Trading with Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)

[nimish_rulz]

Try to watch and understand the accumulation and distribution process in real world....they average their price as they go on.....and finally hold to it....

accumulation is done by market makers when they want to purchase shares...they have heavy apital to do so...in order the market works fair they also need to play by the rules of demand supply....

a typical example of accumulation wll be, a market maker sells his 10 lac worth of shares and bring the price down....market being working the herd way starts selling their own shares...at the next bottom he purchases the shares worth 1 crore....and the same process goes on...their are syndicates sitting and buying among themselves just to create a shake out and mark pries lower. they loose nothing but average their prices at lower levels...

simmilar happens when they have to sell their shares...they will buy 10 lac worth of shares at higher level and sell at top a crore worth of shares......


they average the price as they have large money flow with them

Yeah and they were averaging when the market was 21000 and when it reached 8000 right?
Guys Mutual Fund have the least amount of cash available currently. Even the most cash ones have only 12% left. Add to that the pressure of Mutual Funds being sold by clients to get the money back when the markets go down. It would be a suicide there is clear indication if you see DII FII activity that they sold quite a lot of their holdings when market was hovering around 5200-5300 zone. Check and plot the graph and you will see suddenly the liquidity disappeared and hence came this shock which goes according to VSA and all this time news were good and everyone was cheering for a bull run including me. I believe the down phase maybe over with all the bad news coming out so rapidly and now the steam of bad news is suddenly going down and last one would be RBI policy.

 

[rajputz]

5200-5300 distribution

below 4900 accumulation

 

[rajputz]

Sold at 4805, SL 4810

 

[bunny]

They might sell in cash and buy futures. But you guys are saying that the data we get on NSE website is fake? Right? If that is the case do you agree that the data we get on our charting software is correct? Man I agree that there is accumulation coming at lower levels buy only by Mutual Funds. The sell can mean shorting too they might be holding on their longs. Please don't ignore the data we have been saying that accumulation is going on since 5200 levels now nifty is 4800. 400 points of shake out is massive they also have to take into account the risks.

Don't you think FII/DII would have objected if their activity was so openly disclosed on any website? Imagine that you are some big shot FII, and the NSE is telling everyone that "He is selling". Won't you have a problem with this? Will you want anybody to spoil your selling? Anything that we can get in "readymade" form is hardly useful to us.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Don't you think FII/DII would have objected if their activity was so openly disclosed on any website? Imagine that you are some big shot FII, and the NSE is telling everyone that "He is selling". Won't you have a problem with this? Will you want anybody to spoil your selling? Anything that we can get in "readymade" form is hardly useful to us.

Well if you think that is the case then fair enough. Do you see immediate bottom or what according to you is the downside in this downturn? Can u forsee that with your accumulation model we have been saying accumulation is going on since 5200 levels. The thing is while it maybe true that accumulation is going on I m not able to see what the immediate bottom is.

 

[rajputz]

i removed the stoploss....
booked profit at 4775

 

[nimish_rulz]

i removed the stoploss....
booked profit at 4875

When did market reach 4875 today?

 

[rajputz]

sorry 4775

 

[nimish_rulz]

sorry 4775

Dude market has bottomed out today. Its gonna go up from here on. We will decouple from global markets.

 

[bunny]

Yeah and they were averaging when the market was 21000 and when it reached 8000 right?
Guys Mutual Fund have the least amount of cash available currently. Even the most cash ones have only 12% left. Add to that the pressure of Mutual Funds being sold by clients to get the money back when the markets go down. It would be a suicide there is clear indication if you see DII FII activity that they sold quite a lot of their holdings when market was hovering around 5200-5300 zone. Check and plot the graph and you will see suddenly the liquidity disappeared and hence came this shock which goes according to VSA and all this time news were good and everyone was cheering for a bull run including me. I believe the down phase maybe over with all the bad news coming out so rapidly and now the steam of bad news is suddenly going down and last one would be RBI policy.

F&O data has been suggesting some clues. However, I am unable to read it because of the expiry, as volumes always swell up during expiry. If I were to ignore the expiry thing, huge volumes have built up in F&O.

On one of the TA groups, one person also pointed that the OI has ballooned(usually, OI falls as expiry approaches).

Today may be our bottom, but I don't want to say this again and again everyday. I think last 3 or 4 days I have feeling of bottom, but it does not happen.

I am also observing the live F&O volume data, but its only 2.5 hrs that the market has started, and will prefer to wait till the end.