Some of my forecasts

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Nzd/usd

Of all the USD pairs, this pair looks like its move could be the most dramatic.
As I'm writing this, the pair is camped at the WR3 at .8240. The TK combo on the 4-hour at .8077 is easily on the radar. If you like huge divergences then watch the stochastics on the daily. Once it crosses, then we'll have it, and the drop should take us to .7955. This drop looks corrective, but is could also end up at cluster S at .7857.
 
Re: Nzd/usd

Of all the USD pairs, this pair looks like its move could be the most dramatic.
As I'm writing this, the pair is camped at the WR3 at .8240. The TK combo on the 4-hour at .8077 is easily on the radar. If you like huge divergences then watch the stochastics on the daily. Once it crosses, then we'll have it, and the drop should take us to .7955. This drop looks corrective, but is could also end up at cluster S at .7857.
Hi ,Mr paul 8077 is also the area where the correction for the trend line breaks gets completed right ? I am surprised we are still looking for the daily kinjun!
 
Re: Eur/usd

This pair has flown high above every cloud from the 4-hour on down. It has shot through every extreme from the daily on down. Is OB or virtually OB on every TF from the daily DOWN. The weekly kijun at 1.4041 was taken out like it is not there. We still have one more day in the week for that move to be corrected. This pair has to be headed south to close the week. There is now cluster S at 1.3966. If that is broken, then there is no mistaken the fact we are headed much lower. The daily kijun at 1.3659 should still contain the correction.
Mr paul I was looking for 1.4021 (top of the daily cloud, H4 kinjun and weekly kinjun) maximum the daily tenken to be hit before we resume the uptrend! The daily kinjun would be a break below the cloud again ?! !
 
Re: Nzd/usd

FW, the kijun, like all indicators, is dynamic. We may have been looking for it before, but it was at a different level before.
Also, if the market was ready to bust before, then it is all the more the case right now. There are some additional supports in the way.


Hi ,Mr paul 8077 is also the area where the correction for the trend line breaks gets completed right ? I am surprised we are still looking for the daily kinjun!
 
Re: Eur/usd

Hang on for the ride. Things are not always as cut-n-dry as they seem. Current cloud top is 1.3966. By Tuesday, it will be 1.3954, and by Tuesday of the following week, it will be 1.3846. It is also add the peak of the SD channel. Price action will also be subject to a volatile mix.


Mr paul I was looking for 1.4021 (top of the daily cloud, H4 kinjun and weekly kinjun) maximum the daily tenken to be hit before we resume the uptrend! The daily kinjun would be a break below the cloud again ?! !
 

hills_5000

Well-Known Member
Re: Eur/usd

Paul in your experience what is the time frame that the E/U pair takes to gravitate back to the cloud and the span A at 3761 ? .. I know you answered for this present event , but normally is that the amount of time it takes?

reverts
Hang on for the ride. Things are not always as cut-n-dry as they seem. Current cloud top is 1.3966. By Tuesday, it will be 1.3954, and by Tuesday of the following week, it will be 1.3846. It is also add the peak of the SD channel. Price action will also be subject to a volatile mix.
 


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This chart should add some credence to my view.

The white arrows point to the top of the cloud where it is now, and where it will be by Tuesday of the following week.
The lines I drew are not necessarily supports, but targets relative to what can be seen. According to the stochastics, the market is OB on this daily. Minimum expectation would be the tenken, which is the 1st blue line, which also matches nicely with the bottom of the cloud. What is also a practical objective is for the price to hit the kijun (2nd blue line), which means a couple of weeks from now it would still be inside the cloud.
After price has pushed down, we will have a stochastic divergency, and the peak from the previous OB condition is noticed with the light blue line.
Forecasting is not necessarily what we see in the moment, but is projectionary by nature.

In addition, I'll add that chart patternists and the Elliot Wave people would be much more bearish than I am on this market. They might be looking at a 78.4% Fibo retracement, which forms a bearish gartley, and we are headed for fresh lows.
I surely welcome the input of anyone that has a background in this area.
 
"Using Ichi what is the best way of marking past resistances and support. I have been doing it using the past CS. is that correct. And how good are the projected Span A and Span B resistances and Supports."

I get some excellent questions behind the scenes, and this is certainly one of them.
The thing I like about this question is that it points out 2 things about the ichimoku?: 1.The versatility of the ichimoku; 2. My personal most over-looked part of the ichimoku (Just pointing out one of my shortcomings.).

There is no "best way" of pointing our supports and resistances using ichi. My personal trading style has always been to seek out a most dominant S or R on that chart, as well as seek out the most dominant TF.

I often overlook (to my fault) the chinkou, but when it crosses over the candle, that becomes a very strong momentum and trend indicator. Linkon has an excellent thread on the ichimoku, and he often alludes to the chinkou.
In theory, this is why it is such a powerful indicator. I read once the exact average of a cycle is 29.1 periods, which coincidentally is the median age of the world. When you subtract consolidative moves before reversals, decision points, etc, you could safely say the cycle would be closer to 26, and that is the default setting for how far back the chinkou is plotted. In other words, chinkou crosses the candle, then ride out the trend the rest of the way for a low risk position.
I did go off on a tangent with some of my theorization, but having said that, I still think it is relevant to the particular usage of the chinkou. This additional aspect is also showing why the ichimoku perfectionists use the one-look (English for ichimoku) as a standalone, such as my mentor on the ichimoku.
 
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