The Starving Trader!

[thestarvingtrader]

Re: Live! Trading day

1400 Hrs.
No more positions need be opened now since there is only 1.5 hours of action left. RELINFRA tea-bagged all the longs with a nice drop before heading back up to where it was... thanks! However, because of the earlier exit, this position has broken even and even paid for commissions. But no more


All in all, a flat result on a tricky trading day is preferable to a loss any time! Look for a recap to this post at around 1500hrs. The Starving Trader realized that RELINFRA is actually not a preferable instrument to trade because of its high spread that can go up to 50 paise! More about this later.

1515 Hrs. - RECAP
And here come the sellers! 5760 area it was. Made The Starving Trader quite queasy with all that uncanny buying. Congratulations to Kevin on successfully trading SESAGOA, and actually catching the trade. The Starving Trader got his commissions out of the market today.


Today's Pros:

Caught intra-day trend successfully
Identified potential turning points successfully (to correspond with dominant trend)
Today's Cons:

Poor stock selection. RELINFRA has a huge spread (preferable is within 10 paise) and this probably caused the stop out.
Should have tried a small risk short as IDFC was offering a great consolidation move downwards, given the NIFTY's slow rise up.
And so he lives to fight another day. Right, now it's time to eat... he really is starving!


The Starving Trader

 

[thestarvingtrader]

NIFTY and World Cup Cricket!
Do you think that India's World Cup form is affecting this stock market rally? Given that it hasn't even hinted at slowing at major weekly resistance. Or is this a genuine bull run?

Personally, there are mixed signals and The Starving Trader would like to think that this is indeed the case, mainly because 5876 still hasn't been convincingly broken.
But then again, the 89 day SMA has been convincingly broken! So, again... what do you think.

Keen to find out. You may also vote on The Starving Trader's site Just realized a poll can be started on here. Lets do just that... standby...

 

[linkon7]

It seems a few ticket outside the stadium has be sold for a record 1.5 lakh each. It does mean that all the lucky people who hold the tickets for the finals hold something thats grossly over valued. If everyone wants to encash their ticket for some quick buck they need sufficient buyers at that amount. Its just a typical example of liquidity(money) chasing value and shooting it up the roof.

Same thing happened the last time we did a 1000 point up run. Roughly 28 Billion was needed to take nifty from 5300 to 6350 but 1 billion dollar outflow undid all the good work. Barring a few stocks, most of the stocks are at 4600 nifty equivalent levels now. SO far midcaps are life less and flow has been strictly into liquid counters where they know they can get exit. Most of the money invested on non nifty stocks in the last bull run are down 50% or more. There is no liquidity in those counters to absorb that kind of outflow and has left a very sour taste on those FII's mouth.

The net inflow in the last 2 week has exceeded the outflow in the whole year to date. Mind boggling amount has been pumped into the nifty index constituents and if the flow continues at this rate then we might see 6600 on nifty also by the end of this month. The concerns that invited the correction hasnt really gone anywhere. Crude is higher than before. Almost all fundamental reasons are all intact.

Personally, i dont care which direction nifty moves as long as it moves. Up or down is only relevant for the sake of discussion,...!

 

[coolharsh20]

i hope nifty will crash from now on.... i m pretty unsure tht market might see the level which it is not meant for...

 

[thestarvingtrader]

It seems a few ticket outside the stadium has be sold for a record 1.5 lakh each. It does mean that all the lucky people who hold the tickets for the finals hold something thats grossly over valued. If everyone wants to encash their ticket for some quick buck they need sufficient buyers at that amount. Its just a typical example of liquidity(money) chasing value and shooting it up the roof.

Same thing happened the last time we did a 1000 point up run. Roughly 28 Billion was needed to take nifty from 5300 to 6350 but 1 billion dollar outflow undid all the good work. Barring a few stocks, most of the stocks are at 4600 nifty equivalent levels now. SO far midcaps are life less and flow has been strictly into liquid counters where they know they can get exit. Most of the money invested on non nifty stocks in the last bull run are down 50% or more. There is no liquidity in those counters to absorb that kind of outflow and has left a very sour taste on those FII's mouth.

The net inflow in the last 2 week has exceeded the outflow in the whole year to date. Mind boggling amount has been pumped into the nifty index constituents and if the flow continues at this rate then we might see 6600 on nifty also by the end of this month. The concerns that invited the correction hasnt really gone anywhere. Crude is higher than before. Almost all fundamental reasons are all intact.

Personally, i dont care which direction nifty moves as long as it moves. Up or down is only relevant for the sake of discussion,...!

True - As long as it moves!! So, in your opinion, with the fundamentals still bearish, but with all the money being pumped (thanks for the stats), which direction is the greater probability?

 

[MurAtt]

As long as there is even 1 bear (person looking to short) from the RETAIL ... the mkts will not move down

The day that person says .. enuf ... I was wrong and now it will move up, cuts his shorts, goes long ...

kaboooooooooooommmmmmmmm




of course .. this is just market psychology at a very low level BUT if u see in the past .. it works ... and it has no statistics as such and the RETAIL is a vast area which cannot be defined and that 1 person short is also a vast figure

 

[thestarvingtrader]

As long as there is even 1 bear (person looking to short) from the RETAIL ... the mkts will not move down

The day that person says .. enuf ... I was wrong and now it will move up, cuts his shorts, goes long ...

kaboooooooooooommmmmmmmm




of course .. this is just market psychology at a very low level BUT if u see in the past .. it works ... and it has no statistics as such and the RETAIL is a vast area which cannot be defined and that 1 person short is also a vast figure

LOL - So true!

 

[thestarvingtrader]

CONGRATULATIONS TO US ALL and to the INDIAN CRICKET TEAM (and Gary Kirsten) for an awesome performance!

The Starving Trader, contrary to the market rally, actually had a contrarian swing trade in LT this week that is shown in the "Trade of the Week" segment. He also had a Long entry in Silver (MCX) and has already dumped half the position at 1:2. He thinks Silver still has room to go higher and will share why in the coming days.

Interesting about the ongoing poll results so far:

• Traderji: Completely mixed sentiment about market direction!
• The Starving Trader's site: Almost everyone believes it is sucker's rally because of cricket euphoria!
• The Starving Trader's Poll on Facebook Page: Similar result as on the site.

It's still not too late to vote either on TraderJi, TST site, or TST FB. It is interesting to see the diversity of sentiment about cricket euphoria and the market. This poll closes on Tuesday, so vote more!

The Starving Trader

 

[comm4300]

FII's move the market. they are least bothered by what the Indian cricket team does. please don't tell me that retail has become powerful enough to move market for the last 8 sessions !?

it seems 'the starving trader' fell for the media frenzy and related it to his field too....

end of the day....bhav bhagwan chee....and price will tell where it goes if you just listen to it than marry it off to cricket/football or wrestling....

sorry, since i don't have my own blog...i find my 'bloggin' keeda release here...he he he....

cheers mate.

 

[thestarvingtrader]

The Starving Trader posted a misleading NIFTY Daily chart on the site because of inconsistencies between the Trade Tiger versions!! There is another bearish indicator - an inside day - that he missed out on as a result. His anticipation of a downward close for the week still stands. Update: The Daily chart image has been updated now

Also, here are the Weekly and MOnthly NIFTY scribblings that are also posted on the site

Also, also, Voting on the poll above closes tomorrow! Vote, vote, vote...