the daily. As per your chart, price action broke the TL, then went right back over the top. The problem was it's the daily TL that is shown on the 4-hour chart. If you open the daily chart, you will notice a perfect hit on the TL, then the bounce.
My analysis on Nifty is coming next.
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The TL's have to be drawn within context or they will invariably lie to you.
The black line was drawn correctly on the 4-hour, while the blue was drawn off the daily. As per your chart, price action broke the TL, then went right back over the top. The problem was it's the daily TL that is shown on the 4-hour chart. If you open the daily chart, you will notice a perfect hit on the TL, then the bounce.
My analysis on Nifty is coming next.
Last edited:
Nifty
The WR1 at 5471 should contain this week. That is also the proximity of the bottom of the weekly cloud and the TL drawn from the weekly. The reversal appears as if it is going to be sharp.
For this week, watch for the WS2 at 5197 to contain the downside, which is also the proximity of the daily top.
I remind you that is the analysis concerning Nifty seems vague, it is because the charts were sent to me by one of our members via my e-mail. I'm keeping his name private, because he sends me the charts privately. Nevertheless, I'm thankful, but do remember I cannot see the actual amounts.
The WR1 at 5471 should contain this week. That is also the proximity of the bottom of the weekly cloud and the TL drawn from the weekly. The reversal appears as if it is going to be sharp.
For this week, watch for the WS2 at 5197 to contain the downside, which is also the proximity of the daily top.
I remind you that is the analysis concerning Nifty seems vague, it is because the charts were sent to me by one of our members via my e-mail. I'm keeping his name private, because he sends me the charts privately. Nevertheless, I'm thankful, but do remember I cannot see the actual amounts.
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