Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On

[docvijay4u]

OffTopic:

<Deleted>

Thanks.

 

[rohit.patidar]

hi to every one,
plez give your comments on Dabur india it look good to purchases on monday.

 

[docvijay4u]

Thank You. I Just Posted Picture What SavantJi Explained. Whole Credit Goes To SavantJi, For Sharing Such Great Ideas With Us. I Will Try My Best To Follow Along This Concept And Post Relevant Results.

One Small Request PKamalesh Sir 'You Can Call Me Only Doc Or Vijay(I'm Yet A Student).'

Thanks.

Hey Doc sir and Savant sir..Just looked at the charts..Simply Superb..Simple explainations and great indications of a confirmed up/down move...Doc sir, if we can do this simple candle study everyday it would be great...Looking forward to contribute and learn from you seniors..Cheerz..

PS: The Volumes Are very important since we could be Looking at a false BD/BO...The Volumes can be used for confirmations after a BEar/Bull Candle..

 

[SavantGarde]

Vicky, Balram, Doc & Everybody Else Interested,

Vicky,

I Thought You Would Be Able To Crack It.....Especially After Giving You The Clue That It Was Based On 20 & 50 DMA

Hmmmmm......Ok Here It Goes While It Is Simple It Is Quite Powerful For Short Term Investors.

To Illustrate, I Have Taken The First One From My Post Of 5th April Which Is HDIL

HDIL CMP On 05/04/2009 Was 101.55 While The High Was 103.15

20 DMA Crossed Over On The Upside Of 50 DMA On That Day Thus Triggering A BUY For The Following Day

Since The High Was 103.15, It Was Told To BUY @ 103.15

Stop Loss Was 77.50 Is The 50 DMA Crossing Over 20 DMA Whenever That Happened In The Past....Therefore The Stop Loss Of 77.50

Now Coming To The Target Price

BUY Price - Stop Loss = 25.65 + 103.15 (BUY Price) = 128.80 (1st Target)Extra 5 Paise Added As Your Bonus....

1) BUY HDIL (CMP 101.55) @ 103.15
Quantity 7 Shares
Stop Loss 77.50
First Target 128.85

Does That Solve The Mystery Of How The Target Price Is Achieved....

I Guess It Does......

If The Market Is Volatile & Range Bound There Is Another Trick For A Trailing Stop Loss & Exit.

Lets Say On The 6th You Bought At 103.15 & After Buying You Immediately Kept A Stop Loss Of 77.50 (50 DMA)

Now The Following Day To Trail The Move, You Calculate A New Stop Loss For 49 DMA, Whatever Figure You Get Becomes The New Stop Loss For That Day.
So On & So Forth You Keep Reducing 1 Day From DMA Calculation For Each Day Elapsed From The Date Of Entry, Reducing Till You Reach 10 DMA After Which You Don't Reduce The DMA Calculation..... Simple !!!

Vicky, Break Your Head Over The Quantity Of Shares To Be Bought, You Have 7 Days From Today To Come Up With The Answer....

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

 

[vicky_ag]

Savant Sir,
Thanks for thinking so high of me, to be able to crack that DMA calculation
For the calculation you are using risk to reward ratio(RRR) as 1:1.

The crossover of 50 to 20 happened on 2 Feb, 2009, that day, Open was 91.2, High was 95, low was 80.5 and close was 85.1 so, how come 77.5 ?
Am, I missing something?
savant sir, please put a chart on this...:thumb:

Coming to the point of position size calculation, can you provide me with your capital figures? So that I can try and calculate the position sizes you are taking?

Also, if you are trying to develop an intraday system, what day would you recommend as the worse day? I mean the day which you would reckon can break the back of any system ??

Vicky, Balram, Doc & Everybody Else Interested,

Vicky,

I Thought You Would Be Able To Crack It.....Especially After Giving You The Clue That It Was Based On 20 & 50 DMA

Hmmmmm......Ok Here It Goes While It Is Simple It Is Quite Powerful For Short Term Investors.

To Illustrate, I Have Taken The First One From My Post Of 5th April Which Is HDIL

HDIL CMP On 05/04/2009 Was 101.55 While The High Was 103.15

20 DMA Crossed Over On The Upside Of 50 DMA On That Day Thus Triggering A BUY For The Following Day

Since The High Was 103.15, It Was Told To BUY @ 103.15

Stop Loss Was 77.50 Is The 50 DMA Crossing Over 20 DMA Whenever That Happened In The Past....Therefore The Stop Loss Of 77.50

Now Coming To The Target Price

BUY Price - Stop Loss = 25.65 + 103.15 (BUY Price) = 128.80 (1st Target)Extra 5 Paise Added As Your Bonus....



Does That Solve The Mystery Of How The Target Price Is Achieved....

I Guess It Does......

If The Market Is Volatile & Range Bound There Is Another Trick For A Trailing Stop Loss & Exit.

Lets Say On The 6th You Bought At 103.15 & After Buying You Immediately Kept A Stop Loss Of 77.50 (50 DMA)

Now The Following Day To Trail The Move, You Calculate A New Stop Loss For 49 DMA, Whatever Figure You Get Becomes The New Stop Loss For That Day.
So On & So Forth You Keep Reducing 1 Day From DMA Calculation For Each Day Elapsed From The Date Of Entry, Reducing Till You Reach 10 DMA After Which You Don't Reduce The DMA Calculation..... Simple !!!

Vicky, Break Your Head Over The Quantity Of Shares To Be Bought, You Have 7 Days From Today To Come Up With The Answer....

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

 

[balraj167]

Vicky, Balram, Doc & Everybody Else Interested,

Vicky,

I Thought You Would Be Able To Crack It.....Especially After Giving You The Clue That It Was Based On 20 & 50 DMA

Hmmmmm......Ok Here It Goes While It Is Simple It Is Quite Powerful For Short Term Investors.

To Illustrate, I Have Taken The First One From My Post Of 5th April Which Is HDIL

HDIL CMP On 05/04/2009 Was 101.55 While The High Was 103.15

20 DMA Crossed Over On The Upside Of 50 DMA On That Day Thus Triggering A BUY For The Following Day

Since The High Was 103.15, It Was Told To BUY @ 103.15

Stop Loss Was 77.50 Is The 50 DMA Crossing Over 20 DMA Whenever That Happened In The Past....Therefore The Stop Loss Of 77.50

Now Coming To The Target Price

BUY Price - Stop Loss = 25.65 + 103.15 (BUY Price) = 128.80 (1st Target)Extra 5 Paise Added As Your Bonus....

Does That Solve The Mystery Of How The Target Price Is Achieved....

I Guess It Does......

If The Market Is Volatile & Range Bound There Is Another Trick For A Trailing Stop Loss & Exit.

Lets Say On The 6th You Bought At 103.15 & After Buying You Immediately Kept A Stop Loss Of 77.50 (50 DMA)

Now The Following Day To Trail The Move, You Calculate A New Stop Loss For 49 DMA, Whatever Figure You Get Becomes The New Stop Loss For That Day.
So On & So Forth You Keep Reducing 1 Day From DMA Calculation For Each Day Elapsed From The Date Of Entry, Reducing Till You Reach 10 DMA After Which You Don't Reduce The DMA Calculation..... Simple !!!

Vicky, Break Your Head Over The Quantity Of Shares To Be Bought, You Have 7 Days From Today To Come Up With The Answer....

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

Hi Savant,

Thanks for the explaining, i would like to ask that DMA and Simple moving average is the same or different, sorry if I am asking stupid question.

If it is simple moving average when i use the same on my AMIBROKER it showing some wrong data please find attached chart for HDIL as crossing of 20 and 50 SMA is on the date of 9th April 09 but when I check on Icharts.com it is crossing same as you mention above that means something is wrong with my data or with amibroker if you can put some light on this.

I request to DOC vijay also if you know please advice on the same.

Best regards
Balram

 

[sameerspjcm]

Hi Savant

I am also facing the same Q as vicky...request u to put a chart for clarity.

One basic doubt: When is EMA more useful than SMA?

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Balram,

Yes, DMA Is Same As SMA, Now EMA Is Not Something I Have Tried, BUt Can Always Tweak Using EMA or Weighted Moving Average To See Results & Adopt Whatever You Are Comfortable With, Basic Principles Will Remain In Place.

Hi Sameer & Vicky,

Please Check The Amount Of Historical Data You Have Loaded In Your Charting Software, Preferably 150 Days Data Should Be Present In The System To Calculate Correctly, Or Else Errors May Creep In.

Also Check Whether The System Is Calculating For Open, High Or Low, Default Should Be For Close.

Any System Signal Can Break Down Anytime, That Is Why One Has Stop Loss To Be Alive & Remain In The Market. No System Can Be Full Proof, Their Efficiency Is Calculated Based On Consistent Risk Reward Ratio.

Vicky, My Young Friend You Need To Be More Observant, Cause Looks Like You Read A Synopsis Of A Novel & Think You Know The Whole Story....That Remark Of Mine Pertains To The Capital Part Of Your Query, Please Go Back To The Original Post Of The 5th April & Read The FOOTNOTE In Purple At The Bottom. If At First Glance You Don't Understand Read It Again & Again & Againnnnnn

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

 

[docvijay4u]

Hi Balraj, I'm Also Getting Same Picture. I Have 6 Month EOD Data. So It May Be Due To Database As SavantJi Mentioned. As Calls Were Posted On 4'th April For 6'th April, We Should See Crossover On 2'nd April Itself( As 3, 4, 5 April Were Holiday). Sometimes SavantJi's Eagle Eyes Catches Such Sharks Very Soon Even Before Coming Close To Surface. It Is Not Surprising If We See Such Sharks Sitting Politely In His Basket.

Let Us See If SavantJi Post A Chart.

Thanks.

Hi Savant,

Thanks for the explaining, i would like to ask that DMA and Simple moving average is the same or different, sorry if I am asking stupid question.

If it is simple moving average when i use the same on my AMIBROKER it showing some wrong data please find attached chart for HDIL as crossing of 20 and 50 SMA is on the date of 9th April 09 but when I check on Icharts.com it is crossing same as you mention above that means something is wrong with my data or with amibroker if you can put some light on this.

I request to DOC vijay also if you know please advice on the same.

Best regards
Balram

 

[vicky_ag]

Savant Sir,
I am having the data from 24-7-07 for HDIL. Also, using SMA applied at close. But still the cross at 8th. Checked icharts and as balraj points out it does have a crossover on 2nd. Also, tried investbulls chart, they also say crossover on 8th. Tried metastock with same result?
How can this error be coming? Please help us out here.

@Sameer: EMA is an exponential moving average which puts more emphasis on current prices as compared to simple which gives equal weighted to every price in a range. If you use, a high value for average calculation like say for 200 period, it is better to use SMA, as it will smooth out over a period of time. But, when in close range like 5, 4 it is better to use EMA , which will try and catch the trend by crossing over at an earlier time.