Weekly Review--082111
EUR/USD: This week containment to the south should be 1.4237, which matches nicely with my WS2 at 1.4249. Overall, there is still much MT support which is disallowing the pair to head lower. OTOH, as the pair looks higher, there is much consolidation. If we get above 1.4600, it could be a very quick trip to 1.4900s.
The pair never came close to containment as the dip was 1.4326. Momentum appears to be moving north, even though the 1.4600 mark was not approached, as the peak was 1.4499.
USD/JPY: There is plenty of room for this pair to move north, but the nature of the move would be corrective only. I wont be surprised to see the WR3 at 77.67 hit this week. Temporary downside containment is circa 75.10.
Price action did hit the WR3 as the peak was 77.68, just 1 pip on the other side. It was 20 hours later price action saw it back at the WP at 76.51. The dip was hit earlier in the week at 76.44.
GBP/USD: The weekly kijun has been hit the last 5 consecutive weeks and should contain again this week at 1.6261, which matches nicely with my WS2 at 1.6264. If the pair makes it back to that level, then there may be no new highs this week as the WR1 could be the limit at 1.6564. Still, the Wr2 is worth keeping an eye on at 1.6665.
Even though the dip was 1.6206, the weekly kijun still contained as price bounced hard, and we had a close above it at 1.6361. For this week, it was the WR1 that contained as the peak was 1.6571.
USD/CHF: Im looking for this pair to make a move to the daily kijun at .7671, and would not be surprised to see the WS3 hit this week at .7600. The WR2 at .7988 has to contain to the north, or we will have another Swissy mess.
Another Swissy mess, as I highlighted the 229-pip 1 hour spike. The peak was .8155. All I can say is the WR3 (.8102) contained.
EUR/CHF: Im looking for this pair to make a move to the daily kijun at 1.0977, and would not be surprised to see the WS3 hit this week at 1.0895. Look for the WR2 at 1.1520 to contain to the north. The WR1 at 1.1409 is favored.
Me and the Swissy pairs have not been getting along lately. The peak was 1.1732. All I can say is the WR3 (1.1703) contained.
AUD/USD: This week we should see a move to the daily tenken at 1.0263, and even allowing for a spike to the WS2 at 1.0243. Depended on the nature of this move containment to the north will be either the WR1 or WR2, 1.0480 and 1.0559, respectively.
There was a very slow move across the WP to start the week, and then the pair progressed east until Friday, when it hit the northern gears to the peak at 1.0591, 32 pips on the other side of WR2.
USD/CAD: If last weeks top at .9936 is taken out, then it could be a very strong move to 1.0081. Nevertheless, that circa area will be containment, as from there, we will see some consolidation before a move further north is witnessed. The .9707--.9756 appears to be strong MT containment to the south.
The circa area (.9910) did contain, as the peak was made on Friday at .9922, and that was after it dipped on Thursday to .9789, well above the containment area.
NZD/USD: As far as this week is concerned, we just had a fresh break under the 4-hour cloud. It is expected that the kijun will contain at .8295, which coincides with the WR2 at .8319. The bottom of the daily cloud is .8128, which should serve as strong S, and the WS1 is .8110. We might see some sideways action before the next strong move south. Things should pick up once there is a convincing break of the daily cloud.
In the middle of the longer term downtrend, we did have the move north as the peak was established beyond the WR2 (WR2) at .8415, and contained under the weekly tenken at .8400. The pair finished at .8395.
EUR/GBP: The TK combo at .8773 will be initial R. If broken, then there is a shot at the bottom of the cloud at .8845. The bottom of the cloud matches nicely with my WR2 at .8839. The area should be containment to the north. To the south, look for the top of the weekly cloud to provide strong S at .8599, even though I doubt it will be hit this week.
The peak for the week was established at .8866, just under the daily tenken.
EUR/JPY: This pair has made it back into the 4-hour cloud, and the momentum indicates it should be a lock to hit the top at 111.08. That level matches perfectly with the daily kijun, and it even allows for a spike to the WR2 at 111.28. Believe it or not, this will be a decision point and could result in a strong move either way. There is double divergence on the daily, and the weekly is getting the squeeze put on it, in spite of a mild break of the bottom of the cloud. If the mentioned R area is taken out, then the next point to look for a reaction at would be 112.46.
The pair formed a quardruple top on top of the WR2 as the peak was 111.63. Once it wore out its visit upstairs, it had a strong reversal on Friday to the dip at 110.08.
GBP/JPY: The weekly TL is losing a lot of its elasticity. A convincing break of 126.26 will lead this pair to some consolidation over coming weeks before starting another leg south. Look for upside containment to be between the bottom of the weekly cloud at 130.47 and the kijun at 131.35.
I should have mentioned that is a MT view. 126.26 was broken, but it was not convincing enough as the peak was contained by the WR2 (127.09) on Monday at 127.29. A very strong 4-hour reversal candle sent this pair rolling down the hill the rest of the week as the dip was 124.44.
