Some of my forecasts
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Eur/usd
The dip was complete at my WS3 at 1.4083, and a correction is needed for the drop. R's along the way for the correction will be the 4-hour kijun at 1.4253, and then there is cluster R at 1.4333. If needed, 1.4385 should be containment for this leg of the correction. This pair has its eye on the monthly tenken which is a cluster S at 1.3906. There is also the kijun at 1.3833, which is another cluster event.
The dip was complete at my WS3 at 1.4083, and a correction is needed for the drop. R's along the way for the correction will be the 4-hour kijun at 1.4253, and then there is cluster R at 1.4333. If needed, 1.4385 should be containment for this leg of the correction. This pair has its eye on the monthly tenken which is a cluster S at 1.3906. There is also the kijun at 1.3833, which is another cluster event.
Weekly Review--073111
There will be no Weekly Forecast, so there may be a few pairs that might have additional comments with regards to an analysis
EUR/USD: One thing looks certain, and that is the WR2 at 1.4564 will be containment to the north this week. Watch for reaction if we get to the WS2 at 1.4225.
As an additional note, this pair over the MT should be headed to 1.4710, but should be going sideways at least this week.
Containment to the upside was just a little under the WR1 (1.4479), as the peak was 1.4452. That left enough room under the upper cap for the pair to hit the WS3 (1.4083), as the dip was 1.4054, then bounced hard from there.
Note: I dont want it to be mistaken my recent views on the drop to the monthly tenken or kijun. Once it is complete, it is back in the larger uptrend.
USD/JPY: This pair should be headed to the WS1 at 76.22 to start the week. Im still waiting for the correction back to 80.41, so the WS1 could be the containment level that sends this pair on its journey. The bottom of the daily cloud at 80.73 should be containment before we reverse and head lower. As long as the WS1 holds up, then we can expect the WR2 to be hit this week at 77.84, and maybe a little beyond.
The dip was 76.27, missing the WS1 by 5 pips. The reversal peaked at 80.22. BTW, it may have been implied about the 80.41 mark, but I did not mean it was supposed to be hit this week, even though it came close.
GBP/USD: A convincing break of 1.6520 will signal a move to the top of the monthly cloud at 1.7333, where there will be strong R. and could be containment for a long time. As far as this week is concerned, the initial hit at 1.6520 should contain the upside, if it makes it there this week. The WR2 is 1.6538, so it is feasible. Downside containment needs to be the top of the daily cloud at 1.6328, and allowing for a spike to the WS2 at 1.6306. Keep this in mind for this pair for this week: When either 2 is hit, that is containment.
The peak was 1.6473, missing the WR1 by 7 pips, so there was plenty of room for the move south. The dip was contained by the MS1 (1.6232) as it was 1.6222, and just missing the WS3 by 13 pips.
USD/CHF: This pair is scaring me. Im looking for containment to the downside this week at the WS1 at .7770. Once the corrective process on this leg is finished, there should be a move to the bottom of the monthly SD channel at .7530, and we could see this pair go lower yet.
This pair has been tough lately. The MT projection at .7530 came close to being hit as the dip was .7577.
EUR/CHF: The WR2 at 1.1534 appears to be a very strong R. Like the USD/CHF, this fall is still in process, so it appears the circa area of this weeks WR2 would make for an excellent entry for a MT short. The next MT decision point should be around 1.0950.
Only the WR1 (1.1420) was hit as the peak was 1.1448. The MT projection was wiped out as the dip was 1.0706. The consolation is that as of this writing the price was 1.0950, so a strong move back forced the price to this area.
Note: The favorable scenario is this pair is still headed much lower.
AUD/USD: I was stating last week this pair would have a strong breakout to the upside, and new highs would be realized, and it did happen last week. We can expect newer all-time highs to be made as there is still strong momentum on the weekly chart in the middle of a strong upward channel. This week expect downside containment to be seen at the WS2 at 1.0835, which coincides nicely with the daily tenken.
The MT containment is the daily kijun at 1.0733.
The dip ended up being an unreal 1.0373, as the MT projection from way back was finally hit at the weekly kijun.
Note: Expect the peak at 1.1078 to now contain for at least awhile, but there should be a correction back to 1.0735.
USD/CAD: The 1st level for the week to look for on the upside is .9615. If we get a convincing break of that mark, then this pair could be consolidating. The bottom of the daily cloud at .9670 will be strong R. Regardless of what happens, the top of the daily will contain at .9768. We could see a down move to start the week to the 4-hour kijun at .9496.
We could see a move to my YS2 at .9142 before this year is out.
What a huge run up we had on Thursday! That being said, .9768 did contain, as the peak was .9740.
NZD/USD: Similar to the CHF/JPY, I cant tell you the exact day or week it is going to happen, but this pair is in for a huge reversal. Watch for reaction at my WR1 and WR2 at .8838 and .8889, respectively.
Wow! I hope you were paying attention to this one. The peak was .8838, as the WR1 was hit exactly, and then we got the huge reversal to the dip at .8270.
Note: This is the kind of reversal to expect from the CHF/JPY when it finally happens.
EUR/GBP: Watch for the 1s to be decision points this week, the WR1 at .8803 and the WS1 at .8721. If the DOWN is on, and price hits the WR1, then look for a sharp reversal. If price starts getting comfortable under the WS1, then look for us to go much lower. On the upside, if we only have a small correction from the WR1, then look for the move north to continue. What seems favorable is the move south. As long as this is the case, then I would look for the top of the weekly cloud to contain at .8605.
We started with the move north as the WR1 was hit exactly at .8803. We then got the sharp reversal, and then got a strong move east on top of the WS1 at .8721 (Draw the line on your charts and you will see what I mean.). Then we got the plunge to the dip at .8641.
EUR/JPY: A correction is due of the recent break of the daily TL to at least 112.52, and even possibly the daily kijun at 113.65. Considering the move is against the MT downtrend, this move could take more than just this week to complete, because the WR2 is 112.22. Look for the WS1 to contain any move on the downside at 109.62.
This pair moved in reverse of what I thought it would do. It did keep moving lower as the WS2 (108.75) was needed to contain as the dip was 108.69. Afterward, it was an amazing reversal as the pair took off to 114.16
GBP/JPY: Just from sheer momentum of the closing 4-hour candle from last week could lead this pair to go further south. Containment should be in the 125.85 to the WS1 level at 125.34. Once that has been completed, then a correction should be playing out.
Of longer term consequence, a look at the monthly chart shows this pair has gone sideways for 2 years. That exceeds a normal cycle. The sideways motion has been in response as a form of a correction to the very strong move that dropped the pair from 251.09. A further LT drop is forthcoming to circa 106.00 after it wins the battle with the all-time low at 118.81.
The closing candle was more powerful than I thought, as the dip was 124.14, and then the reversal took the pair to the peak at 130.18, as this reversal was just as amazing as its cousin, the EUR/JPY .
There will be no Weekly Forecast, so there may be a few pairs that might have additional comments with regards to an analysis
EUR/USD: One thing looks certain, and that is the WR2 at 1.4564 will be containment to the north this week. Watch for reaction if we get to the WS2 at 1.4225.
As an additional note, this pair over the MT should be headed to 1.4710, but should be going sideways at least this week.
Containment to the upside was just a little under the WR1 (1.4479), as the peak was 1.4452. That left enough room under the upper cap for the pair to hit the WS3 (1.4083), as the dip was 1.4054, then bounced hard from there.
Note: I dont want it to be mistaken my recent views on the drop to the monthly tenken or kijun. Once it is complete, it is back in the larger uptrend.
USD/JPY: This pair should be headed to the WS1 at 76.22 to start the week. Im still waiting for the correction back to 80.41, so the WS1 could be the containment level that sends this pair on its journey. The bottom of the daily cloud at 80.73 should be containment before we reverse and head lower. As long as the WS1 holds up, then we can expect the WR2 to be hit this week at 77.84, and maybe a little beyond.
The dip was 76.27, missing the WS1 by 5 pips. The reversal peaked at 80.22. BTW, it may have been implied about the 80.41 mark, but I did not mean it was supposed to be hit this week, even though it came close.
GBP/USD: A convincing break of 1.6520 will signal a move to the top of the monthly cloud at 1.7333, where there will be strong R. and could be containment for a long time. As far as this week is concerned, the initial hit at 1.6520 should contain the upside, if it makes it there this week. The WR2 is 1.6538, so it is feasible. Downside containment needs to be the top of the daily cloud at 1.6328, and allowing for a spike to the WS2 at 1.6306. Keep this in mind for this pair for this week: When either 2 is hit, that is containment.
The peak was 1.6473, missing the WR1 by 7 pips, so there was plenty of room for the move south. The dip was contained by the MS1 (1.6232) as it was 1.6222, and just missing the WS3 by 13 pips.
USD/CHF: This pair is scaring me. Im looking for containment to the downside this week at the WS1 at .7770. Once the corrective process on this leg is finished, there should be a move to the bottom of the monthly SD channel at .7530, and we could see this pair go lower yet.
This pair has been tough lately. The MT projection at .7530 came close to being hit as the dip was .7577.
EUR/CHF: The WR2 at 1.1534 appears to be a very strong R. Like the USD/CHF, this fall is still in process, so it appears the circa area of this weeks WR2 would make for an excellent entry for a MT short. The next MT decision point should be around 1.0950.
Only the WR1 (1.1420) was hit as the peak was 1.1448. The MT projection was wiped out as the dip was 1.0706. The consolation is that as of this writing the price was 1.0950, so a strong move back forced the price to this area.
Note: The favorable scenario is this pair is still headed much lower.
AUD/USD: I was stating last week this pair would have a strong breakout to the upside, and new highs would be realized, and it did happen last week. We can expect newer all-time highs to be made as there is still strong momentum on the weekly chart in the middle of a strong upward channel. This week expect downside containment to be seen at the WS2 at 1.0835, which coincides nicely with the daily tenken.
The MT containment is the daily kijun at 1.0733.
The dip ended up being an unreal 1.0373, as the MT projection from way back was finally hit at the weekly kijun.
Note: Expect the peak at 1.1078 to now contain for at least awhile, but there should be a correction back to 1.0735.
USD/CAD: The 1st level for the week to look for on the upside is .9615. If we get a convincing break of that mark, then this pair could be consolidating. The bottom of the daily cloud at .9670 will be strong R. Regardless of what happens, the top of the daily will contain at .9768. We could see a down move to start the week to the 4-hour kijun at .9496.
We could see a move to my YS2 at .9142 before this year is out.
What a huge run up we had on Thursday! That being said, .9768 did contain, as the peak was .9740.
NZD/USD: Similar to the CHF/JPY, I cant tell you the exact day or week it is going to happen, but this pair is in for a huge reversal. Watch for reaction at my WR1 and WR2 at .8838 and .8889, respectively.
Wow! I hope you were paying attention to this one. The peak was .8838, as the WR1 was hit exactly, and then we got the huge reversal to the dip at .8270.
Note: This is the kind of reversal to expect from the CHF/JPY when it finally happens.
EUR/GBP: Watch for the 1s to be decision points this week, the WR1 at .8803 and the WS1 at .8721. If the DOWN is on, and price hits the WR1, then look for a sharp reversal. If price starts getting comfortable under the WS1, then look for us to go much lower. On the upside, if we only have a small correction from the WR1, then look for the move north to continue. What seems favorable is the move south. As long as this is the case, then I would look for the top of the weekly cloud to contain at .8605.
We started with the move north as the WR1 was hit exactly at .8803. We then got the sharp reversal, and then got a strong move east on top of the WS1 at .8721 (Draw the line on your charts and you will see what I mean.). Then we got the plunge to the dip at .8641.
EUR/JPY: A correction is due of the recent break of the daily TL to at least 112.52, and even possibly the daily kijun at 113.65. Considering the move is against the MT downtrend, this move could take more than just this week to complete, because the WR2 is 112.22. Look for the WS1 to contain any move on the downside at 109.62.
This pair moved in reverse of what I thought it would do. It did keep moving lower as the WS2 (108.75) was needed to contain as the dip was 108.69. Afterward, it was an amazing reversal as the pair took off to 114.16
GBP/JPY: Just from sheer momentum of the closing 4-hour candle from last week could lead this pair to go further south. Containment should be in the 125.85 to the WS1 level at 125.34. Once that has been completed, then a correction should be playing out.
Of longer term consequence, a look at the monthly chart shows this pair has gone sideways for 2 years. That exceeds a normal cycle. The sideways motion has been in response as a form of a correction to the very strong move that dropped the pair from 251.09. A further LT drop is forthcoming to circa 106.00 after it wins the battle with the all-time low at 118.81.
The closing candle was more powerful than I thought, as the dip was 124.14, and then the reversal took the pair to the peak at 130.18, as this reversal was just as amazing as its cousin, the EUR/JPY .
Off to Campmeeting!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for viewing Everyone! This has been an enjoyable week, and I am glad I got so many friends to share it with. Coming up is the best week of the year for my wife and I and many local friends. I'll be back with next week's Weekly Forecast on Friday or Saturday.
Have a good week!!
Thanks for viewing Everyone! This has been an enjoyable week, and I am glad I got so many friends to share it with. Coming up is the best week of the year for my wife and I and many local friends. I'll be back with next week's Weekly Forecast on Friday or Saturday.
Have a good week!!
Re: Off to Campmeeting!!!!!!!!!!
Paul, this week is the best ... hmmm ... I bet you will have equal fun watching the markets this week. I am not sure about the currencies but I will expect them to be following the huge swings that I see in equities and metals (gold / silver).
Coming up is the best week of the year for my wife and I and many local friends.
Re: Off to Campmeeting!!!!!!!!!!
SJD, you're right! This past week is my favorite week of the whole year, but it has nothing to do with trading.
As far as the market moves are concerned, go back and read my recent posts concerning the markets, and you will see that things are going baout as planned.
I got a bunch of e-mails to get caught up on, plus I have to do my Weekly Forecast. I'll do my best to shoot an update at you concerning the Indian markets.
Any rate, I had a wonderful time on vacation, but I am still tickled to be back in the saddle.
SJD, you're right! This past week is my favorite week of the whole year, but it has nothing to do with trading.
As far as the market moves are concerned, go back and read my recent posts concerning the markets, and you will see that things are going baout as planned.
I got a bunch of e-mails to get caught up on, plus I have to do my Weekly Forecast. I'll do my best to shoot an update at you concerning the Indian markets.
Any rate, I had a wonderful time on vacation, but I am still tickled to be back in the saddle.
Paul, this week is the best ... hmmm ... I bet you will have equal fun watching the markets this week. I am not sure about the currencies but I will expect them to be following the huge swings that I see in equities and metals (gold / silver).
Nifty
Nifty NSE 5329 5212 5141 5000 4931 -4811
A few weeks ago I focused on the the 5171 level being taken out, and 2 weeks ago that was the case. In the post of July 22nd, I mentioned the containment would be 5706 or 5761 (Actual peak was 5704 on July 25.). That has also played out. That marked the beginning of a fresh new leg south, and the break of 5171 marked the acceleration process south.
What we should now witness are spurts of recoveries, as there is starting to be room under the daily cloud for this to happen. 5181 could contain, but I would also allow for a strong spike move to the WR2 at 5212. If we go much higher than that, then look for a consolidative move east before we head south again.
The 2 next major targets south to look for any reactions from are 4907 and 4651. Regardless of what happens at 4907, 4651 is still on the radar. If we have no correction to start this week, then 4907 gets hit this week.
Nifty NSE 5329 5212 5141 5000 4931 -4811
A few weeks ago I focused on the the 5171 level being taken out, and 2 weeks ago that was the case. In the post of July 22nd, I mentioned the containment would be 5706 or 5761 (Actual peak was 5704 on July 25.). That has also played out. That marked the beginning of a fresh new leg south, and the break of 5171 marked the acceleration process south.
What we should now witness are spurts of recoveries, as there is starting to be room under the daily cloud for this to happen. 5181 could contain, but I would also allow for a strong spike move to the WR2 at 5212. If we go much higher than that, then look for a consolidative move east before we head south again.
The 2 next major targets south to look for any reactions from are 4907 and 4651. Regardless of what happens at 4907, 4651 is still on the radar. If we have no correction to start this week, then 4907 gets hit this week.
A further reflection on Nifty
SJD, There was some more volatile activity last week. But keep in mind that is happened just the way it should have according to the TA's. Nifty had the 5171 broken. That is like a major dam break. It becomes a leviathan type of break. You can also add to that the perfect confluential reversal at the top of the channel. It all adds up to some very quick points for you Nifty traders.
SJD, There was some more volatile activity last week. But keep in mind that is happened just the way it should have according to the TA's. Nifty had the 5171 broken. That is like a major dam break. It becomes a leviathan type of break. You can also add to that the perfect confluential reversal at the top of the channel. It all adds up to some very quick points for you Nifty traders.
Re: Nifty
When you talk about 4651 being on the radar ... let's talk about the upside too. Where do you see Nifty maxing out in the mid term future (2-3 months)?
The 2 next major targets south to look for any reactions from are 4907 and 4651. Regardless of what happens at 4907, 4651 is still on the radar. If we have no correction to start this week, then 4907 gets hit this week.
Re: Nifty
SJD, this is officially a freight train. The best way to address the question is in terms of containment levels, which do not necessarily mean they will be hit. The daily kijun is 5352. If broken, then the bottom of the cloud would contain at 5474. For now, the R in my previous post looks tough. If that is broken, then it will lead to them market going sideways, then at least you will be bale to regroup, catch your breath, then prepare for a short entry.
SJD, this is officially a freight train. The best way to address the question is in terms of containment levels, which do not necessarily mean they will be hit. The daily kijun is 5352. If broken, then the bottom of the cloud would contain at 5474. For now, the R in my previous post looks tough. If that is broken, then it will lead to them market going sideways, then at least you will be bale to regroup, catch your breath, then prepare for a short entry.
When you talk about 4651 being on the radar ... let's talk about the upside too. Where do you see Nifty maxing out in the mid term future (2-3 months)?
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