Weekly Review--102311
EUR/USD: The WR2 at 1.4037 is containment this week, and it may not be hit. The pair is preparing for a reversal, but the longer it takes the lesser the impact it will have. The bottom of the daily cloud is 1.3946, top is 1.4020. The yearly trend cycle is finished at 1.3973. That is not necessarily an R, but it is a level that should make the antennas go up to signal a reversal is close.
<b>Originally, the peak at 1.3974 seem to be as if it was going to be it. That was until it took off on Thursday to the peak at 1.4246. </b>
USD/JPY: Fridays candle looks huge, but in the light of recent pricing activity, it is not really that big a move. We did get another (what appears to be) strong bounce off the bottom of the daily cloud, and the pair is scheduled to head north to start the week. Nevertheless, a tight eastward motion is still on the radar until something significant happens to this pair. Unless 77.32 is taken out convincingly, it will probably be more of the same this week. The pair is in a wide range southerly channel on the weekly and monthly and that would be further confirmed at the circa 77.32 level.
<b>This pair continues to be a snoozer. It did not come close to 77.32, as the peak was 76.46, and the dip was only 75.65. </b>
GBP/USD: This pair has some strong similarities to the EUR/USD. The WR2 at 1.6137 is containment saving for any spike up to 1.6165, which is the years trends cycle completion mark. The bottom of the thin daily cloud is 1.6056 and the top is 1.6160. It is favored to see the pair do some correction to start the week. The WS1 at 1.5852 is ideal containment to the south. If that contains, then the trip north should be completed this week.
<b>The dip did not quite make it to the WS1 as it was 1.5890. It was a textbook week, as the peak was 1.6151, with a wick only hit on the WR2.</b>
USD/CHF: This pair is headed south. Unlike its cousins, cable and fiber, it has a ways to go in its trend. A correction will begin the week that will take the pair to the WR1 at .8898, and possibly the WR2 at .8974. The WR2 is a cluster event, and is sure to contain. As it heads south, the weekly tenken at .8512 is well in view and even the kijun at .8190. Considering the WS3 is .8544, it is assumed, and rightly so, that neither of those marks will be hit this week.
<b>The pair came a little short of the WR1, as the peak was .8876. The WS3 was not hit, but we sure came close as the dip was .8567</b>
EUR/CHF: It appears to me the reversal is underway for this pair. That being the case, then the top of the daily cloud is an easy target at 1.1847. The weekly tenken at 1.1735 should also be hit, but not this week, of course. WE might see a correction back to the 4-hout kijun at 1.2337 and the WR1 at 1.2329. That is a strong R zone, and if this is the beginning of the DOWN, then that level contains.
<b> This was a very tight week for this pair. The peak was 1.2305, but the dip was contained by the WS1 (1.2183) with only a wick spike to the dip at 1.2156</b>
AUD/USD: The daily cloud is only 74 pips wide at 1.04271.0501, so that area should contain for a MT reversal. A check of the S&R levels shows the WR1 and WR2 at 1.0448 and 1.0520, respectively. It will be that area that will contain this weeks price action.
<b>We got the applicable bounces off the WR1 and WR2. The pair headed to the dip at 1.0322, as the 4-hour TL contained for an unreal move north to 1.0753. </b>
USD/CAD: This pair should revisit the sub-parity region again this week. After all, WS1 is 1.0000. It could dip further to the WS2 at .9938. The bottom of the 4-hour cloud is 1.0162, so that should be containment. MT, watch for a strong reaction at .9887. That is the top of the daily cloud.
<b>We definitely got a reaction near .9887, but it was weak, thus far. The dip was 4 pips above that level at .9891.</b>
NZD/USD: This pair is looking very volatile for this week and over coming weeks. The weekly kijun is .8152. That could contain, or we could also see a violent push all the way to .8295. Regardless of how the week unfolds, circa .7900 appears to be containment for quite awhile.
<b>This pair performed as volatile as expected. It was a WS2 (.7914) and WR3 (.8240) range for the week, as the dip was .7913 (1 pip below the WS2, 13 above the containment level.), and the peak was .8241 (1 pip above the WR3.).
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EUR/GBP: This pair is bracing itself for another shot at .9000 over the MT. For this week, the daily kijun at .8662, and maybe the WS2 at .8635 should contain. There are mixed indication for this pair, so things look consolidative over the next few weeks.
<b>I thought this pair was going to get it done this week the way it took off to the peak at .8830 from the dip at .8671.</b>
EUR/JPY: We have had a daily TL break to the downside for this pair, but what makes it look deceitful is that it broke it going sideways, so it may not be the real deal. If we do get the move south, then the daily kijun at 104.19 should be containment. The WS2 is 104.38, so if we get to that circa, then that zone will contain. Ultimately, this should be a build up towards the weekly kijun TL combo at 111.27. That should be MT containment for what should present another fall that will take us under 100.00.
<b>As it turned out, the TL break was deceitful, even though the pair headed to the dip to start the week at 104.74 before heading to the peak at 108.12.</b>
GBP/JPY: This pair is stuck in a triangle on the 4-hour with boundaries of 120.71 and 121.98. It is favorable to see a break to the upside, and for the pair to continue north to 124.63, possibly higher over the MT. This week, look for the WR2 at 123.02 to be hit.
<b>We had only a wick break of the downside on the triangle to 120.68, and then the upper part was broken as it headed to the peak at 122.50. The only drawback was it was a comparatively tight week for a breakaway. </b>
