Elliott Wave Theory

[1sandeepgupta]

I am posting weekly chart of Adani Power chart. It seems that it has bottomed out. It has completed to 5 waves downwards and is correcting upwards. One can buy at the levels around 48 with stop loss at 41 and the first target at 73 and the second target may be at 101.19.

Disclaimer: This and all the ideas I present are for educational purpose only.

 

[sabu28]

How can one learn the art of labelling the waves correctly?

 

[aryabhatta]

How can one learn the art of labelling the waves correctly?

Easiest way is to use software .... elwave or adget

But before you spend your time & effort on elliott wave do consider the following.

The worlds foremost practitioner of elliott wave theory is Robert Prechter, who along with A.J. Frost wrote the "The Elliott Wave Principle" in 1977-78 based on eliott's work.

For decades this book has been considered the industry standard for Eliott wave.

You can see here 2005 edition --> http://www.amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-...=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1415568260&sr=1-1

But does it work? A pudding may look yummy but is it tasty? We can only find out if we taste the pudding.

Sure he may have won a trading competition in the 1980's and predicted the 1987 crash but even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day so lets take a look at Robert Prechters LONG TERM track record to see if the Elliott Wave pudding is yummy.... you can see here

--->http://www.avaresearch.com/articles/713/The-Embarrassing-Track-Record-Of-Robert-Prechter-Part-1.html

here as well

---> http://www.lesjones.com/2010/06/02/...bert-prechter-and-elliott-wave-international/

To summarize from 1/1/85~5/21/09 Robert Prechter

Annualized return is -15.4%
Total return is -98.3%

after 5/21/09 his record has even worse than this.

So if the worlds leading expert who has spent decades mastering the Elliott Wave theory has this track record there are two possibilities

1)Robert Prechter spent 40 years studying and practicing eliott wave and still got this dismal record so he is very dumb ..... but if you study it for few months you will understand it better than him and make good money.

2)Eliott Wave Principle is a fictitious concocted story

You decide.

David Aronson wrote

The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.

So you decide?

Now contrast this with say Value investing

Benjamin Graham wrote about Value Investing in the early 20th century. The worlds foremost practioner of Value Investing is Warren Buffet ... he studies and practiced Value Investing for decades. If you see his track record its somewhere near +30% on an anualized basis since the 1960's. In additon to this you can see the record of other practitioners of Value investing like Walter Schloss, Seth Karlman ... etc who have similar long term track records.

Hence it may be legitimate and you could consider devoting time to study it .... I'm not saying study this method or that method I'm just saying before you commit your time and effort to a method try to determine if its legitimate or not.

 

[1sandeepgupta]

Easiest way is to use software .... elwave or adget

But before you spend your time & effort on elliott wave do consider the following.

The worlds foremost practitioner of elliott wave theory is Robert Prechter, who along with A.J. Frost wrote the "The Elliott Wave Principle" in 1977-78 based on eliott's work.

For decades this book has been considered the industry standard for Eliott wave.

You can see here 2005 edition --> http://www.amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-...=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1415568260&sr=1-1

But does it work? A pudding may look yummy but is it tasty? We can only find out if we taste the pudding.

Sure he may have won a trading competition in the 1980's and predicted the 1987 crash but even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day so lets take a look at Robert Prechters LONG TERM track record to see if the Elliott Wave pudding is yummy.... you can see here

--->http://www.avaresearch.com/articles/713/The-Embarrassing-Track-Record-Of-Robert-Prechter-Part-1.html

here as well

---> http://www.lesjones.com/2010/06/02/...bert-prechter-and-elliott-wave-international/



after 5/21/09 his record has even worse than this.

So if the worlds leading expert who has spent decades mastering the Elliott Wave theory has this track record there are two possibilities

1)Robert Prechter spent 40 years studying and practicing eliott wave and still got this dismal record so he is very dumb ..... but if you study it for few months you will understand it better than him and make good money.

2)Eliott Wave Principle is a fictitious concocted story

You decide.

David Aronson wrote



So you decide?

Now contrast this with say Value investing

Benjamin Graham wrote about Value Investing in the early 20th century. The worlds foremost practioner of Value Investing is Warren Buffet ... he studies and practiced Value Investing for decades. If you see his track record its somewhere near +30% on an anualized basis since the 1960's. In additon to this you can see the record of other practitioners of Value investing like Walter Schloss, Seth Karlman ... etc who have similar long term track records.

Hence it may be legitimate and you could consider devoting time to study it .... I'm not saying study this method or that method I'm just saying before you commit your time and effort to a method try to determine if its legitimate or not.

I beg your pardon but there is no easy way to invest or trade the markets. This require the sound understanding of either the fundamental analysis or the technical analysis of the scrip you are interested in. So first you have to choose the approach between the fundamental or technical.

As far as as Elliott's wave theory is concerned you have to study it deeply and apply it in practice. Using it one can enter the trade early and remain in it with confidence.

 

[prabhsingh]

Anybody aware from where can i get freeversion of AdvGet?

 

[aryabhatta]

I beg your pardon but there is no easy way to invest or trade the markets. This require the sound understanding of either the fundamental analysis or the technical analysis of the scrip you are interested in. So first you have to choose the approach between the fundamental or technical.

I agree sir.

As far as as Elliott's wave theory is concerned you have to study it deeply and apply it in practice. Using it one can enter the trade early and remain in it with confidence.

Sir Prechter studied & practiced it more than you. I have read his book its very comprehensive almost like an academic research thesis. Same with Neely.

Did it help him get in the trade early and remain in it with confidence?

I doubt that ...... considering he would have lost 98% of his equity from 1985~2009.

He would have gone broke but he hasn't .... in fact he's very wealthy ....why is that ? ...... well that's because he sells his advisory services called Elliott Wave International.

The only way one can make money using the Elliott wave theory is to sell advisory services. I think you are also planning that in the future .... am I correct?

 

[1sandeepgupta]

I agree sir.



Sir Prechter studied & practiced it more than you. I have read his book its very comprehensive almost like an academic research thesis. Same with Neely.

Did it help him get in the trade early and remain in it with confidence?

I doubt that ...... considering he would have lost 98% of his equity from 1985~2009.

He would have gone broke but he hasn't .... in fact he's very wealthy ....why is that ? ...... well that's because he sells his advisory services called Elliott Wave International.

The only way one can make money using the Elliott wave theory is to sell advisory services. I think you are also planning that in the future .... am I correct?

As far as his account is concerned I do not think that any body has given the account details as number and where it was opened only criticize some of his predictions and made assumptions. We all can commit mistakes to predict the market. In trading, we all emphasize on proper money management so if we are wrong, we do not have to occur big losses.
I have been trading almost for seven years and I traded many systems and theories, the kind of orientation it gives in the chart is splendid.

 

[1sandeepgupta]

How can one learn the art of labelling the waves correctly?

If you are really interested you can join elliottwave.com, a lot of free stuff there and watch these videos on youtube.com, the links are as follows
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEifQi71rcs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIIyevqaJoM. Once you have familiarized yourself with all the stuff, I will give you further reference.

 

[aryabhatta]

Ok ....

Tell me on thing sir, are you currently selling any kind of advisory services?

 

[prabhsingh]

Ok ....

Tell me on thing sir, are you currently selling any kind of advisory services?

I dont understand whats the contribution going to be made to this thread by getting answer to this question.Can we contribute more positive and meaningful to Elliot wave thread please which should be intent of this thread.