Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

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My analysis in right after yours was done before I read yours. You are right!

Posted is my chart. The TL should be the end of the line today. Look for it to be broken tomorrow.

eur/usd I hope it settles below the daily trend line to confirm the reversal

 

[hills_5000]

Thanks Paul. Good to hear that coming from you. Have still not gone live and am trading demo but the trend line system is just doing wonders. Maybe its also because I have charting facilities which suit my style ( MT4 actually does not).

But what I would want to hear for sure is the critique. That's more important as a beginner , nay , at any stage

So you just go right on Mister

Hills, excellent job on your analysis.
You've displayed exactly why we don't use just one TF to trade off of. You have provided a perfect landscape for upcoming price action.

There are some things I could critique, but I won't. Simply put, as a trader, if you trade the forecast, then you are going to make many pips. The firm grasp you have on this can be applied to any market.

Let me point out as a positive your usage of the 200MA. Again moving averages is simply another measure of equilibrium. The fresh hit on it made a very strong R.

It still makes me laugh how some want to use MA's as a crossover signal

Also, you can plot any MA on your chart, then check the history with it. There is a maximum amount of grids it will drift from on any TF. Once price has drifted that maximized amount, you now have an entry to reverse direction.

 

[NANDAMAD]

@ Sir Paul,
Pl enlighten whether crude has findished its mid term uptrend.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hills, just for the thought of critiquing, I could do that on most posts. The idea is being of benefit to us as traders, but not to pick something apart just for the sake of doing so.
Simply put, from the reversal point, if you are shorting to 1.5802, then trying to make a decision at that point to go back long. If you go long, then you are headed to 1.6059. You might take profits at that point, then wait for an entry to head to 1.6451.
This is what I mean, that as a trader, you provided a perfect landscape. Good money will be made just based on the scenario you provided.
In essence, you will never have to worry about me holding back telling you that you are wrong along a certain line if there were certain obviations overlooked in your analysis.
LOL, there are a few people in this forum that can vouch for that. But, it's all for the collective good.

Thanks Paul. Good to hear that coming from you. Have still not gone live and am trading demo but the trend line system is just doing wonders. Maybe its also because I have charting facilities which suit my style ( MT4 actually does not).

But what I would want to hear for sure is the critique. That's more important as a beginner , nay , at any stage

So you just go right on Mister

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nandamad, this week's reversal level needs to hold or we are headed to 100.48.
The data on my weekly chart is a mess, but I also remember this being the circa area for the bottom of the cloud. This was a strong move, so look for 84.65 to be a key decision point.

@ Sir Paul,
Pl enlighten whether crude has findished its mid term uptrend.

 

[hills_5000]

With your permission Paul.

On the daily we are at at trend line support which also confirms with the 200EMA at 90.44. If we break that we head to TS at 89.21 , but if we dont we head back up. On the daily the oscillator is down but is showing signs of reversal. On the 4H we have hidden divergence, so as of now we seem to be headed back up. The 4H will have to be monitored for a forewarning of whats happening.

Your opinion pls Paul.

Nandamad, this week's reversal level needs to hold or we are headed to 100.48.
The data on my weekly chart is a mess, but I also remember this being the circa area for the bottom of the cloud. This was a strong move, so look for 84.65 to be a key decision point.

 

[ashwani chadha]

Wow you confused me totally, I got a carpal tunnel after reading this - lol,((( as far as the gbp/usd I would say look for the 1.5840 to be hit!)))

dear paul, how are you,whether we should consider 1.5840 as a strong support,from where the price is expected to move back in its long direction again and this time ,it can break its strong resistance of 200 period ema
and if failed to hold at 1.5840,then it can go very fast on the down side and can break the second support of cloud(span a)
thanks in advance

 

[4xpipcounter]

I can't comment to any great detail on this market, because I still do not have my live account up. My broker is taking care of whatever technical problems there are. There is a data feed problem on my oil charts that is peculiar to many demo accounts.

I do remember the bottom of the cloud being around 92.60 and calling for a reversal from that circa area.

There is little doubt that the 89.21 area, being the tenken, will be broken. I think it is the 4-hour that is really telling the story of what is going to happen. There will be very strong S at circa 87.20. That should act as at least temporary containment.

With your permission Paul.

On the daily we are at at trend line support which also confirms with the 200EMA at 90.44. If we break that we head to TS at 89.21 , but if we dont we head back up. On the daily the oscillator is down but is showing signs of reversal. On the 4H we have hidden divergence, so as of now we seem to be headed back up. The 4H will have to be monitored for a forewarning of whats happening.

Your opinion pls Paul.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Ashwani, it seems like many are developing an addiction to the 200 SMA of late, which is fine. I enjoy talking about it.

I'm favoring your level, which is the daily tenken, to be broken. This is because the stochs are so OB, that it should add a driving force to take the pair back to the kijun at 1.5654. Similar to the EUR/USD, the weekly is point north, so that should be a time to consider switching directions.
For at least the time being, I think breaking the SMA is wishful thinking. I see nothing confluential that would suggest that, at least for the time being.

dear paul, how are you,whether we should consider 1.5840 as a strong support,from where the price is expected to move back in its long direction again and this time ,it can break its strong resistance of 200 period ema
and if failed to hold at 1.5840,then it can go very fast on the down side and can break the second support of cloud(span a)
thanks in advance

 

[4xpipcounter]

A basic TL question

Someone asked me this question in a PM. I'm keeping his name private, because there is always a reason someone would send a query privately:
"A very basic query. A trend line is drawn from the swing high ..and then you join the next lower swing high and draw it downwards. Now , if at any time there is a bar with a wick above the trend line , does one redraw it from the top of this new wick or the original still holds good. Whats the rule. And what works."

A TL is always drawn from the peak or the dip to the 1st swing high or low. If it is too steep, then wait for the next swing low or high and draw it to that one. Many times I like to draw preliminary TL's which goes from the 1st swing low or high to the 2nd. If it produces the necessary TL properties that I have discussed so often, then that also would be a legitimate TL.
If the break does not possess the properties, then always check to see if you drew it right, as we already have had discussions along those lines.

You are drawing the lines from wick to wick, but a legitimate TL break is not when the wick breaks, but the close of the candle has to break it.

As long as the TL is not broken, then it is still effective. Once broken, let it stand until the break and the corrective process has been completed. Whle the corrective process is going on, it's a good idea to draw the TL going the opposite direction.