General Trading Chat

[Smart_trade]

ST da whats your view on dhfl & Yes bank on current market Scenario

With liquidity tightening up,the housing finance companies will find their cost of funds going up so they will have a temporary setback. But people will not stop buying homes and all will not buy them making full payments so housing finance companies are here to stay and will do well once they shed their excess weight.

Yes Bank is a good Bank with retail focus but we do not know why Rana Kapoor’s extension is shortened.The grapevine information is that they have under reported NPAs.So let it be clear as to how much NPAs are to be provided for and I am very sure that the bank will bounce back, but we don’t know the extent of the problem.If a new CEO comes as a good professional then the bank stock price will again go up as the bank is profitable but it will take time as the sentiments are damaged.So it is better to wait till the stock consolidated and starts upward journey than catching a falling dagger.But it is definitely on my radar for buying once I know how deep is the problem.

Smart_trade

 

[cinderblock]

70 Rs premium on NF. When was the last time that happened?

 

[john302928]

This is one of the high probability counts on Banknifty. we have red wave c on the downside might be due ,before the breakout or red wave c might have ended at the red wave A markedand it might give breakout straightaway. I am biased towards former. we might have surprising rally in Banknifty today second half but if it breaks the low of blue wave (c) then things will be little late as it might take my previous count
View attachment 28806

update on 28 sep 2018 @ 9.59pmThere are probabilities for Banknifty to take this shape before reversal. so approximately 200-300 points fall from cmp zone of 25100. but if it breaks tentative reversal place then we should be alert that banknifty might be reversing and if it crosses reversal confirmation place then reversal is confirmed. looks to me it might fall for 200-300 points. but lets see

Update @ 11.27am. though price came bit closer to tentative reversal area, there is no sign of reversal as of now. cmp 25179 and still it has got more than 300 points down left.looks like so.But by any means if it breaks the reversal confirmation or tentative reversal sign then we can gain confidence on reversal because if it breaks tentative reversal signa then it will be come leading diagonal on the upside with reversal confirmation and if it not then it will become a triangle and one more leg of 300 points fall might come.lets see
Update @ 11.57am. Tentative reversal sign has broken. So need to keep an eye on wave progress for next couple of hours in bullish sentiment. I would like to move the reversal confirmation line from current zone of 25444 to 25512. Because that would help me to keep option open for complicated triangle with respect to bearish sentiment.Because I am still biased for one more leg of fall until it is breaking 25512

 

[john302928]

Be cautious on JNSP. Jindal steel & Power cmp 214.6 and it might fall below 170-160 in soon.This is just my view

Stay cautious on Tatamotors as well. I am not yet quite sure whether it will crash or not but momentum is strongly down good chances of 50% correction from cmp zone of 228.This is just my personal view based on my analysis and I could be wrong as well.

 

[timepass]

Be cautious on JNSP. Jindal steel & Power cmp 214.6 and it might fall below 170-160 in soon.This is just my view View attachment 28846

Thanks. I am interested in this stock, even traded small qnty today. But this one is too volatile for intraday action using BO.

 

[john302928]

Alert: IDFC. It is going to fall atleast in the coming days 50% from cmp 41 zone.Triangle is breaking out.Be safe.This is just my view

Alert:SAIL It might fall atleast in the coming days to weeks 50% from cmp 71 zone.looks like pretty longterm final couple of legs are due and it might not be worth atleast for next 2.5-4 years.This just my view

Update @ 1.14pm. There is a sign of weakness in Tatasteel cmp 582.6. It is likely to trigger the fall.If it does then it is going to be hell. First 490 then 190 (likely)

 

[Smart_trade]

Importance of Asset Allocation in investing.

Asset allocation is very important in investments. Though there are many asset classes we will consider equity and debt here.Markets never go up in a straight line and it takes a path of rallies and declines. From time to time the equity markets become stretched and it still keeps going up. In such a time we have to take help of asset allocation.At this point we have to ask a question that though we dont know when the market tops out but will the market at this level likely to give a 1 year forward return of over 8-10 % and if the answer is negative we have to book profits and move into debts. If not all the portfolio atleast 40-50 % of the portfolio needs to be booked and moved into debt mutual fund which will earn some returns while the money stays there and that will come handy when the market corrects and return to mean or go below it.

As of today we are still expensive and the market needs to shed 5 to 7 more % to become attractive to buy. Some stocks are coming in buy zones as they have had large retracements.

The above can be achieved by either traders judgement or by a process driven approach of PE and price to book.....process driven approach does not take into account improving fundamentals such as growth coming back etc....so the combination of process and judgement works the best.....it helps in protecting the wealth plus gives comfort to the investor.

Same holds good on downside also.....below the average valuations we should be buying and deploying our money and converting our debt holding into equity.....

Smart_trade

 

[pravi_kanth]

Is it better to exit Yes bank as I bought at the levels of 241. PB is 1.7 now but market noise is beating it down.

 

[Smart_trade]

Prashant Jain of HDFC AMC says that HDFC funds have no exposure to ILFS.....

Smart_trade

 

[travi]

Prashant Jain of HDFC AMC says that HDFC funds have no exposure to ILFS.....

Smart_trade

True, but along with that. what I see is that the lenders will take more conservative approach, and this will impact earnings for almost everyone.

Now, borrowers will queue up outside every office, no shortage of them but "to lend or not to" is the short term crisis that's hanging around.
If the lending process is hampered, neither borrower nor lender makes progress and lesser earnings for both.