General Elections 2019

[traderhardrock]

Speaking of the market I think it is prudent to remain light positionally wise.

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce - Marx.

So the extended jammat of Marx's orphans, the likes of Cong, SP-BSP and assorted dacoits etc., may have the last laugh on May 23rd because no one knows how the caste ridden crucial states like UP, Maharastra have voted. Very difficult to gauge or predict. Anything is possible in result.

Unlike 2014, this time the election result is not the foregone conclusion. If you listen the hate Modi brigade around you, both online and in the real world, they too are quiet vocal!!

Their burning desire to have the paachaas saal ka baalak (50 yr old child) as PM may Not get fulfilled but they won't mind the return of instability, weak coalition government consisting of scammers and blackmailers.

Nightmarish scenario.

Pray for India - and trade wisely and cautiously.

"Their burning desire to have the paachaas saal ka baalak (50 yr old child) as PM may Not get fulfilled but they won't mind the return of instability, weak coalition government consisting of scammers and blackmailers."
ha ha ha
50 yr old child only want to have a stamp on him as an Indian PM and more so by the coterie around him.

But be positive, NaMo will return with thumping majority.

 

[TraderRavi]

BJP to Get 30-35 Seats in UP, 190-210 Nationally: Brokerage Firm

With the 2019 Lok Sabha elections reaching their climax, a Brokerage firm called Ambit has offered its predictions for the results, saying that the seat share of the BJP in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh may halve from 73 in 2014 to 30-35.

Nationally, the Ambit report predicts the BJP to win 190-210 seats in a base case scenario, with saffron party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) predicted to get 220-240 seats. This might necessitate a post-poll alliance by the NDA with "at least four large regional" parties so as to ensure government formation.
This would mean that while a BJP-led alliance could form next the government, the saffron party would have to depend on the smaller parties, the report indicates.

Ambit's predictions are based upon meetings with politicians, small businesses and academicians in Uttar Pradesh's Gorakhpur, which it then uses for projections at the national level.


Factors Cited for Losses in UP
According to the report, a predicted setback for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh could be the ebbing of the 'Modi wave' and an increase in the SP-BSP combined vote-share as compared to the previous elections. The firm projects the SP-BSP vote share to be 45 percent and BJP's share to be 34.2 percent.

The respective vote-shares are calculated on the basis of giving two-third weightage to the results (vote-share) in 2014 and one-third to the results in 2009.

Nevertheless, a consolidation of the Hindu vote has taken place possibly due to factors such as the cow slaughter ban as well as the exercise of re-naming cities that took place lately, the report notes.
Another interesting observation that the Ambit report makes, citing party workers on the ground, is the possibility of the BSP joining the BJP after the election results are out.

It also notes that BJP candidates and workers are mostly targeting Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (and not the BSP).

https://www.thequint.com/elections/...-for-lok-sabha-elections-2019-by-ambit-report

 

[TraderRavi]

The wire and The quint media reports are biased and mostly anti modi ? or only truth speaking ?
whatever it is but above scenario is worrying for stable govt hopes by stock market.

 

[cinderblock]

Am I missing something or is this just social media bias?

I don't doubt the outcome but given our poll here too and some others, the bias seems overwhelming!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1125955372580106241

 

[TraderRavi]

In Betting Markets, Odds Favour Easy BJP Path to Government
According to the latest available information, Madhya Pradesh’s Neemuch satta bazaar puts the Lok Sabha seat tally at 247-250 for BJP and 77-79 for Congress.

With only 13 days to go for the 2019 Lok Sabha election results and two of the seven rounds of polling left, the satta bazaar is abuzz with speculation.

Will BJP get a clean majority? Will Narendra Modi be back for a second term? How much will Congress be able to dent BJP’s chances? The answers to these questions are raising the stakes at India’s biggest satta bazaars (betting markets) in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.


How many seats will the BJP win? This is the most betted on question, say bookies.


According to the latest available information, Madhya Pradesh’s Neemuch satta bazaar puts the Lok Sabha seat tally at 247-250 for BJP and 77-79 for Congress. Rajasthan’s Phalodi satta bazaar, which has a long history of predicting elections right, puts the figures at 240-245 for BJP with the collective NDA total going up to 320-325.

​

The Phalodi satta bazaar predicts BJP winning 21-22 seats in Rajasthan alone, with Congress managing a mere three-four Lok Sabha seats.

The mood at the Surat satta market is not much different which puts the figures at 246-248 in favour of BJP and with Congress coming at a distant second with 78-80 seats. BJP according to the market sources, could win in 22-23 of the 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat.

Meanwhile, an infographic attributed to News18 Network doing the rounds on social media and instant messaging platforms that show betting market figures is fake and wrongly attributed to the News18 Network. News18 has not produced any such infographic.

The fake infographic in question also deviates a lot from the style and design that News18 channels and websites generally use.

542 seats across 36 states and Union Territories are voting to elect the 17th Lok Sabha. Polls in one seat, Vellore in Tamil Nadu, has been countermanded. 424 seats have already voted in the first five phases of polling with 118 seats more to go for the sixth and the seventh phases. Counting of votes will take place on May 23, 2019.

https://www.news18.com/news/politic...vour-easy-bjp-path-to-government-2136249.html

 

[Punter786]

Chalo, weekend time. Let's have some fun and laugh!!

Laughter is a great stress buster... but I'm Not responsible if you fell laughing from your chair after seeing these clips...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1126161150704402432

And

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1125979443422302210

Case study hai boss...

 

[raindrops]

Time magazine cover

'India's divider in chief': Time magazine cover story asks if India can 'endure another five years of Modi'
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/...f-pm-modi-makes-cover-of-time-magazine/416069

 

[TraderRavi]

Time magazine cover

'India's divider in chief': Time magazine cover story asks if India can 'endure another five years of Modi'
https://www.timesnownews.com/india/...f-pm-modi-makes-cover-of-time-magazine/416069

Mohan bhai summed up him best

But please do not compare Modi with others. He is very different from ordinary politicians.

Yes. No comparison. He is a great actor , blatant liar and super arrogant. He stands ahead in many such aspects than normal politicians.

 

[TradeJoker]

Raghuram Rajan top contender for Bank of England Governor post

 

[TraderRavi]

Election 2019: "I'm Not A Dark Horse, Don't Want To Become PM": Nitin Gadkari To NDTV
Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Nitin Gadkari told NDTV, "We will form an NDA government, not a BJP government. Even if we win a majority on our own, we will consider it an NDA government and take our allies along."

Union Minister Nitin Gadkari said today that he was "not a dark horse" for prime minister and had "no agenda, desire or dream" of becoming prime minister. On speculation about the possibility of the BJP, in the event of a reduced majority and more dependence on allies, having to pick a different face, Mr Gadkari told NDTV: "Narendra Modi is our leader and will be prime minister."

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will win a "reasonably good majority" and form a government under PM Modi's leadership, Mr Gadkari said in an exclusive interview to NDTV.

"We will form an NDA government, not a BJP government. Even if we win a majority on our own, we will consider it an NDA government and take our allies along."

Asked to explain how the BJP would gain more numbers, the Union Minister said his party would win more seats from Odisha, Bengal and Kerala. "Even Uttar Pradesh won't be like you think," he remarked.

Many analyses and opinion polls predict a dent in the BJP's UP tally since 2014 - when it scooped 71 of the state's 80 seats - because of the alliance of the rivals, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The BJP, however, is banking on the opposition's votes being divided with the Congress making it a triangular fight.

"Two plus two is not everything in politics. Two plus two is not four. It is three," Mr Gadkari quipped.

On PM Modi's aggressive targeting of Congress president Rahul Gandhi's father Rajiv Gandhi, the former prime minister assassinated in 1991 by a suicide bomber, Mr Gadkari's response was: "PM chor hai was said by Congress 56 times. There will be action and reaction in election season."


He was referring to the "Chowkidar chor hai" phrase that Congress president Rahul Gandhi has made his campaign cry summing up his allegations of corruption in the Rafale deal signed by PM Modi with France in 2016.

"Rahul Gandhi should be more serious, more mature and wise and should not have to apologise," said the BJP leader, apparently referring to the Congress president having to apologise for attributing false statements to the Supreme Court.

On the flagging economy and warnings of a structural slowdown, Mr Gadkari demurred: "These are not a five year problem but a 70-year problem. Five years is too little. Employment is a problem but not from today. This election will be fought on the basis of our achievements in five years."

Admitting that jobs and farm crises remained a problem, he said: "These problems are because of wrong economic policies, bad and corrupt governance, and visionless leadership of the Congress party. To improve this situation, five years is less. We have changed policies...All this will take time."



Mr Gadkari also fielded questions on the internal churn in the party as founding members LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi were benched for the election. "It was a decision of the party not to field anyone above 75. Would you have a TV anchor at 70," he shot back.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nit...overnment-even-if-bjp-wins-a-majority-2035635