60 min Flow in International Commodities.

[Saint]

ST,

Your question of breakout bar of 20th. I would really play the visually obvious pivots that Saint has talked about. Also it was felt by people who have been trading gold for a longer time than us like Neeraj and Rishig, advocate a lazyman's approach. In your above example a new PL is yet to form, so we wait for that to form or reverse when our present SAR at last PL is broken. Also if you see the breakout bar that you are talking about is not an extraordinarily long bar or a WRB. We still have to experience a real WRB failure to see how gold charts react. I will check last two years data and come back here but till then I will not be taking any single bar (even if it is a large bar) failure as a reversal in gold.

Also if you see carefully many times in gold we see a spike i.e., a long topping tail which is longer than the surrounding bars. Which also means that bar has failed but the trend remained intact. These spikes are a head ache as I have seen they take out filter of even 50 points. This was one of the reasons ( apart from the fatigue angle of trading long hours in commodity trading) which forced me to play the daily charts instead of 60 minutes. The daily charts behave very well in gold.

So wait and watch approach for me and reversal only when a major (visually obvious) pivot is broken.

My views

Bee

Yes......pivot always for reversal especially if nearby(visually obvious).2 bar method if not around nearby and big moves.

BBF has a place,but very rarely do we need to reverse using that....probably an unusually big bar from a long sideways consolidation.And a few others....

Saint

 

[grabme_kr]

sir
can any one suggest in investing in gold......
mean the procedure

 

[beethoven]

But my question still remains Bee, when do you start using such strategy and when do you stop using them because getting out early once we are out of a Range can be Suicidal for Trend Followers like us.

So please think on the lines that when should we start using strategies like you just mentioned above. I know, you are among the Bright minds who can come up with lots of ideas

Prabh, all I can say at this stage - we will come to know when to keep out and when to jump in by gaining experience, some art, some occult, a bit of luck, a good eye and above all teachings of Saint applied to various situations.

Saint tried to teach our raw minds with a set to rules first. Then he gave us a very small glimpse of this way of reading the price action. That small glimpse gave me some idea as to how his mind works. Then ST and Rakesh also showed us how prices move. Many small things Saint said also gave clues to novices like me who did not have any inkling as to what was going on and how to read the various moves.

Things like peeking into lower TF, warning bells ringing when a pivot is broken on 30 TF when playing 60 min flow, breakout bar dynamics, moving filter bar by bar or pivot by pivot --- all these if thought carefully reveal a full adventure story.

I am still too raw to formulate any rules. I can only say here how I play by reading the situation as best as I have learned till now.

Bee

 

[Smart_trade]

Saint sir,Prabhjeet,Rakesh,Bee .......

Thanks for the nice discussions on range movements and breakout failures.

As Saint sir very rightly said,if we we can get a handle on range movements,we can stay out of these movements, save our resources and get back in once market comes out of the range and starts trending. These range and trend movements are repetative in nature and if we identify the range movements early enough,it will save lots of frustrating stoplosses and loss of profits earned during trending stage.

This is a big challenge and let us all work on this towards a "holy grail". I am trying an idea and I can share that with you here as under :

When I have a long uptrend,I am getting ready for a sideways consolidation or distribution move soon to hit us. But as Prabhjeet said how do we know when the sideways move starts and where it ends and another trend move starts ?

For me a trending move is successively higher lows in uptrend and successively lower highs in a downtrend. Lets take example of an uptrend,we are having higher lows . Now the range move is said to have started when mkt does not make a higher low higher than the highest low in last 10 look back bars. The range move ends and uptrend resumes when mkt makes a higher low more than highest low made in last 10 bars look back period.

There is a possibility of downmove starting from this range move. A downmove is said to have started when mkt makes a lower high lower than lowest high in look back period of last 10 bars, and we are back to our 60 min pivot magic trading for extracting good points from that downmove.

The idea is still in idea stage,will come out with examples on chart once I am convinced about its application. Just food for thought for everyone to munch

Best Wishes,

Smart_trade

 

[beethoven]

All this is great. We seem to be evolving in fits and starts as we encounter different situations (flags, trading ranges) and trade different securities (gold requiring a lazyman's approach etc.). The ideas being thrown up by various people - I am sure some of these ideas are also being practiced by people who have proposed them - will take us to a higher level of sophistication in this method.

It is good to be at the cutting edge of this method while it is evolving. Makes you feel lucky that you were here when all this was being formulated.

Great to be here in this forum with a set of very good friends and above all Saint as our guiding light.

Bee

 

[musicjunkie]

Reversed To short now

MJ-

 

[Smart_trade]

Nice upmove in crude. Gold and crude normally go in opposite direction ?

Nothing happening in copper.

ST

 

[musicjunkie]

Nice upmove in crude. Gold and crude normally go in opposite direction ?

Nothing happening in copper.

ST

Actually ST this is one thing in commodities that is good. Commodities can be unrelated completely, all have a mind of their own.
Unlike stocks which usually move one way in communion.

MJ

 

[Smart_trade]

Good move in copper ,it made me eat my words

ST

 

[Satyen]

Hi friends nice discusion going on on ranges etc …….. we are trying to find out whether we will have a range or not …..infact we trying to predict future we may have success to find it which is great but
In my thought instead of trying to predict we can use one of our weapon to finght is “ADD”
We can derieve a plan to ADD or to capitalise on quick patterns on nifty and it should be time proof that is should not depend on trending days and range days
I would suggest to work on GAPs /and special support and resistance in terms of pivot to capitalise so that in range days also our ADD will earn to compensate our loss in trend trading set up 60 min flow
Some of my thoughts are
1: Use 15 min pivot trading when gap is in our direction
A: while we are below 5 min low use short only and if pivot or any candlestic pattern says reversal then cover only
B: while we r above 5 min high then long only if pivot or any candle stic pattern above 5 min high saysreversal then cover only

2: while gap against our dirrection then
A: If long and gap down then if 5 min low broken then I generaly reverses my main base lot 60 min flow trades and trade stop is if we r below pivot then prev pivot high is stop if not then 5 min high is stop
And trade the ADD one as usual gap trading mention above
B : If long and GAP down and 5 min low saved ADD on 5 min high brk this ADD may also take home …….. but some time has to book it same day

Support /Resistance :
My thinking on S/R
While price move then we can observe how it behaves at its imidiate major/Valid pivot
It has 3 type of behaviour near prev pivot
1 : It may passs smoothly without making any noise
2:it may break it then comes back then agaain brk basicaly makes noise there
3: OR it may respect this previously made pivot and throw some pattern

Now our area of interest is 3rd case how we can capitalise from these patterns as we are getting clear picture of supply/demand

These are some thoughts of mine wanted to have comments from all of you to improve
Got some work will post some charts of nifty tomorrow to show what I am trying to say
Good night

Regards
Satya