60 min Flow in International Commodities.

[dnjadeja]

Gold in $

 

[Saint]

Gold in $

Good to have you back,DN.....

Saint

 

[Saint]

Its good to see that everybody is enthusiastic about Trading but we cannot miss the most important Task before we actually start practicing a theory and that is EDUCATION.

Everyone is following Pivots for trading here but we still have not learnt how to identify Pivots, why do we need to ask each other whether this is a Pivot or not, we should be able to identify a Pivot even if somebody drags us from our sleep and asks us SHOW ME THE PIVOTS in this chart.


I am attaching a chart of the Pivots that are Visually obvious, though many of our colleagues like Rakeshluthra, Smart trade, Pattel have graduated to Aggressive Pivots but still it is important to learn basics before we graduate

Now see this chart and think how profitable it would have been to trade Crude even with Visually Obvious Pivots

Just to re-post this post..........Best to play this the old fashioned way,Visually Obvious and 2 bar Method.

Saint

 

[Saint]

recent Eg. of using rsi.......

this chart is according to Gold mini march contract......so see the values 4 urself.....

the PH on 29....we shud hav taken the higher high as pl......this is a case of sideways movement forming a ph.....with \/\/ format........


we need a good enuf retracement to consider a pivot valid pivot...not just any retracement........look at 30 jan candles...and a whipsaw pl......it was not a good enuf retracement .. so we shud not hav considered it as pl.....rsi indicator supported.....

and that is what happened...we got ourselves a new pl

and finally.....dun consider saturdays...i had mentioned b4 the reason 4 d same.....

regards

neeraj

That was not a Pivot Low as we haven't got our new highs or the long sideways either........but that is besides the point.If indicators like RSI come in useful for trading the 60min Flow,then great going guys.

Some great stuff from you,Neeraj,in this thread.

Thanx,
Saint

 

[Saint]

Rakesh,

Your question on ADDS.

Same strategy as always.........but no add over the mini pivots.Play only the visually obvious pivots.There are other scenarios for us to add,they remain the same.

Saint

 

[Smart_trade]

I posted mini gold chart in another thread but I feel it is a wrong thread to post there.

Now posting in the thread where it belongs to

Still long in mini gold with add.

Smart_trade

 

[Smart_trade]

Saint,

As you are posting here in this thread, lemme grab an opportunity to put a question .

Was discussing with Rakesh yesterday whether in the above chart,on 20th we had a break of PH on the last bar and the low of this breakout bar was cracked on 21st, can we take this as reversal signal on breakout failure critaria ?

After discussions we came to conclusion that though it is a breakout failure, we would not reverse to short because of following reason :

Between the PH and the breakout bar it was only 3 bars in between, I would like to see a good consolidation of 8-10 bars and mkt making another attempt to breakout and if failed that is much more valid failure. In this case it looks as a continued attempt to breakout without proper consolidation and hence not valid for reversal. ( This idea is not mine,borrowed from Linda Raschke from her Turtle Soup breakout failure pattern )

We would certainly consider this for reversal if we are trading mini flow method for daytrading.

Though we came to conclusion,still want views of you,prabhjeet,satya and others to add to our understanding of breakout failures.

Sorry for not leaving a single opportunity of troubling you with questions.

Regards,

Smart_trade

 

[Saint]

Saint if you can spare some time, can we talk about the Trading Ranges.

If you liked the idea, can we somehow use it in our flow method after working on Finer details.

Taking the HDIL example again,Prabhjeet,it is very evident to the Eye that we can easily succeed till 14th Oct,and again from 19th Nov.

Shorting the breakdown from the range is part of strategy.Getting out of shorts when pivots broke in mid-Oct is also part of startegy.

The question is:How much into the range would you come to a conclusion that this is indeed a range and you should stay out of this one till a clear trend emerges?Basically,at what point do you start drawing envelopes?

Let's take the same example of HDIL.....Awaiting for your reply.

As you would already have figured out,but for the newer guys:The 60min Flow requires minimum effort from us and maximum effort from the markets.It's like a moving stream,we don't want a turbulent river....but we don't want a lake either.How and when to trade is the easy part....figure out in addition how and when not to trade within that strategy,and you have just discovered the Holy Grail of Trading.

Saint

 

[Prabhjeet]

Saint,

As you are posting here in this thread, lemme grab an opportunity to put a question .

Was discussing with Rakesh yesterday whether in the above chart,on 20th we had a break of PH on the last bar and the low of this breakout bar was cracked on 21st, can we take this as reversal signal on breakout failure critaria ?

After discussions we came to conclusion that though it is a breakout failure, we would not reverse to short because of following reason :

Between the PH and the breakout bar it was only 3 bars in between, I would like to see a good consolidation of 8-10 bars and mkt making another attempt to breakout and if failed that is much more valid failure. In this case it looks as a continued attempt to breakout without proper consolidation and hence not valid for reversal. ( This idea is not mine,borrowed from Linda Raschke from her Turtle Soup breakout failure pattern )

We would certainly consider this for reversal if we are trading mini flow method for daytrading.

Though we came to conclusion,still want views of you,prabhjeet,satya and others to add to our understanding of breakout failures.

Sorry for not leaving a single opportunity of troubling you with questions.

Regards,

Smart_trade

Your reasoning of only 3 bars looks quite valid to me ST, I had not thought in this manner before but yes even I would completely agree that if we had around 7-8 bars and then a Breakout, it would be more significant.

I would just like to add 1 more thing here. I think any Breakout Failure is an important event marketwise as the market is refusing to go with the Trend any more so we can use Breakout Failure in a bit of blend of aggressive and conservative strategy.

Lets say if we were long prior to Breakout failure and the trend had been a prolonged one, what we can do is exit at the Breakout failure but short only once the Pivot breaks not immediately on the Failing of Breakout bar.

And even if the Breakout Failure proves False, we can actually get back Long above the high of this bar or may be we can exit half our position at the Breakout Failure and rest half at Pivot break

 

[Prabhjeet]

Taking the HDIL example again,Prabhjeet,it is very evident to the Eye that we can easily succeed till 14th Oct,and again from 19th Nov.

Shorting the breakdown from the range is part of strategy.Getting out of shorts when pivots broke in mid-Oct is also part of startegy.

The question is:How much into the range would you come to a conclusion that this is indeed a range and you should stay out of this one till a clear trend emerges?Basically,at what point do you start drawing envelopes?

Let's take the same example of HDIL.....Awaiting for your reply.

As you would already have figured out,but for the newer guys:The 60min Flow requires minimum effort from us and maximum effort from the markets.It's like a moving stream,we don't want a turbulent river....but we don't want a lake either.How and when to trade is the easy part....figure out in addition how and when not to trade within that strategy,and you have just discovered the Holy Grail of Trading.

Saint

Saint I had mentioned somewhere earlier that I started to use Trading Range on 60 min. when we have already got around 10 bars in an obvious Range on a Daily chart, so that would mean around 60 bars for a 60 min. charts when Trading stocks and for commodities that will turn to around 140 bars on 60 min. charts.

And as you said, we could have made money In HDIL till 14 and then after 18th, very true, we could have, but thats the characteristics of a Trading Range, it Precedes and also ends the Trending phase. We just have to try and stay outside the markets in the interim period which starts and ends the range.