Some of my forecasts

[rajesh.sadhanala]

There is a trendline break of AUDUSD at 1.03850 in H4 Chart and pulled back to trendline again at 1.04158.

It will act as the stop. Target should be top of the cloud of 4H which is changing (1.02331)

<IMG> http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/412/audusdg.gif/ </IMG>

Regards
Raj

Paul,
As the stop has been hit and trade has been closed. Can enlighted me more on this setup
Trendline breaks at 1.03850
Correction to 1.04158.
Entry planned but exit criteria never met.

Regards
Raj

 

[ashwani chadha]

Ashwani, it seems like many are developing an addiction to the 200 SMA of late, which is fine. I enjoy talking about it.

I'm favoring your level, which is the daily tenken, to be broken. This is because the stochs are so OB, that it should add a driving force to take the pair back to the kijun at 1.5654. Similar to the EUR/USD, the weekly is point north, so that should be a time to consider switching directions.
For at least the time being, I think breaking the SMA is wishful thinking. I see nothing confluential that would suggest that, at least for the time being.

dear paul,thanks for your view.i did not added stoch,but know after adding it i understand your point of view.to day is the fourth day when price is trying ,to make effort ,to break this level of strong resistance of 200 ema.if i should not take it like this,that again and again the thick support of cloud ,which is at the bottom of every eod bar ,is not permitting it and will not permit it,to go beyond a certain level on the down side,second thing which i feel that we are not supposed to add any thing else like stoch,in this world best system of trading.before the price take some turn on either side.i would like to have some further view.on the current situation of GBPUSD PAIR AND LET US ASSUME i still want to hold this pair on long side and not interested to square up instead of 200 sma hurdle ,and hurdle of stoch also on long side ,then with what stop loss eod basis,i should hold this pair
thanks in advance

 

[adityasaraf007]

Paul Sir....

We still have the problem.... Since the data which would be downloaded is 1min and MT4 would just show 1min charts..... It is not intelligent enough to use the same data for producing the charts of 5min, 1Hour, 4Hour, etc.....

Anyways.... we still have a workaround.... as TTG suggested to send the data on a regular basis to you.... This should work well... However, here is a catch too..... I am not sure but maybe all the Trendlines and Markings that you put up on the chart would get lost.....

Let's give it a shot... I have uploaded the data of Nifty over here... Please download this and follow the instructions as below....

1. Now, go to the History folder of GCI on your Hard Drive..... It should be located in "C:\Program Files\GCI MT4\history\GCI-Demo"...

2. Here, you would find *.hst files..... There should be files relating to NSE_Nifty.... Backup these files relating to NSE_Nifty in some other folder....

3. Extract the contents of the rar file which you have downloaded and put them in this folder...

4. Start MT4 and notice if all the Trendlines and Markings are still present or not....

5. If everything is fine.... you may delete the files which you had just backed up...

Let's see if this works or not....

Paul Sir, I guess you missed my reply earlier because of that catastrophic crash ....

Anyways... If everything is fine now, then please download the updated file from here and and let me know, if this can be a temporary workaround or not...

If everything goes well and you also want to perform the regular analysis of Indian Stocks... you may download it from here and follow the same procedure...

Regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

I had some issues with my live platform, since my other computer crashed. Those issues are resolved. I'm now getting caught up.

 

[4xpipcounter]

The trend's cycle

Someone asked me the following question: "Sir, what is Yearly Trend Cycle? Does it mean the top for the year is achieved?"

My response:
The distance from the 2's to the 1's and the 1's to the P's are all equidistant. In essence they measure the cycle of the trend within that timeframe. This is why when the reference points are hit why that at least, temporarily they contain price action, and it becomes a decision point for a bounce or a continuation. The length of that cycle is simply measured from the P to the 1, or the 1 to the 2.
In the case of the EUR/USD, I measured the dip, then from there added the distance between reference points to it, and came out with where the cycle would end.
The cycle's end is not necessarily an S or an R, but it is a measure of being aware that a reversal is around the corner. The peak was 1.3974 before we got the strong correction, then the UP continued. The correction was not strong enough, so it still forewarns that a stronger correction is around the corner.
Add to that the evidence of the extreme SD channel readings on the hourly, 4-hour, and daily, as well as the strong OB conditions, and then add to that the strong UP momentum on the weekly, this all adds up to a strong correction, and most likely to be contained somewhere around the daily kijun.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This and my following post will be in response to Raj's question in post # 1774.

First, I don't know what stop is being referred to as stops are personal, but I want to point something out on this pair.
With all the cloud obviations and other indications, it was assumed that the circa peak around 1.3973--1.4020 was going to be it, so the move did catch me by surprise. But, the TL was never broken, contrary to a post in this thread and a couple of e-mails I received. It is very important to be very precise in drawing the TL's as they are drawn from the wick of the dip to the wick of the swing low.
We got the perfect bounce off the TL which answers today's activity for this pair.

Next, the answer to the specific question.
Also, an update is coming.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

With regard to the cloud, this was one ugly head fake. With regard to the TL, it performed perfectly, with the exception of the stronger than expected move north.
Again, there was no TL break. A TL break could be predicted, and quite frankly, along with the EUR/USD, I thought it was going to be broken on this move. Nevertheless, the trade would have been executed based on the prediction. The way to trade the break is after it has broken the TL, and then corrected back to it. I mentioned a few times the plight of the USD/CAD. That is what it is going through now. I talked about how it was headed to the bottom of the monthly cloud, but that trip is being delayed. This is because it is going through a correction of a TL break back around .9580.

Paul,
As the stop has been hit and trade has been closed. Can enlighted me more on this setup
Trendline breaks at 1.03850
Correction to 1.04158.
Entry planned but exit criteria never met.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Ashwani, I'm glad to see you hung on to your cable long. It paid off big. As I already mentioned, even though specific TL breaks were not officialized, I did think the moves were the real deal, because of some strong ichimoku obviations.
The USD is getting ready to make up for some lost time. USD looks bullsih for next week.

dear paul,thanks for your view.i did not added stoch,but know after adding it i understand your point of view.to day is the fourth day when price is trying ,to make effort ,to break this level of strong resistance of 200 ema.if i should not take it like this,that again and again the thick support of cloud ,which is at the bottom of every eod bar ,is not permitting it and will not permit it,to go beyond a certain level on the down side,second thing which i feel that we are not supposed to add any thing else like stoch,in this world best system of trading.before the price take some turn on either side.i would like to have some further view.on the current situation of GBPUSD PAIR AND LET US ASSUME i still want to hold this pair on long side and not interested to square up instead of 200 sma hurdle ,and hurdle of stoch also on long side ,then with what stop loss eod basis,i should hold this pair
thanks in advance

 

[4xpipcounter]

Adityasara, I responded way back in this thread somewhere, but I'll bring my response up-to-date. I know this thread moves fast.
I am getting a server error, which was exactly what I got this time.
If that can be resolved, then I'll give it another shot.

Paul Sir, I guess you missed my reply earlier because of that catastrophic crash ....

Anyways... If everything is fine now, then please download the updated file from here and and let me know, if this can be a temporary workaround or not...

If everything goes well and you also want to perform the regular analysis of Indian Stocks... you may download it from here and follow the same procedure...

Regards

 

[forexworld]

Hi Mr paul your again late - lol, glad to see you! What is going on with the markets I got smoked on my short positions!