Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Sbi

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SBI 2330 2265 2227 2150 2112 -2046

Along with my analysis, I wanted to post this relative to the price action, and show why a further move south is going to be very predictable.

In June I was talking about this pair and the bullish bias I had (on my blog), because it was so OS. The first objective on this weekly chart was the tenken. It acted as perfect R, then it went sideways, and then hit the kijun perfectly. That is all that is needed to fulfill any upside movement, even though we talked about the cloud being containment. Notice the size of the candles on the last leg south as opposed to the trip north that proceeded it. The candles going north are much smaller. With such OS conditions, it could be expected for the move to have stronger teeth in it. Instead it was weak, and the kijun was all that was needed to contain the move. Then, on the subsequent reversal 3 candles was all that was needed to do the work of the 5 candles on the UP.
With this market, only think south.

Once we get a comfortable break under the recent MT dip at 2121, you can expect a similar move to what we saw from Nifty. It should pick up steam to the longer term target area of 1707.
If we have a correction to start the week, then it should be contained by the WR1 at 2227.

 

[EagleOne]

What do you know! The Nifty Oracle is back!!

Hello, Paul. Good to see you. Had a nice vacation?

I absolutely love this line of yours 'Regardless of what happens at 4907, 4651 is still on the radar.' When you said of 4700 in your earlier post, I thought to myself, 'wait a minute. Paul must be talking in round figures. Cause the way I see it, nifty will have to touch the area between 4661-4638 - even through a shadow!'
Funny thing is, while looking at the chart, a part of me tries find some escape route North for the Nifty for good. But the existing pattern refuses to support my wishful thinking. I just hope there should be some deeper meaning to what Larry Williams said, "Charts do not move the markets. Markets move the markets!"

PS. It's been raining here non-stop for the last day and half. I had planned to go for trout fishing this weekend, but the river is all muddy and swollen. I can hear its roar right now. Guess, I have to remain holed-up this whole week-end!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eagle, yes, it was the 1st week in August. It's the grandest vacation of the year. Just a wonderful time. I'm counting down to Aug 3, 2012 (lol). Actually, I do have a few journeys planned before that, as in September. but my computer goes with me on that trip.

When we were around 5600, I spoke in round terms in order to give a conceptual idea from that point. Now we are getting closer and no longer need binoculars to see 4907 and 4651.
BTW, there is also possibility of a longer term fall to 4300 and 3500. That is not confirmed yet, but then, there are those round numbers again.

I agree with Larry Williams on that point. Charts give the picturesque view of the movement of the markets. The charts are the road map into the future. Just follow the road map while in the present, and then make lots of money.

What do you know! The Nifty Oracle is back!!

Hello, Paul. Good to see you. Had a nice vacation?

I absolutely love this line of yours 'Regardless of what happens at 4907, 4651 is still on the radar.' When you said of 4700 in your earlier post, I thought to myself, 'wait a minute. Paul must be talking in round figures. Cause the way I see it, nifty will have to touch the area between 4661-4638 - even through a shadow!'
Funny thing is, while looking at the chart, a part of me tries find some escape route North for the Nifty for good. But the existing pattern refuses to support my wishful thinking. I just hope there should be some deeper meaning to what Larry Williams said, "Charts do not move the markets. Markets move the markets!"

PS. It's been raining here non-stop for the last day and half. I had planned to go for trout fishing this weekend, but the river is all muddy and swollen. I can hear its roar right now. Guess, I have to remain holed-up this whole week-end!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Swissy report

This is providing an excellent trading opportunity with very low risk. The favored scenario for the USD/CHF is for the weekly tenken to initially hold at .7808. If this market ranges much higher than that, then there will be another volatile push north.In essence a stop around .7840 would be prudent, and then watch for a retreat to the mid .7300's. This market is extremely volatile still. Look for Swissy to push all the crosses.

 

[EagleOne]

You don't say! Gosh, what a coincidence! A few days back I was talking to Nbolar(a fellow TJ member) on the fone, and I said the same thing! That, if Nifty goes to 4700ish, and starts sidewinding, there are more chances of it falling in the abyss towards 3474 candle!

Market never lies, Paul. That is my observation. It always gives signs of things to come. Many scrips are already at the brink of their all time lows. I hope my fellow traders are also watchful of these signs.

And, Paul, let me confess something. It was your post that talked of 5000 when market started its fall. When I tried to draw others' attention to it, they thought I was being paranoid. However, that single post of yours got me to learning all sorts of chart languages. Thanks.

I only wish you had written that post when market was receding from 6000s, I would have saved myself a huge packet! Though, I did manage to save a 'small' packet eventually by selling all my portfolio's equities in one go.


By the way, I am going to start my blog. Will let you know when it's online.

Take care. Good night.

Eagle, yes, it was the 1st week in August. It's the grandest vacation of the year. Just a wonderful time. I'm counting down to Aug 3, 2012 (lol). Actually, I do have a few journeys planned before that, as in September. but my computer goes with me on that trip.

When we were around 5600, I spoke in round terms in order to give a conceptual idea from that point. Now we are getting closer and no longer need binoculars to see 4907 and 4651.
BTW, there is also possibility of a longer term fall to 4300 and 3500. That is not confirmed yet, but then, there are those round numbers again.

I agree with Larry Williams on that point. Charts give the picturesque view of the movement of the markets. The charts are the road map into the future. Just follow the road map while in the present, and then make lots of money.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eagle, I look forward to your blog. I will be there.

Eagle, here is one thing about a chart. You can cover up the name of the market, and even the prices. Just let me plot my methodology on it. The only thing I would have to do if the prices were covered up is point on the "map" where price action is headed. As you mentioned, the market never lies. When we moved from California to Ohio, we needed a map to discern the proper direction to take for our journey. It did not matter the name of the freeway or the names of the cities we were passing through. We just needed to know how to get to our new hometown.
Our charts are the same way. We don't need to know the name of the market we are trading (I never traded Nifty in my life.), and we don't even need to know the price. We just need to know where it is headed on the map.

Yes, I think Nbolar is the one with the avatar that looks like a ghost. There was no panic. The map said we are headed south, so the object is to do as it says, "Go south!"

I don't know if it was here or my blog when I said that Nifty was in for a magnificent drop when it was near 6200. It was because of that reading I came up with the term, "trifecta".

I think once we get to 4651, it will be purely reactionary to determine the next longer term future move of the market.

You don't say! Gosh, what a coincidence! A few days back I was talking to Nbolar(a fellow TJ member) on the fone, and I said the same thing! That, if Nifty goes to 4700ish, and starts sidewinding, there are more chances of it falling in the abyss towards 3474 candle!

Market never lies, Paul. That is my observation. It always gives signs of things to come. Many scrips are already at the brink of their all time lows. I hope my fellow traders are also watchful of these signs.

And, Paul, let me confess something. It was your post that talked of 5000 when market started its fall. When I tried to draw others' attention to it, they thought I was being paranoid. However, that single post of yours got me to learning all sorts of chart languages. Thanks.

I only wish you had written that post when market was receding from 6000s, I would have saved myself a huge packet! Though, I did manage to save a 'small' packet eventually by selling all my portfolio's equities in one go.


By the way, I am going to start my blog. Will let you know when it's online.

Take care. Good night.

 

[EagleOne]

Uh-oh, I was about shut the computer down for the day, and there you are with the reply. Got to postpone the 'good night' for another post!


That journey to Ohio from California is a brilliant analogy, Paul.

To add to it, I remember watching interview of one of the sharpest traders, Linda Raschke. She said very cooly, 'Give me any market, and a few minutes with it. I will trade it in profit.'

The lesser minds would think she's being arrogant. In fact, she was just being factual!

That 'trifecta' term of yours must find a place in the next editions of lexicons, believe me.

And, oh, Nbolar doesn't have any avatar. Ghost looklike is my friend SG's. His real foto, I presume!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Chf/jpy

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This pair did go a little higher than expected, as I plotted the containment point on the chart. The blue TL might be containment for awhile, but as I mentioned before, look for a huge reversal, and the journey has only begun.

That was a high-low drop of 1,020 pips last week alone.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I know it sounds arrogant making such blog comments like that, but it is just the experience, and treat the chart exactly as it is, without any regard to what it is or what is going on around what it is. This is why I believe in 100% TA's.

A friend of mine that I coined the phrase on him, "The Great One", Max McKegg was saying since the USD/CHF was at 1.6000 that is was going to drop to .7300. Well, last week it arrived to its destination. I don't think when back in May 2002, when he said that, he had any idea of all the hype of what the Swiss banks were going to be doing.

You coined the phrase perfectly, "lesser minds would think she's being arrogant". Many times conclusions are made without thinking the process through. I don't have anything against ammo(ing) up on someone if you know what you are shooting at. Linda Raschke is the type you just say, "Yes maam" to. Anything accusatorial tells me the accuser does not know what he is talking about.

Eagle, this is your fault I can't shut up (lol). Having said what I said about Linda, I don't mind the term, "Prove it". Sometimes I make bold statements hoping someone will say that. OTOH, the "lesser minds" consider it hunting season and they are after my head. That's really a lot of fun. They always miss the aim, because they don't know these jungles like I know them (Yeah, yeah. Now that sounds arrogant.)

Okay, Eagle. Quit flapping those wings, find a nest, and get some rest.
Even eagles need a break.

Uh-oh, I was about shut the computer down for the day, and there you are with the reply. Got to postpone the 'good night' for another post!


That journey to Ohio from California is a brilliant analogy, Paul.

To add to it, I remember watching interview of one of the sharpest traders, Linda Raschke. She said very cooly, 'Give me any market, and a few minutes with it. I will trade it in profit.'

The lesser minds would think she's being arrogant. In fact, she was just being factual!

That 'trifecta' term of yours must find a place in the next editions of lexicons, believe me.

And, oh, Nbolar doesn't have any avatar. Ghost looklike is my friend SG's. His real foto, I presume!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly Forecast-- 081411

EUR/USD: The WR2 at 1.4410 needs to hold, or we are back in the uptrend towards 1.4500 and possibly beyond. For the time being, I am still holding to my MT view of cluster S being hit at 1.3906, and maybe cluster S at 1.3833. As long as the WR2 holds, then we should be headed to the WS1 at 1.4163. Depended on the nature of the move we could be headed to the WS2 at 1.4081.

USD/JPY: This pair should be on its way to the WS2 this week at 75.50. We could see a rather strong spike that could take the pair into the low 75.00s. We could see the WR1 at 77.28 to the north.

GBP/USD: This pair is going to seem a little lost to start the week. It seems the correction to the UP is imminent, as well see a fall to the 4-hour tenken at 1.6213, and even allowing for a drop to the WS1 at 1.6174. I would expect that once the correction is finished that enough momentum should carry this pair past the top of the 4-hour cloud at 1.6358 and onward to the WR2 at 1.6472.

My longer term projection is now for the top of the monthly cloud to be hit at 1.7333. As of now, that should contain for a move that will see the USD exhibit python strength against the GBP. Within the next 3-4 years, I expect the all-time low at 1.3503 to be broken.

USD/CHF: It has not been too often of late when I feel I have an accurate read on this pair. Im looking for the weekly tenken to contain this week at .7808, and then a strong reversal to the WS2 at .7383. The WS2 becomes a decision point after it is hit.

EUR/CHF: This pair had a very strong impulsive 1,000-pip thrust from the dip last week. That could contain for awhile and lead to some very broad range volatile consolidation. This week, the daily kijun at 1.1116 should be hit, but any upside action should be contained by the confluence of the failing daily TL at 1.1380 and the WR1 at 1.1392. There is plenty of room to take the jet south to at least 1.0802, and even the mid 10500s, so be careful going either way.

AUD/USD: This week appears put cut-n-dry, and the S&Rs tell the story. The range appears to be the WR1 and the WS2, 1.0497 and 1.0070, respectively.

I mentioned in another post this market is headed higher, and that perspective has not changed. For now, there is going to be a longer term consolidative move, as there is now heavy momentum favoring a much further drop. Supports along the way will be the weekly cloud top at .9770, monthly kijun at .9390, and even a possible drop to .9118.

USD/CAD: Last week I mentioned somewhere that the YS2 at .9068 could (key word) be hit. That is no longer the case. The only thing that has to happen this week is the daily cloud top needs to hold at .9739. That figure coincides nicely with my WS2 at .9733.

MT, the next major obstacle is getting through the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.0135, and then to the top at 1.0257. The monthly implications are showing possible moves to 1.0566 and 1.1060.

NZD/USD: We got that strong reversal I was talking about, as the weekly kijun was hit at .7973. Once we get a close under the kijun, then that would also effectively put this pair under the daily cloud, and then we hop the jet again for a ride to .7522.
For this week, I would look for strong R to be found at the weekly tenken at .8380, daily kijun at .8400 with containment at the WR1 at .8448. After that, the journey south should resume.

EUR/GBP: This market looks consolidative this week. It is hard to see beyond the 1s--.8811 and .8687, WR1 and WS1, respectively. Ultimately, the weekly cloud at .8605 will be hit. In the event that is broken, then .8510 provides solid MT containment.

EUR/JPY: This pair has finally made the break out of the weekly cloud and has now been given the right of way to speed things up towards more southern hospitality. Any recovery this week should be limited well under the daily tenken at 111.08. The WR1 is 110.45, so that should be a nice area to pick up the ticket for the next major move south. We could see the WS2 at 106.88 get paid a visit this week.

GBP/JPY: Any correction should be limited well under the daily TK combo at 127.03. This is where the WR1 at 126.36 becomes helpful. As long as it contains, then the WS2 at 121.75 should be hit.