Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Another insanely inept week for the USD/JPY. It had a high-low of 78.14--77.55, which is a total range of 59 pips for the pair.
No joke! I've gotten more than that in one hour in trades before off this pair.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly S&R's--121811

R3 r2 r1 s1 s2 s3
eur/usd 1.3472 1.3274 1.3155 1.2917 1.2798 1.2600
usd/jpy 78.39 78.12 77.96 77.64 77.48 77.21
gbp/usd 1.5799 1.5684 1.5614 1.5476 1.5406 1.5291
usd/chf 0.9681 0.9533 0.9445 0.9267 0.9179 0.9031
eur/chf 1.2396 1.2308 1.2256 1.2150 1.2098 1.2010
aud/usd 1.0325 1.0163 1.0066 0.9872 0.9775 0.9613
usd/cad 1.0633 1.0516 1.0446 1.0304 1.0234 1.0117
nzd/usd 0.7901 0.7768 0.7688 0.7528 0.7448 0.7315
eur/gbp 0.8567 0.8485 0.8436 0.8336 0.8287 0.8205
eur/jpy 104.36 103.05 102.25 100.67 99.87 98.56
gbp/jpy 122.46 121.77 121.36 120.54 120.13 119.44

 

[trade4joisar]

T4J, I had to cheat and look at my own charts. I learned through married life to have eyes for no other--lol.

The initial view of the chart would seem to indicate it is ready to begin its ascent. I think what is about to happen is that the market will put in a minor effort to begin the UP, but will meet with strong R at 170.93. Afterward the return to the DOWN should take the market to the MS3 at 161.31. Having said that, there is enough room for the fall to take the market to 159.08.
There is a strong possibility the MS3 may not be hit before the month is out, so next month's new levels would need to be reviewed.
LT, what is ideal is to see the ascent back to 170.93 be choppy the rest of the year. If that is the case, then it will prepare the market for a drop to next year's YS1, and then prepare it for a year long ascent. If the year ends around 170.00, then my guess is the YS1 would be between 159 and 161.

:lol:

Thanks.

Can you share your chart as well? with your analysis & where you can see it in next year?

 

[NANDAMAD]

Nanda, I gave a Nifty update at Nifty50 Trends.

My referece isto USD/INR. I mean, I can also use it profitably, though question was by Time pass.

regards.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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T4J, LOL, I had to dig for your post. I forgot what the market is.

There is a weak crossover on stochastics, and it is not quite OB. Under current conditions, there would be enough steam to make it to the TL, but definitely not to break it. There is still strong momentum on the weekly and monthly. A nice strong reversal after the daily TL is hit should take care of any momentum that is left, and we could have a trifecta working. That, of course remains to be seen. If that is the case, then 158 is the dip for the year.

BTW, my favorite work time of the year is coming up. That is the end of the year. This year it will be the end of the week/month/year, combined. I will have the usual weeklies and monthlies, but then for good measure, the yearlies are getting thrown in with it. I'm game to all requests. The last day of the year and New Year's Day, I party with the charts, music, football games (on the radio), and the Hot Stove Baseball League. This year New Year's is on Sunday, and it's church on Sunday, and then we have our New Year's party on Sunday evening, so the music, chart free for all at my house will extend into the 2nd.

:lol:

Thanks.

Can you share your chart as well? with your analysis & where you can see it in next year?

 

[hills_5000]

U asked for it.....

Nifty, N/U , A/CHF , U/CAD , USD/INR... Gold ...Crude...

image hosting

T4J, LOL, I had to dig for your post. I forgot what the market is.

There is a weak crossover on stochastics, and it is not quite OB. Under current conditions, there would be enough steam to make it to the TL, but definitely not to break it. There is still strong momentum on the weekly and monthly. A nice strong reversal after the daily TL is hit should take care of any momentum that is left, and we could have a trifecta working. That, of course remains to be seen. If that is the case, then 158 is the dip for the year.

BTW, my favorite work time of the year is coming up. That is the end of the year. This year it will be the end of the week/month/year, combined. I will have the usual weeklies and monthlies, but then for good measure, the yearlies are getting thrown in with it. I'm game to all requests. The last day of the year and New Year's Day, I party with the charts, music, football games (on the radio), and the Hot Stove Baseball League. This year New Year's is on Sunday, and it's church on Sunday, and then we have our New Year's party on Sunday evening, so the music, chart free for all at my house will extend into the 2nd.

 

[4xpipcounter]

All 28 of the major currency pairs are automatic. I'll make sure to include the rest, along with silver, DJIA, and DAX.

U asked for it.....

Nifty, N/U , A/CHF , U/CAD , USD/INR... Gold ...Crude...

 

[4xpipcounter]

In my Weekly Forecast keep your eye on the difference between the AUD/USD outlook and the others like the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/CHF. If the WF is right this week, then the Aussie is getting crushed.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly Forecast--121811

EUR/USD: As long as this pair stays above 1.3010 this week, there should not be an issue with this week marking the beginning of the new trend. If that level breaks, then there is still danger of a fall to the WS1 at 1.2917. Even the 4-hour chart looks tough. A fresh kijun currently at 1.3106 waits to impede progress, then the WR1 at 1.3155, then a fresh cloud which should be at circa 1.3189 by the time it gets there. If it makes it to the WR2 at 1.3274, then next week it should be easier going for the pair

USD/JPY: My data for this pair goes back to Feb 1992. Last weeks range of 59 pips marked the low for that entire period. Thats how inept things are getting for this pair. There are no real trading opportunities here. Even though the pair is caught in an updraft, 78.10 could be hit, but it looks like it could blow the hourly off the chart. zzzz

GBP/USD: The strong finish that ended last week should continue, but briefly. The WS1 at 1.5476 needs to contain any correction. As long as that is the case, then the WR2 at 1.5684 should be visited.

USD/CHF: MT, .8948 still looks like a reasonable target. The main level to look for his week is .9249. A strong break of that, and it could put .8948 on the radar. It will take a runaway freight train to break it on the first try, because my WS1 is .9267. If .9461 contains the upside, then it is still a matter of time when that will happen.

EUR/CHF: It is not too often than at the beginning of a reversal after a lethargic market the polar 3 is on the radar, but this is one of those weeks. The WS3 is 1.2009, and it should be hit this week. The key level to watch for on the way there is 1.2129. That is the 2 on a 1-2-3 on the weekly. It will also amount to extreme stochastic divergence next to a very bearish cloud.

AUD/USD: If the outlooks are correct thus far, then the Aussie crosses are about to get crushed this week. For that not to happen, then this has to be a volatile week for this pair. Ill just give the view the way I see it on the charts. The bottom of the daily cloud is 1.0070 and the WR1 is 1.0066. That are should contain any move north this week. There is still very strong momentum pointing south, and .9793 is key S. If that is broken, then we are safely in the DOWN and heading towards .9572 and even beyond that. Considering the WS2 is .9775, that scenario could prevail.

USD/CAD: Even though LT speculation says we are headed to 1.1085, this pair does not seem to have any interest or urgency in getting there. It still appears this pair is going to finish what it started at the end of last week and thats its move north. Look for WR1 at 1.0441 to contain, or even the MR2 at 1.0481. Key levels to the up and down are 1.0470 and 1.0058. Either one of those levels taken out convincingly, then we have a strong move, which means either we are back in the LT move north, or back in the consolidation at sub-parity.

NZD/USD: Unlike its cousin, the AUD/USD, this pair has much more room to breath on top. Any move south needs to be contained by the WS1 at .7528, or like many of the USD pairs, the outlook becomes a little confusing. As long as that is the case, then it appears the WR2 at .7768 is clearly on the radar.

EUR/GBP: There is now little doubt this pair is headed to .8167, and the quicker it gets there, the better. If it arrives quickly, then it provides the means for an explosive reversal. There is still plenty of room and move for a downward thrust to happen this week. It is expected the WS2 at .8287 will be hit. I would treat that as a decision point for what will possibly follow afterward.

EUR/JPY: This pair is still getting strong pressure to continue south from the monthly and weekly, but there appears there is going to be some restraint this week. The WS1 at 100.66 and MS2, 100.64 area probably contains, as the pair prepares for a move that should take it back to at least the MS1 at 102.48, and even the WR2 at 103.05.

GBP/JPY: This pair should finish off what it ended last week and that is the completion of its move north. There is very strong R in the WR1 area at 121.36. Unlike its cousin, the EUR/JPY, there is greater potential to the downside as the WS2 at 120.13 could be hit, and could go even lower than that.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Reaction with Crude

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This picture shows a little bit by what I mean when I say a decision point. The projection was for the market to make it to circa 102, which is the top of the weekly cloud. From that point, I could not confirm if the top was going to be broken or if we would get a strong bounce off it. One thing was certain. We would get a reaction, and it took 4 weeks to make up its mind. Decision points will usually net a strong move, but we would not know which way. It is the type of decision one could make with a short stop.