Trading Strategies Using Technical Analysis

[SwingKing]

Hi Raunak,

Interested to know on what timeframe u feel that we are bullish..
Daily charts definitely a downtrend..
Weekly charts.. trend in question..

Please share your views.

Regards
Raj

Raj,

There is more to Investing and Trading than Charts.

Now, power of charts is extremely "Limited" and "Unlimited". The trick is to recognize which dominates when. Fundamentally we remain as strong as ever. We are just correcting based on Technicals. Hence, what we see on charts is the same.

When I talk about being Bullish, I mean my view on our Country is extremely Bullish. Hence, despite of being Technically weak, I remain Fundamentally Bullish. In much simpler terms, let me explain this through a simple decision making system.

Technically - Weak
Fundamentally - Strong
Action - Use Technical Dips to buy

Technically - Strong
Fundamentally - Weak
Action - Use Technical Rallies to Exit

Tc

 

[spacenoxx]

Hi spacenoxx

Sorry to correct you clearly in one point you posted, as I agree with most of the other points :

Your advice : ""and more or less forget about it. No M2M headaches"" is not really a clever and good advice.

Even if you have any stock in your longtime portfolio, it is a must to check this shares from time to time. Once in one or two weeks is a must do ! If you are the owner of a company, you would have a manager there which has your full trust, would you just leave this company and may say hello once in a year because you forgot about it and you lazy about M2M ?

Your portfolio is your company !!

It is even advisable to have a stop loss on those long term stocks. In todays time, even big companies can get in trouble and can lose a lot in certain days. Having also a stop loss on this shares, will protect you better.

DanPickUp

Danpickup,

Please let me take this oppurtunity to correct you as well I categorically said "more or less forget about it" knowing fully well what I wanted to say. If I meant "forget about it" I would have said so and not used "more or less". By using more or less I implied that the investment doesnt need to be babysat but one should employ a little caution if the stock/investment gets affected adversely.

It was a generalisd statement, so one should you his own judgement.

Like buying gold, over a period of 5-10 years will most probably give you +ve returns. You dont worry yourself to death with daily or weekly fluctuations. If you are a smart guy you would probably look at commodity charts and buy and sell gold and make handsome profits as a trader. That doesnt mean the one who stayed invested in it for a long time is going to make losses. Only his profits would be less than yours but he surely will have some profits.

Most importantly if one kept on holding an "investment" even if it was in deep red just because a certain spacenoxx // Chaitanya said so on an internet forum, then his head needs to be examined :rofl:

--Chaitanya

 

[DanPickUp]

Danpickup,

Please let me take this oppurtunity to correct you as well I categorically said "more or less forget about it" knowing fully well what I wanted to say. If I meant "forget about it" I would have said so and not used "more or less". By using more or less I implied that the investment doesnt need to be babysat but one should employ a little caution if the stock/investment gets affected adversely.

It was a generalisd statement, so one should you his own judgement.

Like buying gold, over a period of 5-10 years will most probably give you +ve returns. You dont worry yourself to death with daily or weekly fluctuations. If you are a smart guy you would probably look at commodity charts and buy and sell gold and make handsome profits as a trader. That doesnt mean the one who stayed invested in it for a long time is going to make losses. Only his profits would be less than yours but he surely will have some profits.

Most importantly if one kept on holding an "investment" even if it was in deep red just because a certain spacenoxx // Chaitanya said so on an internet forum, then his head needs to be examined :rofl:

--Chaitanya

Hi Chaitanya

Thanks for you clarification. Here some deeper knowledge to the examination thoughts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillotine

Have a nice weekend :lol:

DanPickUp

 

[spacenoxx]

Hi Chaitanya

Thanks for you clarification. Here some deeper knowledge to the examination thoughts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillotine

Have a nice weekend :lol:

DanPickUp

Good one :lol: but I dont think one needs to be examined in 'that' fashion just because he lost money in the market. There is more to life than making money in stock market.

Have a nice weekend you too :thumb:

 

[EagleOne]

Corrections are like Markets offering you Apples at the cost of Lemons.
One has to be aware of when Apples are offered and when Lemons are. With a bit of Risk, with a bit of Conviction and with a bit of Luck, Take it !!

As Bullish as ever.

Enjoy the Weekend.

Tc

Raunak ji, where I live, apples are actually cheaper than lemons sometimes during the picking season!

But jokes apart. I think you have a point there. My uncle made exactly one crore between Jan 2009 - a few months back. How? Just as you said: he had his wits about to know the difference between apples and lemons. His son didn't listen to his papa, therefore, he's still 40 lakhs down.

 

[EagleOne]

Raunak ji, the following I also posted in the Canteen thread. If you feel it is inappropriate, please feel free to delete either of them as per your judgement

Guys, I just spent some time surfing the net. Every known TV or other stock pundit is furnishing reasons behind the market fall. Smart money and all that bullsh**! Discussions are going on, opnions are abound where will it stop.

That means, they are like that famous story's blinds trying to figure out the shape of an elephant.

They have no idea. Period.

They all are trying to ignore this bitter truth: Market seems to have breached all respectable supports. Now it is simple physics, it has gathered momentum and has reached its terminal velocity and falling freely. In layman terms: it is on its own now. Where will it hit, when, and how, is beyond the charts dealing with a few variables. So, all bets should be off; all long positions squared off. If you are sentimental about your holdings, and can be as nimble as shark, time to bite the bear by short selling your holdings.

But I wouldn't recommend this. The exercise is mentally draining.

So make the slate clean, and take a break. When it all gets settled - which eventually would - you can always enter market again. Your loss would be brokerage and the MTM's notional loss turning into actual loss - same thing to your ledger. And, of course, a hurt ego.

I am neither being optimist nor pessimist. This is what I think, and share with you. You all are traders, you have to make your own decisions - ie, you don't have to follow any of the above.

Good luck all.

And Good Night

 

[BIJU ABRAHAM]

Sure. No problem.

Just remind me on Friday if you can.

Tc

Sirjee,
Reminder call

 

[SwingKing]

Everyone in life is entitled to an opinion. Hence, I don't know who is right or wrong at the moment. I am also not here to debate where the markets might end up in coming days. Hence whatever opinion I have, it should not be perceived as contention to other's views on the same.

I am not a veteran in the markets and neither have I ever worked for any company in any capacity whatsoever. I might not be as smart as most of the analyst around and might also not be as visionary as most of the guys behind corporate desk. But, I am a highly Educated, hard working professional who knows how to read the Tape and the Annual reports with some accuracy. Hence, if you guys trust what I write, then please pay attention to what I am going to write below.

1. We have not entered a Bear market as of 14th January 10.56 PM

Anyone who is indicating that a Bear market/Bear phase has begun has absolutely no idea about how to interpret technicals and fundamentals. If anyone has this opinion, ask him to show it fundamentally and technically. Unless that's done, stop listening to anyone's opinion. Unfortunately, like some of the analysts, I don't have the ability to predict the future. Hence whatever information I am giving is based on the present.

2. Time to liquidate as markets might fall

Correction has no correlation with market liquidation. This is a myth. Obviously one has to distinguish between correction and bear market and at this stage that conclusion cannot be drawn. Hence, if the conclusion cannot be drawn, then the liquidation aspect of portfolio should not be considered.

3. Inflation is high and Economy is overheating

Can anyone tell me the "Economic progress" of our country during the previous Bull market? Or can anyone tell me the "Economic Progress" of a typical Bull market in any country? Or can anyone tell me how "U.S. Economy progressed" through 1960 - 2000? What were the typical Economic parameters during US Bull run, Asian Bull run and European Bull run? If none of you know this, then you have nothing to fear about what is going on right now. The reason is simple, you are "over thinking" about these parameters just because they are being constantly repeated. The truth is, the current Economic scenario is absolutely "Normal". The current Economic data is completely fine. Just be patient.

At this stage, all I can say is that everyone is being made to think for the short term. Don't be fooled by what is being said. Have conviction in our country, our growth and our people. India is going to grow leaps and bounds in coming decades and make sure to be a part of it. When I entered the stock market, I told myself, that "My growth is equivalent to my countries growth and if my country is going to fail, then I am ready to fail with it. But, I will never ever for a single day doubt the potential of my country in any form. Be it on a correction or after a bearish phase"

As of 11.22 P.m I still stand by it ....

Dream big and be resolute. Such days, such weeks and such months are nothing in front of what lies ahead.

With Respect.

Tc

 

[DanPickUp]

Hi Raunak SK

I do not understand, why you expose your self so much about what your market outlook is. When reading your past post, you made to every one clear, what you do. So what ? I am clear about your knowledge and all the friends in this thread are. So no worries about that.

Do not take this to personal but I even do not understand, why you always tell you are a bullish mental trader

Is it not like this, that we as traders have to be flexible for long and short trading. I never thought of my self that I am this or that. If I have to go short, I go and if I have to go long, I go. I never called my self a bullish or bearish trader and I never hear that from other traders so extreme like you always tell about your self.

There is no need for that. as you are any way a swing trader and will stay as that in the future

Wish you a nice weekend. By the way : This weekend we have one of the most spectacular and dangerous ski race which exist here in my mountains :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sx0i5NSXBUc&feature=related

For those race, you not can use fear, as you some times have a speed of more than 120 km per hour just on skies. And watch the jumps you would have to make. WOW. Just like Nifty today :lol:

DanPickUp

 

[SwingKing]

Hi Raunak SK

I do not understand, why you expose your self so much about what your market outlook is. When reading your past post, you made to every one clear, what you do. So what ? I am clear about your knowledge and all the friends in this thread are. So no worries about that.

Do not take this to personal but I even do not understand, why you always tell you are a bullish mental trader

Is it not like this, that we as traders have to be flexible for long and short trading. I never thought of my self that I am this or that. If I have to go short, I go and if I have to go long, I go. I never called my self a bullish or bearish trader and I never hear that from other traders so extreme like you always tell about your self.

There is no need for that. as you are any way a swing trader and will stay as that in the future

Wish you a nice weekend. By the way : This weekend we have one of the most spectacular and dangerous ski race which exist here in my mountains :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sx0i5NSXBUc&feature=related

For those race, you not can use fear, as you some times have a speed of more than 120 km per hour just on skies. And watch the jumps you would have to make. WOW. Just like Nifty today :lol:

DanPickUp

Dan,

I never take anything personally. So please don't worry about that my friend

There is a reason why I am open so much. Through out the forum, when I read how many people lose money, it hurts me a bit. It hurts me because in this phase, FII's are making so much money and most of my countrymen aren't. If I can tell them what the right direction is, what's the harm in that?

I know everyone knows about my knowledge. But if that knowledge is not useful for anyone to save/make money, then what's the use of writing here? This is precisely why I am always opening up my mind here. I am a flexible trader, but I am always a Bullish Investor. For the next many years I will continue to be a Bullish "Biased" Investor because of many reasons I cannot even explain in words.

I am not asking anyone to buy now. But when the right time comes, I will definitely say to do so. I think I wrote sometime back that I belong to the Paul Tudor Jones School of thinking and I think the most important thing according to him for any trader/investor is to "know" the long term price direction of the market he trades/invests in. Hence this is what I am highlighting here. That is, "The Long Term, Price direction of India".

Tc