60 min Flow in International Commodities.

[Saint]

Saint I had mentioned somewhere earlier that I started to use Trading Range on 60 min. when we have already got around 10 bars in an obvious Range on a Daily chart, so that would mean around 60 bars for a 60 min. charts when Trading stocks and for commodities that will turn to around 140 bars on 60 min. charts.

And as you said, we could have made money In HDIL till 14 and then after 18th, very true, we could have, but thats the characteristics of a Trading Range, it Precedes and also ends the Trending phase. We just have to try and stay outside the markets in the interim period which starts and ends the range.

Agreed totally.......our job is to go with the flow,and therefore,if there is no flow,we stay out.Let us see how this goes......

Thanx,
Saint

 

[Prabhjeet]

But frankly speaking Sir, after the discovery of these Trading ranges I am feeling disappointed at my attitude towards markets.

May be I am trying to search the Holy Grail named "When not to Trade the markets". Every system has its drawdowns and our system will also have some.

I sincerely request you to tell, whether we need to see ranges at all or should we keep on Trading the ranges without bothering if they are there and think of them as part and parcel of flow method.

Even Bee had pointed out that we can Trade the Aggressive Pivots when struck in the range, but I still think it is very difficult to trade these kind of markets with any method, take the example of Nifty, most of the people trading Nifty for last 2 months are loosing money whether Pure or Aggressive

I would like you to think very seriously about this matter, if finding When not to trade is not important, I should just forget the whole topic and instead focus on our Pivots

 

[Saint]

But frankly speaking Sir, after the discovery of these Trading ranges I am feeling disappointed at my attitude towards markets.

May be I am trying to search the Holy Grail names "When not to Trade the markets". Every system has its drawdowns and our system will also have some.

I sincerely request you to tell, whether we need to see ranges at all or should we keep on Trading the ranges without bothering if they are there and think of them as part and parcel of flow method.

I would like you to think very seriously about this matter, if finding When not to trade is not important, I should just forget the whole topic and instead focus on our Pivots

Not at all,very important to know when not to trade..........the 60min Flow needs trends on the 60,and we go low and slow on ranges,no harm in that.But if there is someway that keeps a Trend Trader out of Ranges,am all ears to hear and implement it.

Keep thinking along your lines.........great going,Prabhjeet.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Saint,

As you are posting here in this thread, lemme grab an opportunity to put a question .

Was discussing with Rakesh yesterday whether in the above chart,on 20th we had a break of PH on the last bar and the low of this breakout bar was cracked on 21st, can we take this as reversal signal on breakout failure critaria ?

After discussions we came to conclusion that though it is a breakout failure, we would not reverse to short because of following reason :

Between the PH and the breakout bar it was only 3 bars in between, I would like to see a good consolidation of 8-10 bars and mkt making another attempt to breakout and if failed that is much more valid failure. In this case it looks as a continued attempt to breakout without proper consolidation and hence not valid for reversal. ( This idea is not mine,borrowed from Linda Raschke from her Turtle Soup breakout failure pattern )

We would certainly consider this for reversal if we are trading mini flow method for daytrading.

Though we came to conclusion,still want views of you,prabhjeet,satya and others to add to our understanding of breakout failures.

Sorry for not leaving a single opportunity of troubling you with questions.

Regards,

Smart_trade

As said before,ST,cannot explain it better.......great going and great stuff.

Saint

 

[Prabhjeet]

Not at all,very important to know when not to trade..........the 60min Flow needs trends on the 60,and we go low and slow on ranges,no harm in that.But if there is someway that keeps a Trend Trader out of Ranges,am all ears to hear and implement it.

Keep thinking along your lines.........great going,Prabhjeet.

Saint

Thanks for the encouraging words Saint, now I can pursue my research with a greater vigour


The most important question regarding ranges remain, WHEN to start using envelopes. The author who originally put forward this theory of Trading Ranges says that we use them after there are 25 bars on the charts, but this criteria is for DAILY charts and since we are 60 min. traders, the question remains How many bars do we need on 60 min. charts. It would be very helpful if all the Senior members can visually backtest and share their ideas about this.

 

[beethoven]

ST,

Your question of breakout bar of 20th. I would really play the visually obvious pivots that Saint has talked about. Also it was felt by people who have been trading gold for a longer time than us like Neeraj and Rishig, advocate a lazyman's approach. In your above example a new PL is yet to form, so we wait for that to form or reverse when our present SAR at last PL is broken. Also if you see the breakout bar that you are talking about is not an extraordinarily long bar or a WRB. We still have to experience a real WRB failure to see how gold charts react. I will check last two years data and come back here but till then I will not be taking any single bar (even if it is a large bar) failure as a reversal in gold.

Also if you see carefully many times in gold we see a spike i.e., a long topping tail which is longer than the surrounding bars. Which also means that bar has failed but the trend remained intact. These spikes are a head ache as I have seen they take out filter of even 50 points. This was one of the reasons ( apart from the fatigue angle of trading long hours in commodity trading) which forced me to play the daily charts instead of 60 minutes. The daily charts behave very well in gold.

So wait and watch approach for me and reversal only when a major (visually obvious) pivot is broken.

My views

Bee

 

[Saint]

One of the deviations from Saint's rule (please forgive me Saint) which I have found very profitable is to delink exit and entry. This is a case in point. We can exit at the point Prabh wanted and lock in our profits but entry again either long or short can be on actual pivot break +/_ filter. This keeps us out of congestion zones, flags, etc. I cannot formulate rules but I have practiced this. I am out of NF now and waiting for a PIVOT break to enter.

I will now see in Gold the trend for some time and then decide to book and keep out and wait for proper entry. But till now am still long as I believe Gold will not fall straight and hit my present SAR without making a single bullish candle.

Bee

Multiple commodities here,finite capital.........best to find a way to stay out of ranges and redeploy funds elsewhere and get back to it once it starts trending again.

So great going,Bee.

Saint

 

[beethoven]

Even Bee had pointed out that we can Trade the Aggressive Pivots when struck in the range, but I still think it is very difficult to trade these kind of markets with any method, take the example of Nifty, most of the people trading Nifty for last 2 months are loosing money whether Pure or Aggressive

I would like you to think very seriously about this matter, if finding When not to trade is not important, I should just forget the whole topic and instead focus on our Pivots

Prabh, In NF, I have been making some profits, primarily by delinking exit and entry. Exit at the extreme of the range and entering again at pivot break or add points. This works when NF is only trending one way for 150 to 200 points. IF it trends more than that then pure 60 min flow rules of reversing is ok and makes good money. If the nifty is in the range of less than 100 points then I stay out like I am out of NF now. My way of seeing things.

Like Saint said HOLY GRAIL of trading. I would go on say that each one will find his own HOLY GRAIL of trading.

I am still searching and the results are encouraging

Bee

 

[Prabhjeet]

Prabh, In NF, I have been making some profits, primarily by delinking exit and entry. Exit at the extreme of the range and entering again at pivot break or add points. This works when NF is only trending one way for 150 to 200 points. IF it trends more than that then pure 60 min flow rules of reversing is ok and makes good money. If the nifty is in the range of less than 100 points then I stay out like I am out of NF now. My way of seeing things.

Like Saint said HOLY GRAIL of trading. I would go on say that each one will find his own HOLY GRAIL of trading.

I am still searching and the results are encouraging

Bee

Looks like a good idea for Trading in the Ranges Bee. Thats why they say the way to Have Best Idea is to have a lots of them, great !.

But my question still remains Bee, when do you start using such strategy and when do you stop using them because getting out early once we are out of a Range can be Suicidal for Trend Followers like us.

So please think on the lines that when should we start using strategies like you just mentioned above. I know, you are among the Bright minds who can come up with lots of ideas

 

[grabme_kr]

Hi

Hi EveryBody

This is RAJESH.
New to our community