Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/usd

Cable will spike to start the week to the bottom of the cloud.

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[4xpipcounter]

Aud/usd

First, I should not have post the previous view on GBP/USD. There were the obviations of a spike south, but nothing of tradable value, so I should not have posted it.

This drive north for the Aussie has had some teeth in it. It's about to come to an end. Look for the WR1 at 1.0638 to at least be temporary containment, if not be a complete reversal for the week. The nature of the initial move will tell a lot. For now, look for containment to be circa 1.0496.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Nifty

Keerthi, I can't post the monthlies until Thursday, which is the 1st day of September.
Feel free to remind me here or on my blog if I forget on Thursday. I'll admit that the monthlies are easy for me to forget.

Hi Mr.Paul,

Requesting to post Indian market weeklies & Nifty monthly levels here also (like "4xpipcounter.blogspot. com/").

Regards,
Keerthi

 

[keerthi405]

Re: Nifty

Mr.Paul,

I will.
Keerthi

Keerthi, I can't post the monthlies until Thursday, which is the 1st day of September.
Feel free to remind me here or on my blog if I forget on Thursday. I'll admit that the monthlies are easy for me to forget.

 

[sanjosedesi]

Re: Nifty

Keerthi, I can't post the monthlies until Thursday, which is the 1st day of September.

Paul, this brings about a theoretical question for you. BTW, the previous Q&A was great.

Some markets are more continuous than others. I think you yourself have mentioned about forex markets being open almost all the time. Is the definition of monthly / weekly purely arbitrary? If we wanted to, and if we had great software to churn out these numbers in no time, would we not be able to always have a look ahead of next 4 weeks? Will those forecasts be as good as the forecasts generated at the month end? Since many traders use this arbitrary definition, and since many contracts roll over at specified time of the month, I would expect there to be a difference because everyone is using the same frame of reference. Using a different frame of reference, say from 15th of a month to next 15th might not work out equally well. What are your thoughts on this?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Nifty

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I'm enjoying your questions. It seems you are asking some questions that others might a little timid to ask, so I'm sure it helps others.

Paul, this brings about a theoretical question for you. BTW, the previous Q&A was great.

Some markets are more continuous than others. I think you yourself have mentioned about forex markets being open almost all the time. Is the definition of monthly / weekly purely arbitrary?
There is nothing arbitrary about my monthlies and weeklies. They come solely from a mathematical derivation. OTOH, another look at past history, and you would think they are based on chart S&R's. A look at the 4-hour chart of the AUD/USD bears that fact out. The basic trend of a market is always consistent, and this is why today's price action is an indication of what will happen tomorrow.
If we wanted to, and if we had great software to churn out these numbers in no time, would we not be able to always have a look ahead of next 4 weeks? Will those forecasts be as good as the forecasts generated at the month end?
Yes, you might have being to make a program that could copy my S&R's, but the forecasts for any 4-week period will be different than for a calendar month. First of all, there is 4.3482 weeks in a month. If you go from the 15th to the 15th, those levels will be different than the calendar month.
Another thing you could do is make the monthlies arbitrary by having 30 levels every month (1st--1st, 2nd-2nd, 3rd-3rd, etc.) All of those 30 levels could not possibly be right. At the least, most of them would have to be wrong.
There is a better way to explain myself using the weeklies as an analogy. I could easily prove how aimless the S&R's appear (And don't forget, I'm used to a high degree of accuracy and predictability with them.) by showing what they look like if I went from, i.e, Wednesday to Wednesday, but it is too much grunt work, so I'm asking you to just believe me.
Notice in my Weekly Review how that most of the times the final levels are hit on Fridays, yet on Thursdays they seem so far away. This is because Fridays is a very strong hi-lo move on the range, because of all the volume that is generated on Fridays. Also, Mondays--Wednesdays are easy to trade the bounce using solely the S&R's. If the week started on Fridays, there would be continuations on most markets, and the levels would be blown out of the water the first day of the week if the week started on Friday.

Since many traders use this arbitrary definition, and since many contracts roll over at specified time of the month, I would expect there to be a difference because everyone is using the same frame of reference. Using a different frame of reference, say from 15th of a month to next 15th might not work out equally well. What are your thoughts on this?
I have no thoughts concerning contracts and when they rollover. I don't trade options, so I'm oblivious to how they work. All my convictions are based solely on what I see on the charts. After all, if you read back in this thread, Eagle gave me a blank chart (No name of the market and no rates.) with my methodology plotted on it, and then asked me to forecast it, which I did. I use my methodology to forecast local weather with a high degree of accuracy. Those events certainly had nothing to do with options or expiries.

 

[sanjosedesi]

Thanks Paul. BTW, I believe we (India) have 2 trading holidays this week, Wednesday and Thursday. I read elsewhere it was Wednesday and Friday, but it seems one holiday has shifted. FYI if you see no data on some days ...

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Nifty

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It looks like we have to settle for 4714 rather than 4657. We had a powerful spike to start the week which abetted the effort to take out the TL. It also rampaged my weeklies.
The levels I have to go by this week would be as plotted by the software, but keeping an eye on 4997 as a reaction.

The consolidative correction process has started. For now, that is my view until I see a pattern of a longer term reversal. I could say my longer term target was met 50 points early, and that is it. I'm still not convinced we could be headed lower. ST, look for 4973 to contain. We should get a move back to 4875, and then another leg of the correction

This market is around the corner from taking a rest from its downtrend. Levels with regards to the ichimoku and the SD channels are dynamic, but I did say somewhere (Just don't want to do the grunt work to look it up.) that 4657 is the next major target after 5171 is broken. The WS1 is 4674, so we can look for that to contain, and then bring on what could amount to a MT choppy correction. Originally I said the correction would take us back to 5220. That is subject to change, but for now, I'll hold to that figure. To actually pinpoint a containment level for the correction is tough because everything in sight is so bearish. It's just this point is an extremity, and it has to give up some of the losses.

 

[4xpipcounter]

If that is the case, then look for some monster moves on Friday. Just make sure you are on the right side of the trade if you are still up on Tuesday.

Thanks Paul. BTW, I believe we (India) have 2 trading holidays this week, Wednesday and Thursday. I read elsewhere it was Wednesday and Friday, but it seems one holiday has shifted. FYI if you see no data on some days ...

 

[sanjosedesi]

If that is the case, then look for some monster moves on Friday. Just make sure you are on the right side of the trade if you are still up on Tuesday.

What could be more monstrous than the last 2 days (Monday this week, and Friday last week)? I guess I better disconnect the TV and internet until next week.