4xpipcounter's trendlines

Have you found this thread helpful in learning to trade trendlines

  • Wow! I never thought it would be this good

    Votes: 30 83.3%
  • Yes, it was okay

    Votes: 3 8.3%
  • Not really, could see no benefit

    Votes: 3 8.3%
  • Dude! You were way off. This is terrible.

    Votes: 1 2.8%

  • Total voters
    36

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#91
LOL, it's impossible to keep ichi apart on this one, Sunny. I knew this was Nifty before I read it on your chart.
Now that I fully divulged that, let me tell you what will happen, and I will tell you what will happen with the obvious, with respect to your TL.

One rule or the other is bound to be broken. We have the obvious TL break. It's a nice strong candle, so it should move up higher, then correct back, and then head higher yet. We know the TL is drawn just a short ways under a fresh cloud, so if the TL scenario play out, then the fresh cloud gets broken into on the 1st hit.
If the cloud rule holds, then we just got fake out on the TL.

Now, let's get back to strictly TL's. We have the strong candle break, so this week it should head higher, then we get the correction back to the point of the break, and it could travel to the TL. Afterward, it resumes the UP by heading even higher.

BTW, excellent chart. The 1st few posts in this thread, I wanted to show the rule, because it is the only way to show how to trade a TL.
If this turns out to be the exception, then no harm was done, because the rule is to place the trade after the correction was made and not on the heels of the break. The exception also suggests to us that when the low of the candle that broke the TL is broken, then that is the signal we are back in the DOWN.

Also, a couple of other things you should know. Nifty is the one market that I don't trade that I look at more than any of them, DJIA included. This is because of its immense popularity in this forum. I don't think a time will come when you would be bale to post its chart, when it has not already registered in my rote memory.
Here's a metaphor: You know what your wife looks like. If you go away on a 2-week business trip, when you get back, you will still know what she looks like. Her face has kicked in your rote memory. I don't love Nifty like you do your wife, but you get the idea.

If you want to post a chart on something I know nothing about, or have no access to the market, then that's fine. I'll look at in terms of TL's only, my total methodology, or any other methodology I have some knowledge about. They are actually more fun, and it does help me in exercising more. When others become the benefactor, then we all benefit.


How would u analyse this? Considering TL only...keep Ichi apart ;)

This is Nifty spot, daily
 

sunny_cool

Well-Known Member
#92
As its impossible to keep Ichi away:)...so here it comes TL with Ichi
Please analyse

Green TL is from Weekly & Red one for daily



Weekly


Daily



4-hr
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#93
Sunny, are you saying you got the itch for ichi?
Well, with your itch, it left me scratching my head. I just got back from vacation, and I'm not sure I know how to read charts anymore.

(Oh okay, I'm joking.)
The real story of where this market is headed is between the daily and the weekly charts. I can see the daily TL, which is drawn perfectly, and there was a break of it. The weekly had a fresh break into the cloud, and so it should be headed to the the top. It might get consolidative on the way, by virtue of needing a correction back to the TL, but that is about the size of it.


As its impossible to keep Ichi away:)...so here it comes TL with Ichi
Please analyse

Green TL is from Weekly & Red one for daily



Weekly


Daily



4-hr
 

sanjosedesi

Well-Known Member
#94
Paul, a question for you related to trend lines, specifically 'ignoring' ichimoku.

I have started dabbling in trades based on technicals. However, I find ichimoku too complex, and use a bunch of indicators which cumulatively are probably as complex as ichimoku, but seeing them individually probably works for me better. My potential entry points are moving averages, their crossover or slope, and confirming points are MACD and / or stochastic. I also use the SD channel. I track the last trend but nothing extensive such as weekly, monthly, daily SARs.

My question was this ... assuming I wanted to just depend on trend lines to make an entry ... as you described in the first few posts ... will I be looking at a lot less trades or more trades, will I be looking at smaller trades or larger trades (in terms of price delta, not order amount), will I be looking at lot more stop losses or lot less losses and so on ... My feeling was that MA crossover or trend lines are potentially the best starting points to make a trade for a beginner because they are easy to see on the charts. However, I am not sure what extra risk I will be adding by taking just TLs as a starting point.

What do you think?
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#95
SJD, part of the reason I started this thread and show the methodology behind TL's was to show they can be used as a standalone. For people who do not like indicators or find them too complex, then TL's can be ideal.
Also, wait for me to finish my series on price action. You will find it can be used in lieu of TL's. Once you start noticing the range of the break on a TL, then you would be bale to use the price action series to further determine, not only the depths or height of the move, but also the velocity.
With regards to SL's, let's use a downtrend as an example, which means an UP TL would need to be broken. Once you get the correction back to the TL, your SL would be the recent swing high before the break of the SL. I'm not in to RR ratios, for the various reasons I mentioned in previous posts. Nevertheless, and entry after the correction makes for a nice RR ratio.


Paul, a question for you related to trend lines, specifically 'ignoring' ichimoku.

I have started dabbling in trades based on technicals. However, I find ichimoku too complex, and use a bunch of indicators which cumulatively are probably as complex as ichimoku, but seeing them individually probably works for me better. My potential entry points are moving averages, their crossover or slope, and confirming points are MACD and / or stochastic. I also use the SD channel. I track the last trend but nothing extensive such as weekly, monthly, daily SARs.

My question was this ... assuming I wanted to just depend on trend lines to make an entry ... as you described in the first few posts ... will I be looking at a lot less trades or more trades, will I be looking at smaller trades or larger trades (in terms of price delta, not order amount), will I be looking at lot more stop losses or lot less losses and so on ... My feeling was that MA crossover or trend lines are potentially the best starting points to make a trade for a beginner because they are easy to see on the charts. However, I am not sure what extra risk I will be adding by taking just TLs as a starting point.

What do you think?
 

sunny_cool

Well-Known Member
#96
This is how it looks after 3 days Paul....now is it right time to take position or have to wait it to trade above the TL....How wud u take position in this script?

 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#97
First I would delete the red line. It was nice to see if you would get a reaction at it, but when you know it was not drawn from the peak, you know the odds are against you it will yield a desired result, particularly when the perfect TL and the dominant one is under it.
I drew what you need to know on your chart. Let me know if you need additional clarification.
In essence, this market is headed a little lower before it turns back around in the UP.


image host



This is how it looks after 3 days Paul....now is it right time to take position or have to wait it to trade above the TL....How wud u take position in this script?
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
Sunny, based on what I see on this chart, I would not have seen the sharp reversal coming. One strong candle, and that was the end of it.
It would seem to be obvious at this point it is headed much lower. I tried to find this chart in my collection, but could not. I was going to plot the daily to see what it looks like. It seems clear that now the daily TL was broken. We are back under the cloud on a volatile move, and the swing low was broken, so it all adds up. The only thing is this market is highly volatile right now, so that is the only warning sign.


How to play it now...is it good time to short it?

 
Last edited:

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