Trading Strategies Using Technical Analysis

[DanPickUp]

Dan,

I never take anything personally. So please don't worry about that my friend

There is a reason why I am open so much. Through out the forum, when I read how many people lose money, it hurts me a bit. It hurts me because in this phase, FII's are making so much money and most of my countrymen aren't. If I can tell them what the right direction is, what's the harm in that?

I know everyone knows about my knowledge. But if that knowledge is not useful for anyone to save/make money, then what's the use of writing here? This is precisely why I am always opening up my mind here. I am a flexible trader, but I am always a Bullish Investor. For the next many years I will continue to be a Bullish "Biased" Investor because of many reasons I cannot even explain in words.

I am not asking anyone to buy now. But when the right time comes, I will definitely say to do so. I think I wrote sometime back that I belong to the Paul Tudor Jones School of thinking and I think the most important thing according to him for any trader/investor is to "know" the long term price direction of the market he trades/invests in. Hence this is what I am highlighting here. That is, "The Long Term, Price direction of India".

Tc

Hi Raunak SK

Thanks for your answer. Got many of your points. You say : "" If I can tell them what the right direction is, what's the harm in that? ""

There is no right direction, as far as my experience counts. And that is the problem for the once witch lose money. You are enough experienced to go short and long. I know hedge fund manager witch only learned, how to go long ! Imagine ; they only learned how to go long and do not know, how to properly short the market :lol: and this as hedge fund managers.

Your knowledge and my is far better than the knowledge of this clowns. Your writing is as authentically like my writing is, even I am a little bit more wild some times . And here is the point. People do not make money with that you are mostly bullish in your mind. It is the way you are able to talk with your fellow people about certain market situations and how to handle them. That is the point I feel and see. I may wrong about that, but this is the momentum security you give to the traders as far as I recognize it. Very strong skill and for this and other qualities you have all my respect and friendship.

I not can much participate about that. Even then, only reading and some times opening some of my knowledge in your thread, is what I can give and how I participate in your thread and get some times new ideas. But let me leave that and come back to your post.

I may see some stuff a little bit different as you and this those no harm to any body. When it comes to trading, my view is mostly concentrated on time frames of a day or two or three or three or six months. Longer time frames for trading are out of my mind. If it comes to investing, it is done only in a very old fashioned and classical way : Real estate in the place I live, Gold and Platin instead of paper money, Swiss frank bonds and China Index Certificates. This is 80 % of a portfolio and the rest is in exotic and new technology papers. I do not have any long term price direction in my mind. Every thing is changeable when ever needed. My mentor also was called Paul, but not Tudor Jones. I not can say the name here, as I not have the permission to do so. I only can say Paul G.G. Any way, nice to have a Saturday morning chat with you and I wish, that you feel happy as moderator now.

Wow, only a few hours left to the ski race. If you are born here and grow up with this event, this is some thing special. Take care my friend.

DanPickUp

 

[rrmhatre72]

Hi Raunak SK

I do not understand, why you expose your self so much about what your market outlook is. When reading your past post, you made to every one clear, what you do. So what ? I am clear about your knowledge and all the friends in this thread are. So no worries about that.

Do not take this to personal but I even do not understand, why you always tell you are a bullish mental trader

Is it not like this, that we as traders have to be flexible for long and short trading. I never thought of my self that I am this or that. If I have to go short, I go and if I have to go long, I go. I never called my self a bullish or bearish trader and I never hear that from other traders so extreme like you always tell about your self.

There is no need for that. as you are any way a swing trader and will stay as that in the future

DanPickUp

Hi Dan,

I am reading Raunak's views since ~8months. I do not think he is bullish always. Pls refer his older views (Before NIFTY crossing 5500) He was bearish & he was holding to it till market cross 5500. There were healthy debates with some bullish members at that time.
Around 5500 he turned bullish. One morning there was post from him indicating he had deep analysis & discussion with his team which gives indication to him that market going to turn out to be bullish.
Frankly I was surprise by seeing that post. how can he turn from bearish to bullish in one day.... but he was proved right as Nifty made high of ~6300.
Now still he is maintaining bullish view.....
He definitely have some system where he can cut off one view & turn into another view.
& I think current market is not still showing cut off point on his system

 

[rrmhatre72]

Raj,

There is more to Investing and Trading than Charts.

Now, power of charts is extremely "Limited" and "Unlimited". The trick is to recognize which dominates when. Fundamentally we remain as strong as ever. We are just correcting based on Technicals. Hence, what we see on charts is the same.

When I talk about being Bullish, I mean my view on our Country is extremely Bullish. Hence, despite of being Technically weak, I remain Fundamentally Bullish. In much simpler terms, let me explain this through a simple decision making system.

Technically - Weak
Fundamentally - Strong
Action - Use Technical Dips to buy

Technically - Strong
Fundamentally - Weak
Action - Use Technical Rallies to Exit

Tc

Hi Raunak,

One of the greatest thing I learn from you is never average falling trade. I had habit of doing that & that was really painful most of time...

But I am getting bit confused with this logic.
Technically - Weak
Fundamentally - Strong
Action - Use Technical Dips to buy

If market is technically weak then it is going to fall further. If we keep on buying on every dip then aren't we averaging falling trade in this case?

Appreciate your inputs on same.

 

[rrmhatre72]

Hi Raunak, ( I am comfortable with your name only)

WIPRO closed @453 today.
You had indicated below 460, this will be good to short..
Appreciate if you can post graph of same.
Also guide how have you analyzed & decided 460level to short?

Till now I was monitoring it against 315 & observed that it was unable to cross 15EMA(@475). It use to go upto 473 & move down from there.

315 system has whipsaw sometimes. Hence I want to crosscheck 315 signals with some other system. If you can explain your logic with graph then it will be great help.

Hi Raunak,

I hope you will find some time during this weekend on this.

 

[SwingKing]

Hi Raunak,

One of the greatest thing I learn from you is never average falling trade. I had habit of doing that & that was really painful most of time...

But I am getting bit confused with this logic.
Technically - Weak
Fundamentally - Strong
Action - Use Technical Dips to buy

If market is technically weak then it is going to fall further. If we keep on buying on every dip then aren't we averaging falling trade in this case?

Appreciate your inputs on same.

Rahul,

Thanks you so much for bringing this up.

Let me rephrase this.

These things apply when I have no Investment in any stock.

So lets say, I am interested in something like ABC fundamentally and I don't own it currently. On technical dips I will start buying it with SL. If SL is hit, I will exit it. But will never average it on the way down. If its still attractive, I again try and pick up some quantities in it (with SL) and the process continues.

Hope you got it now.

Tc

 

[SwingKing]

Hi Raunak,

I hope you will find some time during this weekend on this.

Definitely Rahul.

Tc

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Raj,

There is more to Investing and Trading than Charts.

Now, power of charts is extremely "Limited" and "Unlimited". The trick is to recognize which dominates when. Fundamentally we remain as strong as ever. We are just correcting based on Technicals. Hence, what we see on charts is the same.

When I talk about being Bullish, I mean my view on our Country is extremely Bullish. Hence, despite of being Technically weak, I remain Fundamentally Bullish. In much simpler terms, let me explain this through a simple decision making system.

Technically - Weak
Fundamentally - Strong
Action - Use Technical Dips to buy

Technically - Strong
Fundamentally - Weak
Action - Use Technical Rallies to Exit

Tc

Raunak,

Thanks for the detailed explanation. I just want to know whether you considered fundamentals as a factor. I got your point of view now.

Regards
Raj

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Hi spacenoxx

It is even advisable to have a stop loss on those long term stocks. In todays time, even big companies can get in trouble and can lose a lot in certain days. Having also a stop loss on this shares, will protect you better.

DanPickUp

Completely agree with you.

Regards
Raj

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Danpickup,

Like buying gold, over a period of 5-10 years will most probably give you +ve returns. You dont worry yourself to death with daily or weekly fluctuations. If you are a smart guy you would probably look at commodity charts and buy and sell gold and make handsome profits as a trader. That doesnt mean the one who stayed invested in it for a long time is going to make losses. Only his profits would be less than yours but he surely will have some profits.

-Chaitanya

You may be right but I still dont believe in it 100%.. The chances are high but still what IF statement..

Regards
Raj

 

[spacenoxx]

Hi Raunak SK

I do not understand, why you expose your self so much about what your market outlook is. When reading your past post, you made to every one clear, what you do. So what ? I am clear about your knowledge and all the friends in this thread are. So no worries about that.

Do not take this to personal but I even do not understand, why you always tell you are a bullish mental trader

Is it not like this, that we as traders have to be flexible for long and short trading. I never thought of my self that I am this or that. If I have to go short, I go and if I have to go long, I go. I never called my self a bullish or bearish trader and I never hear that from other traders so extreme like you always tell about your self.

There is no need for that. as you are any way a swing trader and will stay as that in the future

Wish you a nice weekend. By the way : This weekend we have one of the most spectacular and dangerous ski race which exist here in my mountains :

For those race, you not can use fear, as you some times have a speed of more than 120 km per hour just on skies. And watch the jumps you would have to make. WOW. Just like Nifty today :lol:

DanPickUp

DanPickUp,

Not trying to pick up an argument here but how is Raunakji's expression of his bullish feeling any different from taking LONG or SHORT position in any stock. Just by going LONG or SHORT in a security at some point in time doesnt necessarily mean your current position/feeling is set in stone (forever). It just means that for the current time frame you are LONG or SHORT in that security; nothing more nothing less. At a later date/time if the situation demands it you will probably take an oppisite stand for the same security. Thats what a traders attitude should be as you rightly pointed out in your post.


As long as Raunakji doesn't make a statement like "I will be LONG in NIFTY till the day I die" there is nothing to argue about :lol:

--Chaitanya