Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On
- Thread starter SavantGarde
- Start date
- Tags afl amibroker
- Status
Just adding my 2 cents to the discussion on BBs -
In positional trades, BBs might give a temporary sell indication but the same stock might never give a buy indication after because it never touches the lower BB but consolidates for a few days and runs up. This is very typical in trending markets. Only in range bound markets, will we get the "clean BB trades".
As prasad correctly points out, look at your favourite list of stocks and how they have behaved in various types of markets. At a more practical level, look at IFCI charts with BB (9,2). On 12/8, it touch the lower BB. After it has pierced the upper BB multiple times - I could see atleast 8 times - but never come down to the lower BB. Someone just following BB would have sold out at on 19/8 at around 52 but never got the chance to get back into the upmove that has now taken it to 58 or so. Using of BBs only as an indicator is perhaps best only for short duration - 3 to 4 days kind of trade.
Also if you are designing a system around BBs, go and crosscheck that on EOD charts of last year. There would multiple instances of whipsaws - because pierced lower BB and bounced once and gave a buy trigger but then continued the downtrend.
I use BBs on Nifty intraday and they are more effective because you are constantly eyeballing the chart and changing your decisions accordingly. Positional trades on EOD charts should be more relaxing - right now I am loving the triggers that Anant's AFL gives. On EOD charts, i use BBs only for partial profit booking.
Regards,
Enygma.
In positional trades, BBs might give a temporary sell indication but the same stock might never give a buy indication after because it never touches the lower BB but consolidates for a few days and runs up. This is very typical in trending markets. Only in range bound markets, will we get the "clean BB trades".
As prasad correctly points out, look at your favourite list of stocks and how they have behaved in various types of markets. At a more practical level, look at IFCI charts with BB (9,2). On 12/8, it touch the lower BB. After it has pierced the upper BB multiple times - I could see atleast 8 times - but never come down to the lower BB. Someone just following BB would have sold out at on 19/8 at around 52 but never got the chance to get back into the upmove that has now taken it to 58 or so. Using of BBs only as an indicator is perhaps best only for short duration - 3 to 4 days kind of trade.
Also if you are designing a system around BBs, go and crosscheck that on EOD charts of last year. There would multiple instances of whipsaws - because pierced lower BB and bounced once and gave a buy trigger but then continued the downtrend.
I use BBs on Nifty intraday and they are more effective because you are constantly eyeballing the chart and changing your decisions accordingly. Positional trades on EOD charts should be more relaxing - right now I am loving the triggers that Anant's AFL gives. On EOD charts, i use BBs only for partial profit booking.
Regards,
Enygma.
COMPANY OVERVIEW:
Veer Energy was established in 2006.Its objective is to play a major role in responding to the growing problem of climate change attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, Veer Energy wind farms in operation and construction represent a substantial reduction in carbon dioxide emissions annually.
The company is currently active in western region of India with approximately 55 MW in operation. Significant future growth is expected in both core and new markets, supported by a large development pipeline and Veer Energys network of joint development ventures with world class local developers & contractors.
PRODUCT MIX:
PRODUCT SALES(In crore)
%of Total
1.Infrastructure Equipments
Rs12.14 crore
58.77%
2.Land
Rs4.41 crore
21.35%
3.Wind Turbine Generator
Rs2.6 crore
12.58%
4.Other Charges
Rs0.78 crore
3.76%
5.Steel Tubes
Rs0.67 crore
3.24%
6.Power Generation
Rs0.06 crore
0.27%
KEY Rational FOR INVESTMENT:
1. Veer Energy proposes to develop 200MW Wind Turbine Generator farm in the state of Gujarat.
2. Company major set up is being supplied to Southern Wind farm Ltd (ADAG Group Company).
3. Profit is expected to double in FY10.
4. It is a vertically integrated company.
5. Company is also good takeover candidate.
6. With growing concern over the global warming, the company is expected reap good benefit.
7. Wind farms are emission free energy source, providing clean and sustainable energy.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:
NO.OF SHARES
%OF TOTAL
PROMOTER
1796755
53.47%
INSTITUTION
0
GENERAL PUBLIC
14962845
46.53%
GRAND TOTAL
16759600
100.00%
FINANCIAL:
31/03/07
31/03/08
31/03/09
TOTAL INCOME
8.9
31.17
20.7
EXPENDITURE
-7.79
-27.86
-16.99
PBDITA
1.11
3.31
3.71
DEPRECIATION
-0.01
0
-0.11
PBIT
1.1
3.31
3.6
INTEREST
-0.06
-0.57
-0.56
PBT
1.04
2.74
3.04
TAX
-0.29
-1
-0.93
PAT
0.75
1.74
2.11
Key Highlights:
CAGR IN TOTAL INCOME IS 52.5%.
CAGR IN PBDITA IS 82%.
CAGR IN NET PROFIT IS 68%.
RATIOS:
31/03/07
31/03/08
31/03/09
EPS
0.449102
1.041916
1.263473
PBDITA MARGIN
12.47191
10.61919
17.92271
NPM
8.426966
5.582291
10.19324
INTEREST COVER
18.33333
5.807018
6.428571
Key Highlights:
EPS has shown a robust growth over the period of three years. It has increased at CAGR of 68%.
PBDITA margin has also shown improvement from 12.47% to 17.9%.
NPM increased from 8.4% to 10%.
Interest cover however has declined from 18 to 6.
COMPARISION OF Q1FY2010 WITH Q1FY2009:
Q1FY09
%CHANGE
Q1FY10
TOTAL INCOME
2.75
-51%
1.35
EXPENDITURE
-1.83
-0.88
PBDITA
0.92
-49%
0.47
DEPRECIATION
0
0
PBIT
0.92
0.47
INTEREST
-0.19
-0.09
PBT
0.73
0.38
TAX
0
0
PAT
0.73
-48%
0.38
Key Highlights:
Total Income declined by 51%.
PBDITA moved down by 49%.
Net Profit down by 48%.
VALUATION:
At CMP of Rs22.35 the stock is trading at 10.3X to FY10 EPS. Seeing the robust growth in business we value the company at 15X. The fair value we arrive at is Rs37.5.
Outlook of the company is good. The sector is also seeing robust growth, so company will obviously benefit from it. Working with the name like ADAG adds to the credibility of the company.
CONCLUSION:
Investors with bit of risk appetite can take position on the counter. The risk reward ratio is favorable.
So at last I can say my choice is not bad in any way:clap::clap::clap::clap:
Veer Energy was established in 2006.Its objective is to play a major role in responding to the growing problem of climate change attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, Veer Energy wind farms in operation and construction represent a substantial reduction in carbon dioxide emissions annually.
The company is currently active in western region of India with approximately 55 MW in operation. Significant future growth is expected in both core and new markets, supported by a large development pipeline and Veer Energys network of joint development ventures with world class local developers & contractors.
PRODUCT MIX:
PRODUCT SALES(In crore)
%of Total
1.Infrastructure Equipments
Rs12.14 crore
58.77%
2.Land
Rs4.41 crore
21.35%
3.Wind Turbine Generator
Rs2.6 crore
12.58%
4.Other Charges
Rs0.78 crore
3.76%
5.Steel Tubes
Rs0.67 crore
3.24%
6.Power Generation
Rs0.06 crore
0.27%
KEY Rational FOR INVESTMENT:
1. Veer Energy proposes to develop 200MW Wind Turbine Generator farm in the state of Gujarat.
2. Company major set up is being supplied to Southern Wind farm Ltd (ADAG Group Company).
3. Profit is expected to double in FY10.
4. It is a vertically integrated company.
5. Company is also good takeover candidate.
6. With growing concern over the global warming, the company is expected reap good benefit.
7. Wind farms are emission free energy source, providing clean and sustainable energy.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN:
NO.OF SHARES
%OF TOTAL
PROMOTER
1796755
53.47%
INSTITUTION
0
GENERAL PUBLIC
14962845
46.53%
GRAND TOTAL
16759600
100.00%
FINANCIAL:
31/03/07
31/03/08
31/03/09
TOTAL INCOME
8.9
31.17
20.7
EXPENDITURE
-7.79
-27.86
-16.99
PBDITA
1.11
3.31
3.71
DEPRECIATION
-0.01
0
-0.11
PBIT
1.1
3.31
3.6
INTEREST
-0.06
-0.57
-0.56
PBT
1.04
2.74
3.04
TAX
-0.29
-1
-0.93
PAT
0.75
1.74
2.11
Key Highlights:
CAGR IN TOTAL INCOME IS 52.5%.
CAGR IN PBDITA IS 82%.
CAGR IN NET PROFIT IS 68%.
RATIOS:
31/03/07
31/03/08
31/03/09
EPS
0.449102
1.041916
1.263473
PBDITA MARGIN
12.47191
10.61919
17.92271
NPM
8.426966
5.582291
10.19324
INTEREST COVER
18.33333
5.807018
6.428571
Key Highlights:
EPS has shown a robust growth over the period of three years. It has increased at CAGR of 68%.
PBDITA margin has also shown improvement from 12.47% to 17.9%.
NPM increased from 8.4% to 10%.
Interest cover however has declined from 18 to 6.
COMPARISION OF Q1FY2010 WITH Q1FY2009:
Q1FY09
%CHANGE
Q1FY10
TOTAL INCOME
2.75
-51%
1.35
EXPENDITURE
-1.83
-0.88
PBDITA
0.92
-49%
0.47
DEPRECIATION
0
0
PBIT
0.92
0.47
INTEREST
-0.19
-0.09
PBT
0.73
0.38
TAX
0
0
PAT
0.73
-48%
0.38
Key Highlights:
Total Income declined by 51%.
PBDITA moved down by 49%.
Net Profit down by 48%.
VALUATION:
At CMP of Rs22.35 the stock is trading at 10.3X to FY10 EPS. Seeing the robust growth in business we value the company at 15X. The fair value we arrive at is Rs37.5.
Outlook of the company is good. The sector is also seeing robust growth, so company will obviously benefit from it. Working with the name like ADAG adds to the credibility of the company.
CONCLUSION:
Investors with bit of risk appetite can take position on the counter. The risk reward ratio is favorable.
So at last I can say my choice is not bad in any way:clap::clap::clap::clap:
Hi Dipesh,
I am yet to consider trade-to-deliver ratio, though its on my mind for quit some time. Lets call it TTD ratio for our convenience. But my first-glance reasoning says that the number must be quite range bound and sporadic.
It may seem logical that the TTDR goes up during accumulation and distribution. However, huge variations will easily expose the professional activity and spoil their effort.
I have never used the break-up volume for analysis.
I am yet to consider trade-to-deliver ratio, though its on my mind for quit some time. Lets call it TTD ratio for our convenience. But my first-glance reasoning says that the number must be quite range bound and sporadic.
It may seem logical that the TTDR goes up during accumulation and distribution. However, huge variations will easily expose the professional activity and spoil their effort.
I have never used the break-up volume for analysis.
On second thought:
Delivery volume may form tops during accumulation because trading interest is very low. Trading interest comes mostly when the markup is just beginning. So due to relative increase of trading volume, the ratio may get tilted.
But frankly, these are only my thoughts and I am yet to put anything on charts.
Delivery volume may form tops during accumulation because trading interest is very low. Trading interest comes mostly when the markup is just beginning. So due to relative increase of trading volume, the ratio may get tilted.
But frankly, these are only my thoughts and I am yet to put anything on charts.
- Status
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