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[amitt29]

Hi Sanjay,
First of all let me delve on something that is misunderstood by most ppl abt Elliott Wave.
Its a very good forecasting tool,but most of the analysts that use it let their emotions flow when they use it, also they start looking for absolutes(which shud not be the case at all).It is akin to knowing that it will rain and the minimum and maximum extent of rain.
The count part of Elliott is pretty subjective.
As I see it we seem to be in wave B(which has become pretty complex)Apart from my count which suggests it,the factors influencing this count is
1)Low volumes,implying that there is no selling or low selling,thats y prices are moving up,a small pressure wud trip it.
2)F2's are very marginal buyers this month(infact in futures very marginal),coupled with a stronger rupee(as i see it in the coming days)
3)Fundamentals of our economy have weakened a bit,inflation,interest rates and GDP(though not worryingly).I still see an exponential growth in the coming years.Infact as a leading economy.
4)The price action in this rally has become laboured or has been laboured.Unlike the behaviour of impulses which are clean cut.

I dont go with 1-2,1-2 count of anybody because its not Elliott Wave,nor is the extracting triangle of Vivek Patil because he doesnt give the count and thats not Elliott too.
Hope this helps
Warm regards
Amit.

 

[amitt29]

The levels to watch from here wud be 3417-3430-3441.

Well, all along the day it just held its head high near 3430 and just below 3441And making an intraday low at 3417.The Gapup providing support.
The immediate levels to watch wud be 3433-3441-3445-3450-3458-3463.
The downside to hold wud be 3421-3415-3406-3396.If it comes around that.

Theres a huge resistance coming up around 3482 levels.SO it wud need to consolidate around these levels.
Best to your Day.
Amit

 

[amitt29]

The immediate levels to watch wud be 3433-3441-3445-3450-3458-3463.
The downside to hold wud be 3421-3415-3406-3396.If it comes around that.
Theres a huge resistance coming up around 3482 levels.So it wud need to consolidate around these levels.
Best to your Day.
Amit

Well 3406 held the fall and 3441 was the max for the day.What about the others then, they are left to be played around with. , another day perhaps.
The levels given above still hold for another day.Though i am raising the bar for the downside play between 3430-3420-3407.The upside remain same as above.
Tomorrow being expiry it will get interesting for new positions,or the last rollovers,its my belief that the big positions have been rolled over last week(when the market was near 3300).
Regards
Amit
Amit

 

[amitt29]

According to me a decisive turning point day cud be 31 aug and 4th September for this rally.

Well,I raised the bar yesterday and funnily enuff it just followed it.
Now then the expiry over and a month of some good gains done with.Its now time to play.
The downsides as i see it, wud be very important,more than the highs.
Above 3428 wud negate the fall,that was present today.Then the upside remains intact.
The downside to mantain wud be 3406-3398-3375.Below 3375 its gone.

And let me make this straight,everyone wants to make money and all fundamentals then take a back seat.Its a gambling den and the house wins when its stuck in a trading range.
It can get very interesting for the bulls as well as the bears.
Lets C.
Warm regards
Amit

 

[amitt29]

A new week approaches with a shortened trading week(for the Cow Jones) a test for my contention that we will move independent of US and other markets.
Now then, I see a unusual week ahead.
The downside to mantain again wud be 3420 (shud be closing above 3420 to mantain this forward march)The Nifty faltered near 3457,so immediate targets shud be above that.I have a possible turning point date at 4th sep and had one incidentally 1 day back(strangely never had two turning points within 3 days b4).
I have raised the bar again lets see.
Will update as it comes up during the day.
Best to your week
Regards
Amit.

 

[amitt29]

A new week approaches with a shortened trading week(for the Cow Jones) a test for my contention that we will move independent of US and other markets.
I have raised the bar again lets see.
Amit.

What a steady hold up day,seems it is unrelenting.It took out the resistance at 3480 with ease and closed just at almost the highest point of the day.Perhaps a gapup again tomorrow,gaps to take care of gaps.
The uptrend continues at 3480-3496-3509.The downside bar is raised again by me at 3456.
Seems we will close at 12k on sensex for 1st time since a long while back.
Have an excellent trading day.
Regards
Amit.

 

[zxcvbnm123456]

good one........

 

[amitt29]

What a steady hold up day,seems it is unrelenting.It took out the resistance at 3480 with ease and closed just at almost the highest point of the day.Perhaps a gapup again tomorrow,gaps to take care of gaps.
The uptrend continues at 3480-3496-3509.The downside bar is raised again by me at 3456.
Seems we will close at 12k on sensex for 1st time since a long while back.
Have an excellent trading day.
Regards
Amit.

Bang on the low for the day at 3457.
The levels still hold for tomorrow.
Regards

 

[amitt29]

Hi,
Interesting session,those who are familiar with TA wud have noticed the fight amongst the Bears and the Bulls,with the Bears getting marginally ahead at the end.
However a word of caution for longs ,exercise caution near 3421 and if it goes below then 3367 in the coming two days.
Never b4 i had 2 turning points within earshot of each other in a week.So mantain caution b4 initiating any position.Above 3470 the rallly is safe.

I will try and update tomorrow.

 

[jdm]

So mantain caution

hi amitt,

every day after i download the data, i run, almost religiously, a exploration. well sorry to disappont, no holy grail, but a simple exploration which tell me how the stocks fared. in simple words, whats the % change from its previous close.

well the mundaneness of the exploration might log you out, but then one can get useful insight from mundane things, provided you want to, and if you want, read on.

well what i want to know is, how many script has closed above 10% or has fallen by more than 10% from its previous close. and what the data says:

let me start with the good news first. there were 7 stocks which closed above 10% namely, media video up 19.79% birla vxl up 19.63%, videocon appliances up 13.8%, vesuvius up 12.38%, jet airways up 12.07% munjal auto up 10.32%, and surprise surprise united western bank up 10.05%.

now let me bring the bad news. but to my astonishment there was only 2 stocks that was down more than 10%. one was bagyanagar metal down 47% and dynacons systems down 12.5%. now considering the former went ex-bonus today only, we can discount the same (actually it has risen by a hefty 5%). then you are left with only dynacons systems. now considering the script value (quoting at 35 paisa) one can discount the same also.

considering the global meltdown (all major markets down more than 1%), the sensex down by 80 odd points, and specifically the reason for the fall (todays fall is attributed to renewed interest rate hike in the US. remember how this very reason played havoc just a few months back) isn't it strange that theres virtually no script down more than 10%.

if this be the result on a day like this, where not only negative sentiment prevails but also at levels, as high like this, don't you think its high time we say "NO NEED OF CAUTION".

mundane things says a lot more. but till then ..........

cheers,
jdm.