Ichimoku-- The complete series
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The ichimoku cloud (Properly called Ichimoku Kinko Hyo) is unique inasmuch that it is 5 indicators in one. The indicators are unique unto themselves, and they possess a property unique unto themselves. IMO, when these 5 indicator form a confluence it is the most powerful confluence you can find
As we progress, we'll see that 5-in-1 confluence does not happen often, but there is always enough evidence the ichimoku will give for nice trade setups.
I will eventually break down each aspect or indicator within ichimoku and even cover the formulas with how they are derived. Many demonstrations will be in the rearview mirror, as I will only be showing how the indicator works, but I will try and capture a live trading opportunity as it presents itself.
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Ichimoku II-- the tenken and kijun
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The settings I use on the ichimoku is always the default at 9,26,52, so when I refer to formulas, my settings will be your reference point.
Tenken formula: High + Low of last 9 candles / 2
Kijun formula: High + Low of last 26 candles / 2
The above formula shows why the tenken is the faster of the 2 indicators.
There is much that could be said about the tenken and kijun, so I'll probably stay on it for awhile. As always, I will show its actual properties and share some personal insights.
Notice the uptrend to the west of the chart and the downtrend to the east of the chart. It is showing a very strong uptrend and a very strong downtrend. I'm not into cliches as it is obvious one look at the charts with no indicators tells us which way the trend is headed.
The thing to notice is that once the candle cleared the tenken and kijun, it never hit the kijun. This is showing a very strong trend, as in most trends, the kijun will contain. A little later we will cover what happens when price ranges on the other side of the tenken but still stays on this side of the kijun.
At this point, let me also add how to set stops in a trend. Look at the kijun, count back 3 candles, and that is your stop. This way there is a defined way of trailing the stop as each candle evolves. Oh yeah, I should also mention it works! Therefore, current stop by using this daily chart would be 1.3239. (BTW, that is only one way of ascertaining a stop. It works, but there is nothing concrete that says it has to be done that way.
So far, this might be boring for many. But, like I said, I'll be on the tenken and kijun for awhile, so I'm sure it will get more interesting as we progress.
Also, I'm open to all other conversations. Don't anyone feel you are interrupting the flow by asking or commenting about whatever market, indicator, or other type of TA's you want to talk about. Nice thing about a forum is I can carry on 5 conversations at one time and not feel like the white jackets will be coming to get me.
Ichimoku III--the tenken and kijun
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The most significant event on this chart shows why many traders use the ichimoku as a standalone.
Look to the west in the oval area. When the trend is fresh (This case--DOWN.) and the tenken and kijun have just dropped under the cloud, don't even think about going long. People talk about divergences. When you get the wick hitting the top of the cloud, and the TK combo just broke under it, "Hello!!!"
That is all you need to know to go short. The candle was still contained under the TK combo, which is further confirmation. Finally the TK was dipping, and the trend was fully ignited.
I haven't gotten into any cloud properties yet, but how many times have I talked about the cloud acting as equilibrium? When the candles drift farther than usual away from the cloud it becomes fresh, and in this case will act as R. Once the candle found its way over the TK combo, the cloud is going to act as R. So, at this point, a long could have been executed, but the TP would have been at the bottom of the cloud. Price action found its way into the cloud, but this is a time you want to disregard the fact it is above the TK and consider the equilibrium factor. You can see price action got real volatile after the entry.
As far as future action is concerned, notice how the candles are beating up on the fresh cloud. Eventually the cloud becomes vulnerable and the candles are going to have its way and find its way in. For the time being the tenken and kijun have straight lined near the bottom of the cloud, so it is expected for it to be strong R. One of 2 things will happen, price will continue dipping while the tenken and kijun follow close behind. Why is following close behind significant? It will enable the candle to cross easily back over the combo. It would act as support. The next try at the cloud should thrust the price through it. Once the TK combo catches up, then it will act as additional support near the top of the cloud and bully it out.
The other possible scenario is to see a very strong and volatile move from the current area, and price bridges the tenken and kijun, which would also put it inside the cloud. It is the least likely of the scenario. Both have leveled, which strengthens the R at this point.
As far as where price could be headed in the future, we would be assured it would be headed much higher if we see a break on the other side of the cloud, and in knowing the tenken and kijun will add the additional support. I'll get into additional cloud properties later, but this chart is showing a clear shot at 1.3400. The daily is showing initial strong R will be seen at the kijun at 1.3280. If we get a close on the other side of it, then the fresh cloud currently at 1.3697 will act as strong R.
The beautiful thing about the ichimoku is that it adds such a predictable ebb and flow. We have already seen it, to a degree by combining the different TF's, and we'll see it further when we start to combine the other elements with it. This whole thing gives meaning to the old proverb, "He looks like he is just floating along on a fluffy cloud."
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Ichimoku IV--tenken and kijun
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Here's another pair we have talked a lot about.
This shows how the tenken and kijun react to sideways markets. Within the strict context of the ichimoku, it says stay away until things clear up.
As we look to the west, we see the tenken and kijun bridged. From there it makes for a nice ST long opportunity to the bottom of the cloud. Remember the cloud is fresh. Price action was buried under it. After the cloud was hit, there was nothing but chaos as far as a tradable opportunity.
The bounce off the cloud was predictable, but not really tradable. The tenken was pointing north and the kijun leveled. That alone suggests eastward movement ahead. The tenken wants to go north, the fresh cloud is in the way, and the kijun has leveled which suggests strong support. It eventually headed south, but it could not have been predicted the solid kijun was going to be broken. Even after the tenken crossover the kijun under the cloud, it still did not look good, because the kijun was still leveled. It suggested volatility and the kijun acting as a magnate.
Later, we got the break back into the cloud, but the kijun is still in a straight line.
Later, we had the volatile break back under the straight line kijun and the cloud, but now the tenken is point north.
Then, we had the break back over the cloud and tenken, but the kijun was still level. About the time is pointed north, the candle broke south, and under the tenken, which is not good for the beginning of a trend.
Finally, we got the break under the cloud with the tenken and kijun in perfect sync, but there was still one problem. That is one long candle. The only thing that could have been done at that time was enter at the opening of the next candle and using the kijun as a stop as described before. That means entry would be 1.2990, current price is 1.2841, and the stop is 1.3001. By next candle, it will be 1.2993.
BTW, these examples are used strictly by what we see on the charts. That move could have been anticipated, but for the benefit of easy learning, I'm trying to stay away from intangibles.
By now, I'm dying to hear some comments or questions. Even disagreements are fine with me. Just bring the evidence when you do disagree.
Ichimoku V--tenken and kijun
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I was getting ready to leave for the day (almost 1:30pm here) when this chart hit me in the face, and it is another pair we have focused a lot on.
This is also going to be more live. I will always post a sequence of charts on this, so if the rest are belated, then you know me taking off caused the gap.
The kijun has gone sideways in the cloud. The tenken is diverged in a big way from the kijun, which is another form of measuring equilibrium. Even though I have not made it to the components of the cloud, look how far from the cloud the candle has wondered. This scenario is suggesting a big collapse, ichimoku style.
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Ichimoku VI--tenken and kijun
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Go back to post# 2807 for the last post I did in this series.
This is really a continuation of the trade I entered, and of course we are talking solely on the ichimoku and how it produced the trade.
This is the weekly. On the 4-hour we see how the candle was flying high above the cloud with the kijun cutting through the cloud and strong divergent from the tenken. That is really a confluence of equilibrium on one TF.
There is now a point that is important to know about using the tenken and kijun as supports and resistances. The tenken is going to provide support at .9210. Follow this market and watch the tenken come alive, as the candle will have a bout trying to dodge the tenken.
Additionally, it is very possible to see a drop to the kijun. That would more than likely contain if price made it that far. We do have some strong ichimoku indications of an impending strong drop from current level. The kijun being 1200 pips from current level is one of them. It is also level with an extremely bearish cloud. That is also giving an indication for a strong drop. It also would provide rock solid support if price made it that low.
This is where it pays to know what the future reading will be for the ichimoku properties, as it helps in gauging future price activity. The kijun, unless the top is broken, will move in a straight line for the next 6 consecutive weeks. 6 weeks from now it will have an exceptionally strong move north from the current level at .8343 to .8800. That casts some doubt on whether or not the pair will drop to as low as the .8300's.
The formula for the tenken and kijun was noted in the 1st post of the sub-series of the tenken and kijun. I posted the formula because it is important to understand its properties and future functionality.
Ichimoku VII-- the tenken and kijun
I commented on this chart before, as it was the 2nd insertion within the series.
The next point is along the same lines as what we talked about in the 5th insertion.
The candle crosses the tenken and kijun. Next it makes it through the cloud (Referring to the uptrend.). Afterward, it breaks through the other side. At a glance you might think it was suppose to go higher. This is where the tenken, kijun, and the cloud all need to agree. It cautions of a quick reversal when the kijun is still camped under the cloud when the candle is above it.
I hope in looking at this in the rear view mirror adds a perspective to the live call on the AUD/CHF.
Ichimoku VIII--tenken and kijun
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Here's a situation where the tenken and kijun are following more closely to the candles on the cloud break. About 3 candles later the tenken and kijun found their way on top of the cloud which presents some very strong support. On the way back down the cloud acted as solid support. What will probably happen over coming days is that the tenken and kijun will come together and the tenken forced on top of the kijun, and then it will push the candles up higher.
Gold--Ichimoku IX--tenken and kijun
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I know you expect live action and less of the rear view mirror when you drop in at "Some of my forecasts", so I have combined my Gold forecast with the 9th insertion on the series.
This is a forecast, so I am combining my entire methodology in the post:
Let's first review what has been covered up to this point. Price action dropped to oblivion with respect to the cloud (We will eventually start covering it.). Price pushed up and over the tenken and kijun. The cloud is fresh, so it acted as R. Now price action is undecided which way it wants to go. One thing is for sure, and that is the R is wearing out because many candles have snuck into the cloud or clipped the bottom.
What most likely will happen is it will make a move to the WS1 at 1554. That will probably contain, as the daily and weekly seem to verify that, and then it should be northbound the rest of the week. Before the week is out, the 4-hour cloud should be hit to the top, and maybe eclipsed, as we see the move to the WR2 at 1682. That is a cluster event, so it will contain for the week.
Silver--Ichimoku X
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This market is looking similar to gold.
It ranged far below the cloud on the 4-hour. It came back up and hit a fresh cloud.
That is where the similarity stops.
The tenken and kijun have virtually formed a straight line under the cloud, and then tenken is under the kijun, and the candle is under all that. Unless there will be a doubtful volatile explosion going north, this is the recipe for the prior downtrend to continue, and this leg should head lower than the previous. As you can see on the chart, the WS1 is 28.51. The pair is stuck is a strong DOWN channel on even the higher TF's, so it is almost a lock to hit the WS2 at 27.57.
Ichimoku XI--kumo
The kumo, (I always call it the cloud) is the truest measure of the markets equilibrium. When the price ranges too far from it, it will gravitate back to it. Once inside the cloud, it will usually hit the other side. The top of the cloud and the bottom of the cloud are usually strong supports and resistances. The perimeters of the clouds are lined by a senkou span A and a senkou span B. When Span A is the top of the cloud, it is a bullish cloud. When Span A is the bottom it is a bearish cloud.
Let's look at the formula of Span A and Span B in order to get an idea of how the dynamics of the cloud works, and then later we will cover the effectiveness of it:
A: The mid-point of the 52-week high and low plotted 26 periods ahead.
B. The average of the tenken and kijun plotted 26 periods ahead.
Thus, A is the midpoint of the 52-week high and low plotted the same time the B is as the average of the tenken and kijun, and then it forms the cloud.
Hopefully, we are already understanding why:
1. The cloud is a measure of equilibrium.
2. The candle will gravitate back to it if it ranges too far from it.
3. The support and resistance is fresh, when it is hit originally.
4. It is important to know the average flow of the cloud.
5. It acts as a substantial support or resistance as it appears in the future ot the past.
6. The candle enters one end and hits the other end.
If you know the answer to all 6, then this series on the cloud will put you to sleep, but you still may want to stay awake, because you still my learn a new twist or turn in its usage.
If you know the answer to 4 or 5, then there is still more to learn about the cloud.
If it is less than 4, then you are going to really enjoy this segment of the ichimoku series.
I trust up to this point we have already seen examples of what I am talking about. We just want enough to wet our appetites up to this point. AS we progress through this part of the series, I'll have to look in the rear view mirror again in order to give the examples, but there will always be live examples along the way.
And as always, I encourage everyone's input, whether they be questions, comments, or even disagreements.
Ichimoku XII--kumo
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You might say that for the next several insertions on the ichimoku, we are going to keep our heads in the clouds--lol.
It should be noted that in using the examples, for the most part, I will use the rule for the demonstration. It is never my nature to shy away from the exception. Many times I am also posting markets that are of specific interest to me. Feel free to bring your favorite market to the table. If there is an exception you felt you spotted and you want to talk about it, then post it.
I'm posting the charts for demo and learning purposes, but more interested in a dialogue and knowing what others think.
The top chart is the hourly of the EUR/NZD, and the bottom is its 4-hour. Often I refer to using multiple TF's to get the total view and also using them as a means of confirmation of a position or to repudiate an original intent. This shows how the cloud measures a market's equilibrium, and how price always gravitates back to it.
The hourly is showing how price dipped way under the cloud. Price had to pull back to it. Also, notice how the candle snuck into the cloud. Write it off! That was a head fake. It has to be! It is a fresh cloud, so on the initial hit it will contain price action. Price continued to scoot along the edge of it, and then finally broke through. Notice how after it broke through and how the top is rejecting the candle (I'll get more into that later.).
Moving to the 4-hour. It suggests one obvious thing. Price is going to break above the hourly cloud. Why? Because the 4-hour cloud has not been hit yet. It wondered too far away from the 4-hour and there has to be a gravitational pull back to it. We can conclude that there should be a strong move to the bottom of the cloud, because price action will get a thrust from the hourly.
On the original hit of the cloud, however, expect price to be rejected.
Now, it's live action time and time to combine what we have learned to this point. We know the formula for the tenken and kijun. A cursory glance at the hourly tells us that by the beginning of London on Wednesday, the kijun will be in full agreement with the tenken at the cloud break, as the kijun will be pointing northward. Being level, for now, near the bottom of tells us that is strong support. The combination of that ichi knowledge tells us Wednesday is in for a bull day.
Ichimoku XIII--kumo
Considering I don't like blind faith, but only substantiative proof, I'll share why the candle always gravitates back to the cloud once it drifts too far away.
The answer will be found in its formula. The Senkou span A will always be found at the bottom of the cloud in a sharp downtend. Once the candle has reached a lower extreme, look to the future and you will see the A at the bottom.
The A is on top in a sharp UP.
Next we consider the completed cycle of a trend. This will vary from market-to-market, but generally accepted principles teach us that a cycle is from 26-32 candles.
The A side is the mid-point of 52 candles plotted 26 candles ahead. By taking the mid point of the last 52, you have taken the mid-point of 2 cycles. That is very accurate measuring. Then, you plot it 26 units ahead. You are giving it a full cycle to hit the cloud.
The average of the low and high, but its definition is a mean. You could call it the gathering point of all activity within the last 52 candles. Even though we are headed to the future, let's be real! How far from the mean could we really expect price to get? Would there not be a propensity to gravitate back towards it.
Here's a way to be able to test it just to have fun with it. Take everyone that has posted in this thread. Do an average of all their total posts in the entire TJ forum. Next, take the first 6 people you find that never posted in this thread. See if 3 of the 6 total posts are not less than the average and 3 are more. Find one that has at least double the average and see if the next one you check is not less than that one. Let's say one you check has 1/2 the posts of the average, then see if the next one you check is not more than the previous one.
Getting back to trading, because it is more important. That is why when price drifts too far away from the cloud why it will always pull back to the cloud.
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Ichimoku XIV--kumo
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Seeing the good people here at "Some of my forecasts" are used to live forecasting--lol, I better keep up the reputation.
This is a chart of the daily of the CAD/JPY. The pair has officially made it on top of the daily cloud. We will combine much of what we have learned up to this point. The tenken and kijun are heading east below the cloud. This means there are going to be limitations on just how high it is going to go. While it waits for the tenken and kijun to catch up, the level top of the cloud at 75.89 should be containment as it heads higher R is expected at the recent leveling of the cloud in the past at 77.41.
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ichimoku XV
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I plan on getting back to the kumo but I wanted to pause for the cause.
This picture is showing how to enter the middle of a DOWN and use the kijun as a stop, and this will work on all TF's.
I've been tracking this pair for quite awhile. Admittedly, it fooled me concerning the reversal point, but I'm still waiting for the bottoming out to enter for the "huge payday". For now all I can see is a downward channel with strong momentum favoring the bears. So, I have been in numerous shorts along the way. The recent one was entered on Monday (my time) at 6:29 in the evening. The stop was set at the kijun, 3 candles back. This is the hourly, so everytime I am at the computer I trail the stop in accordance with the reading on the kijun 3 candles back (In a downtrend I have to add for the spread.). The target is the MS1, as there seems to be a clear shot to that point. That is my TP. Using just the kijun, the trader could stay in the trade until the stop is triggered, because it is guaranteed to be profit from this point until whenever the stop is actually triggered.
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Ichimoku XVI--kumo
I've been talking a lot about the lack of movement in the USD/JPY and how it is lacked any weekly range. The monthly chart explains, in part, what that is so. I've talked many times how the pair is headed to the low 70.00's. Also, the last time the kijun was so much as touched was in Aug. '08, and that was the only time since the candles fell out of the bottom of the cloud. That does not figure to change soon. So, what is the problem?
We still have a strong proclivity for the bears to have their way, but look where price action is relative to the current cloud bottom. Move up to the future and notice the candle is camped under the cloud, even with its future perspective.
This is why I talk about many times how a market needs to move further against the overall trend, then it has the horsepower that is needed and the predictability for a strong move
This also has something to do with my views on Nifty at Nifty50 Trends.
In other words, we don't just use the current plight of the cloud to determine price action, but we use all its properties. This is what makes it so unique. It has future characteristics to it no other indicator has.
Wait until we get to the chinkou. We will have the present plotted in the past with the ability to tell the future.
Ichimoku XVII
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Here's some live action, along with the point I want to make concerning this insertion of the ichimoku. This is the EUR/USD presented on the hourly and 4-hour.
The optimal entry for a short is when price action drops under the cloud for a short and over the cloud for a long. It is even better yet when the tenken and kijun have both followed suit. It's quite obvious this pair is in a downtrend, and the daily will also confirm that fact. Whether you are a daytrader or a positional trader, you want to be able to take advantage of the trend. The whole idea is being able to find a place to jump in, and then to find a point to place the stop once in. Notice on the weekly how the price went east once it made it over the cloud. The hourly shows there were possibilities of the trend reversing, but price action was still contained under the kijun. Bringing this up-to-date, it would suggest the pair is headed lower because once it approached the 4-hour kijun it reversed rather soundly. The cloud on the hourly is rather thin right now, so it makes travel back and forth through the cloud rather easy, and so a good entry would be the hourly tenken. The daytrader would want to use the kijun as the stop, and so count back 3 candles, and the reading is 1.2779, then you would add on the spread. The next thing you would do is everytime you are near the computer lower the stop by counting 3 candles back on the kijun. The volume will slow down around 10:30pm IST, and so at that point, lower the stop by counting 3 candles back on the 15-min. You won't be in the trade too long when the stop is already under the entry point, so you are guaranteed a small profit under the worse conditions.
The other thing you can do is study your supports and resistances in lieu of what you see with price action. If you see a strong support, then you may want that as your target. If it is a very strong movement for the day, and we get at least 2 of those days per week, then remove the TP and just let the trade run and of course, keep trailing the stop.
I hope now we are understanding why I discourage set amount of pips on a stop.
Also, if someone is more curious about this or any other insertion in lieu of a market of your choice, then tell me, and we'll discuss it.
If you don't trade intraday and are looking for longer term ,then I can also discuss that. I won't give any names because of due respect, but I've been getting some e-mails how no one can make money daytrading. The last 3 weeks that is all I have done and have 2 losing trades. I also want to put the proof where my mouth is. Maybe a fault of mine, but I tend to have a big mouth, and so I have a lot of proving.
I guess I'm trying to get some more participation. The walls of "Some of my forecasts" are sounding hollow these days.
BTW, I'm not really complaining. I'm always curious as to know how others are thinking or what they want.
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Ichimoku XVIII
The pair had reached its peak for the day, and you knew there was going to be a correction during the slower time of the day. The hourly shows this freight train has just left the station. A fresh cloud gotten taken out like it was not there. This is the 18th insertion for the ichimoku lesson, so we will not regard S&R's, TL's, or anything else. We want to evaluate the ichimoku for a trigger to go long. Let's first consider what the ichimoku is telling us:
1. The candles have broken comfortably above the cloud.
2. The tenken is following hot on its trail, so it suggests the top of the cloud is containment.
3. If the top does not, then the kijun will.
4. This is a slow time of the day, so no forceful breakouts are expected.
5. We know once we get to London, then price action will pick up.
6. Thursday's top would then be broken.
7. The bottom of a fresh 4-hour cloud is 1.2507, and it should contain Friday's price action.
What we have effectively done is show how to use the ichimoku and be cognizant of the time of day. This is the time of day that is ideal to open a position, as in a strong trend there is little pullback this time of the day. Once we have determined which way the price will go (It's only 50-50, so always use the charts to cheat with to gain the edge.), we just find a place to enter, set our stop and TP and go play while we make money.
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ichimoku XIX--chinkou
The previous discussions we have had on the kumo, just kind of tie all that together. There were different points of the discussion that was going to be featured in the series, but instead, I'm going to push ahead to the chinkou. My goal is to still finish the series by this week, and post the URL for all insertions. If any previous posts that are not labeled as you see in this title are of importance to you, then copy and paste them somewhere, because they will not be in the series when I post it all. Let's move on to the chinkou:
It is important to know how and why the chinkou is plotted the way it is and how it plays such an important part of the ichimoku. I will readily admit that if I ever have an underrated portion of any part of my methodology, it is the chinkou. After all, go through this whole thread and find how many times I even mention it. I guess I'm telling on myself.
The chinkou is also the simplest part of the ichimoku, and arguably, the most effective. Look at the close on current price, plot it back 26 candles (That's if you have the default settings of 9,26,52.), and that is it. Why is 26 candles so important? (Reread if necessary. This is important stuff.) A complete cycle is viewed as a length of 26-32 candles, depended on the market we are evaluating. When the chinkou crosses the candle, that is probably the beginning of a hot trend. If it just crossed, and the cycle is 26-32 candles, then at the least, it caught what should be close to the beginning.
There are no charts on this insertion. That is all we need to know, for now. It is important to let this digest, then we can move on.
Important note: There are respected traders in this forum who use different settings, and it works. How many times do I say it? If it works, there are no arguments. I think Linkon is one who shares the ichimoku under different settings. Here's the advantage you get here. Go to his thread and get his perspective on it. Come to this thread and get mine. Then, you can do one of 3 things: Use his, use mine, or make up your own.
Ichimoku XX-chinkou
The chikou is used more as an alert more than a confluence, but when it confluentially matches other indicators, it then becomes one of the best confluences in the business. There is nothing better than live price action to demonstrate this, along with conveying my intentions of what I see with the chart.
First, let's break it down to the complete state of the ichimoku and the usage of the different TF's to show why this TFis being posted, and why it has much to do with what you should be along order within the next 24 hours.
The hourly is already long gone, it broke lose of the top of the cloud, the chinkou is flying high above the candles, and there is plenty of room for a correction. The daily has done nothing more than pop its head above the tenken and has a clear shot at the kijun at 1.2910. We are also aware that ichimoku rules state that after price action has been in a certain state of affairs, then it is time for a return to equilibrium. That could suggest the hourly is not only correction but could be in for a complete trend reversal. Even though the daily suggests we are headed to 1.2910, we must look for additional confirmation. Thus, we bring on a fresh and dominant 4-hour chart:
The white horizontal line is what I drew. It shows the point the chinkou broke on the other side of the candle. That shows that happened at the same point of the candle entering the cloud while crossing both the tenken and kijun. The trend is fresh, so the tenken at 1.2770 is going to be solid support, while the kijun acts as a solid SL for the entry. I'm preparing to enter the long before th e1.2770 is hit.
The next thing to consider is the chinkou will probably have to stay above the candles for awhile, so the recent peak at 1.2877 will have to be broken, which also means we get a cloud break. The tenken and kijun should be catching up after the correction, and so it should mean a fresh ichimoku UP with the support of the top of the cloud and the tenken and kijun, which would then put the 1.2910 on the radar, and most likely, much higher.
This all shows how important the chinkou is and the usage of the different TF's.
I'm nearing the end of the series on the ichimoku. I'd love to hear comments, questions, and even disagreements. This could fuel maybe a few more ichi insertions before I close off the series. There is so much I could say, but much is done on inspiration.
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