Hello All,
First and foremost, I have to thank Saint sir for developing this wonderful method. According to me sharing this method on public forums to educate people is even greater than developing the method itself. With my little experience in life[I am just 25
] I am yet to see a person who is so selfless, kudos sir. I would also like to thank ST da, Kapil, and a lot of people from TJ and TraderSaint for having answered soooooo many of my questions .
What am I referring here?
I have been paper trading Nifty Futures using the Intraday Mini Flow method. In this method we use the 30min TF charts. After last Friday's trade [March 20 2009], I was not happy with the way I could identify the reversals [It was not a trade reversal but infact the Price reversed, an early entry to such reversals is what i am referring here]. Almost throughout the entire week of March 16th - 20th, there were many days where Nifty Futures price reversed [After having gone high at one point it reversed and formed new lows/ after having gone low at one point it reversed and formed new highs]. Except for Friday on all other days, Nifty Futures reversed after having given considerable profits. close to 20-25 points.
On Friday, we could have used the breakdown/out failure or the move1/2 concepts and could have entered trades, a lot of fellow members did the same and made good profits. However, if one had stuck to the rules there could be profit of only 8-10 points or could have ended in losses. Having said this, I am in no way underestimating the concepts. All my concern is about having to identify this reversal and then confirm the reversal inline with the already existing concepts.
So, while trying to findout some way of identifying this reversal, I experimented with the "Exponential Averages" [EA]. After a lot of trial and error I ended with two EA's. I drew two curves one with EA as "2" and another curve with EA as "5". Now the interesting part was that "whenever/wherever there is a cross-over in the 30min TF of these two curves, on most occasions it refers to the reversal point". Please find the 30 min TF chart for friday attached below:
The cross-over of the WhiteCurve[EA 2] and BlueCurve[EA 5] at the point 2779.54 approximately would have been a good entry.
Another thing I would like to mention is that, the 15min TF can/should also be used to identify and confirm a Reversal. In case of a Reversal, the 15min TF would first show it, however if it is not shown in the 30min TF, then it does not form a reversal point. Please find the 15min TF chart for friday attached below:
As you can see there are more cross-overs identified in 15min TF shown by "Arrow" compared to the 30min TF. It is the 15min TF which initiates the cross-overs, but it should be confirmed with 30min TF as well, else there is likely to be no reversals. However, when we see the reversal in the 30min TF at 2.00 PM Bar, it is confirmed in the 15min TF as well. When I backtested this behaviour for the entire week, the results were positive. I believe we can use this additional method to identify reversals.
Also, please note that I am very new to Trading and I am still a student eager to learn a lot of things. I would want the seniors to comment on this and validate the same.
Regards,
-Sri
First and foremost, I have to thank Saint sir for developing this wonderful method. According to me sharing this method on public forums to educate people is even greater than developing the method itself. With my little experience in life[I am just 25
] I am yet to see a person who is so selfless, kudos sir. I would also like to thank ST da, Kapil, and a lot of people from TJ and TraderSaint for having answered soooooo many of my questions . What am I referring here?
I have been paper trading Nifty Futures using the Intraday Mini Flow method. In this method we use the 30min TF charts. After last Friday's trade [March 20 2009], I was not happy with the way I could identify the reversals [It was not a trade reversal but infact the Price reversed, an early entry to such reversals is what i am referring here]. Almost throughout the entire week of March 16th - 20th, there were many days where Nifty Futures price reversed [After having gone high at one point it reversed and formed new lows/ after having gone low at one point it reversed and formed new highs]. Except for Friday on all other days, Nifty Futures reversed after having given considerable profits. close to 20-25 points.
On Friday, we could have used the breakdown/out failure or the move1/2 concepts and could have entered trades, a lot of fellow members did the same and made good profits. However, if one had stuck to the rules there could be profit of only 8-10 points or could have ended in losses. Having said this, I am in no way underestimating the concepts. All my concern is about having to identify this reversal and then confirm the reversal inline with the already existing concepts.
So, while trying to findout some way of identifying this reversal, I experimented with the "Exponential Averages" [EA]. After a lot of trial and error I ended with two EA's. I drew two curves one with EA as "2" and another curve with EA as "5". Now the interesting part was that "whenever/wherever there is a cross-over in the 30min TF of these two curves, on most occasions it refers to the reversal point". Please find the 30 min TF chart for friday attached below:
The cross-over of the WhiteCurve[EA 2] and BlueCurve[EA 5] at the point 2779.54 approximately would have been a good entry.
Another thing I would like to mention is that, the 15min TF can/should also be used to identify and confirm a Reversal. In case of a Reversal, the 15min TF would first show it, however if it is not shown in the 30min TF, then it does not form a reversal point. Please find the 15min TF chart for friday attached below:
As you can see there are more cross-overs identified in 15min TF shown by "Arrow" compared to the 30min TF. It is the 15min TF which initiates the cross-overs, but it should be confirmed with 30min TF as well, else there is likely to be no reversals. However, when we see the reversal in the 30min TF at 2.00 PM Bar, it is confirmed in the 15min TF as well. When I backtested this behaviour for the entire week, the results were positive. I believe we can use this additional method to identify reversals.
Also, please note that I am very new to Trading and I am still a student eager to learn a lot of things. I would want the seniors to comment on this and validate the same.
Regards,
-Sri
