Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

I was not clear there, RJ.

The "trend reversal" I was talking about is what appears to be a LT UP that started prematurely. That will probably be confirmed if 5410 is broken this week.
So, the issue I have with my forecast is that the LT UP would have caught me by surprise, and we would not continue the dip to the 4100's

Oh Wow! all the way to 5554 from 5410 levels. No major hurdles in between?(that is if we touch 5410 levels comfortably as you mentioned)

Also you mentioned "If the so-called correction turns out being a complete trend reversal, then there are issues with the forecasts" I thought that was your original premise, that this would lead to a reversal which will take us to 4400 and 4000 levels (correct me if i am wrong) Thanks much.

 

[reachjesal]

oh OK got it Paul. Thanks!

As usual very helpful

I was not clear there, RJ.

The "trend reversal" I was talking about is what appears to be a LT UP that started prematurely. That will probably be confirmed if 5410 is broken this week.
So, the issue I have with my forecast is that the LT UP would have caught me by surprise, and we would not continue the dip to the 4100's

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly S&R's--020512

R3 r2 r1 s1 s2 s3
eur/usd 1.3359 1.3268 1.3213 1.3103 1.3048 1.2957
gbp/usd 1.6050 1.5946 1.5883 1.5757 1.5694 1.5590
usd/chf 0.9316 0.9254 0.9216 0.9142 0.9104 0.9042
eur/chf 1.2166 1.2122 1.2095 1.2041 1.2014 1.1970
aud/usd 1.1044 1.0920 1.0846 1.0696 1.0622 1.0498
usd/cad 1.0075 1.0010 0.9971 0.9893 0.9854 0.9789
nzd/usd 0.8579 0.8476 0.8414 0.8290 0.8228 0.8125
eur/gbp 0.8447 0.8387 0.8351 0.8279 0.8243 0.8183
eur/jpy 103.01 102.00 101.39 100.17 99.56 98.55
gbp/jpy 122.68 122.04 121.65 120.87 120.48 119.84

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly Forecast--020512

EUR/USD: This weeks level to watch for is not one of the weeklies, but the monthly, namely the MR1 at 1.3248. If it is so much as touched, that is the needed signal to say this pair is comfortable enough inside the cloud, and it will have its sights on the top at 1.3552. There also seems to be little corrective room heading south. It appears the WS1 at 1.3103 will be hit, but thats about as far as the market should get. Just in case the WS2 at 1.3048 is touched, then we are in for more consolidation.

GBP/USD: The WS1 at 1.5757 should contain or this pair is in for some consolidations. The favorable scenario is that is will, and then we head to the weekly kijun at 1.5924. That would also allow for a move to my WR2 at 1.5946. Even after the weekly kijun is hit, there is still room for a move farther north in the near future, but the 50% mark of the YR1>YR2 presents very strong R that should contain the correction and turn the pair back around heading south.

USD/CHF: Im still waiting for this pair to begin its next leg of the journey south, and break out of the consolidation it has been in the last 6 days. There are some indications we could see a rise to the WR2 at .9254. If that is the case, then the trip is postponed for another week, and we get an even stronger move towards .9354. The other scenario is simply the WS2 at .9104 being touched, and then that begins the strong acceleration to the bottom of the daily cloud at .9056, and most likely well beyond that point. Either way, it looks like a one-way ticket this week. Given how weak the USD looks over overall, Id have to favor the trip south for this pair.

AUD/USD: A move to begin the week to the WS1 at 1.0696 almost seems a lock. There is an outside chance the dip could continue to the MP / WS2 combo at 1.0621 / 1.0622. From there the rebound take the pair to at least the WR1 at 1.0846, and we could also see the WR2 hit at 1.0920.

USD/CAD: Any move north this week should be contained at the WR2 at 1.0010. This pair should now be in the middle of the MT move towards .9707. For this week, there is next to nothing stopping the fall to the WS2 at .9854.

NZD/USD: With the fresh break out of the weekly cloud and the break of chart R at .8241. This pair is headed much higher before thoughts of a reversal. The pair might need a ST break of the trip north, but cluster S in the .8228 area will more than amply contain. The WR1 at .8414 and maybe the WR2 at .8476 get hit this week. MT the pair is headed to the .8570s, with a possibility to challenge the all-time peak at .8870.

EUR/GBP: For the last 7 weeks, this pair has traveled east, and it is preparing for one more breakout south to the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167. Ideal containment to the north would be the 4-hour kijun / TL combo at .8330, then we head to the WS2 at .8243 and most likely, lower. If the .8330 level is broken then we are in for some more upper channel consolidation and face the possibility of a move to the WR2 at .8387.

EUR/JPY: This pair is still plodding along on its journey north, but the peak established 2 weeks ago may hold even after this week is over the bottom of a fresh cloud has not been touched yet, so the initial piercing might be tough. The bottom is 101.75, and the WR2 is 102.00, so its that are that should contain this week. To the south the WS1 at 100.17 will probably contain.

GBP/JPY: The last 2 times this pair entered the daily cloud it gave us a head fake. This time it was followed by a strong impulsive reversal. With the strong momentum, it appears the next time it enters it is going to stay all the way to the top at 123.12. Any correction could dip to the WS2 at 120.48, and there is a possibility this pair will not make it that far. After the pull back, then it should be on to the WR2 at 122.04.

 

[4xpipcounter]

My Nifty update is seen at Sudoku's thread at Nifty50 Trends.
About 11:00pm IST Sunday, IBB with the requests-- crude oil, DIJA, and anything else.

 

[Piratetrader]

I didn't notice the above post at first my mistake

 

[4xpipcounter]

LOL, I think I know what you were going to post.

I didn't notice the above post at first my mistake

 

[trade4joisar]

Re: Titan

Your comments on this.

Daily chart.

Weekly chart

 

[Piratetrader]

Re: Ichimoku IV--tenken and kijun

jpg image hosting

Later, we got the break back into the cloud, but the kijun is still in a straight line.
Later, we had the volatile break back under the straight line kijun and the cloud, but now the tenken is point north.
Then, we had the break back over the cloud and tenken, but the kijun was still level. About the time is pointed north, the candle broke south, and under the tenken, which is not good for the beginning of a trend.
Finally, we got the break under the cloud with the tenken and kijun in perfect sync, but there was still one problem. That is one long candle. The only thing that could have been done at that time was enter at the opening of the next candle and using the kijun as a stop as described before. That means entry would be 1.2990, current price is 1.2841, and the stop is 1.3001. By next candle, it will be 1.2993.

BTW, these examples are used strictly by what we see on the charts. That move could have been anticipated, but for the benefit of easy learning, I'm trying to stay away from intangibles.

By now, I'm dying to hear some comments or questions. Even disagreements are fine with me. Just bring the evidence when you do disagree.

Hello I have a question (without considering higher time frame).. The place where you have marked the oval. the cloud was thin and we had that kumo twist in the future on the h4 ! considering if it would have happened live as a normal trader the candle went east ward and broke the dieways cloud making the full flat Span A as the solid Support and at the same time the tenken pointed north while the kinjun leaving its flat form also did the same and pointed north! as a trader here we could have gone long with a Span -A being the ultimate support and a stop loss under it. we had long Analysis from the kumo twist the T/K with Span -A being the support.Here the chinkou 26 periods behind was above the past price action and that would be bullish ! but when the candle cleared out from the kumo shadow moving eastward the price action is above the Span-A and that would be bullish ! All the things is pointing North here in my case you wanna go long with a great risk to reward ratio and as a consequence that Ultimately if we went long we would have been stopped out how do you identify these fake outs? AND THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION -

As known There are 3 states of cloud past current and future . how do you use or how important is kumo shadows(past)/ or the past flat T/K and the past kumo Spans to enter a trade and to identify it as a support and resistance? how can you use them ? Which kumo has the strongest potential of reversal or acting as S and R the past,current or future kumo ?

also if you could tell me the idea of what does it indicate or how do we trade when price action is above the kinjun and below the tenken in a bullish trend and vice versa in a bearish one?

 

[Piratetrader]

Re: Ichimoku III--the tenken and kijun

image hosting jpg



I haven't gotten into any cloud properties yet, but how many times have I talked about the cloud acting as equilibrium? When the candles drift farther than usual away from the cloud it becomes fresh, and in this case will act as R. Once the candle found its way over the TK combo, the cloud is going to act as R. So, at this point, a long could have been executed, but the TP would have been at the bottom of the cloud. Price action found its way into the cloud, but this is a time you want to disregard the fact it is above the TK and consider the equilibrium factor. You can see price action got real volatile after the entry.

As far as future action is concerned, notice how the candles are beating up on the fresh cloud. Eventually the cloud becomes vulnerable and the candles are going to have its way and find its way in. For the time being the tenken and kijun have straight lined near the bottom of the cloud, so it is expected for it to be strong R. One of 2 things will happen, price will continue dipping while the tenken and kijun follow close behind. Why is following close behind significant? It will enable the candle to cross easily back over the combo. It would act as support. The next try at the cloud should thrust the price through it. Once the TK combo catches up, then it will act as additional support near the top of the cloud and bully it out.
The other possible scenario is to see a very strong and volatile move from the current area, and price bridges the tenken and kijun, which would also put it inside the cloud. It is the least likely of the scenario. Both have leveled, which strengthens the R at this point.

As far as where price could be headed in the future, we would be assured it would be headed much higher if we see a break on the other side of the cloud, and in knowing the tenken and kijun will add the additional support. I'll get into additional cloud properties later, but this chart is showing a clear shot at 1.3400. The daily is showing initial strong R will be seen at the kijun at 1.3280. If we get a close on the other side of it, then the fresh cloud currently at 1.3697 will act as strong R.

The beautiful thing about the ichimoku is that it adds such a predictable ebb and flow. We have already seen it, to a degree by combining the different TF's, and we'll see it further when we start to combine the other elements with it. This whole thing gives meaning to the old proverb, "He looks like he is just floating along on a fluffy cloud."

HI For here On the entry do we go short when the candle finally breaks the cloud and went south or is it necessary for the tenken and kinjun to break the Span B if yes then why? because if we wait for the tenken and more importantly kinjun combo to clear the kumo and span -B we will be half way down on our trend or miss a lot of pips and you don't want to enter at the half way where markets need correction ! your views on this

what happens when the tenken/kinjun is inside the cloud while the candle breaks through it ? And what would have been a good time to close the trade? also you mentioned that we are heading north here which shortly happened but you see in the right bottom hand side of the current price action on the chart the candles have broken below the cloud and the Tenken is below The Kinjun represents bearish momentum while both the T/K are flat measuring equiliblirium and acting as strong R . also the bearish cloud is thick indicating higher price volatility the thicker the cloud the bearish the trend the more power the price action requires to breakafter a few hours the price moves out of the kumo eastward representing current bearishness so this is the place a trader would want to go short with the Span -B tenken and finally the ultimate kinjun( if you notice we had a t/k combo resistance) there for Resistance with a great risk to reward ratio. as a trader if some one went short with all the above idea it would have moved 270 pips south before comming back again above to the break even point(where you entered the short) Where do you wanna close the trade on this 270 pips south move on the h4?would you apply the 3 candle before kinjun on the h4 or the h1? or would you have kept the short running ?