General Trading Chat

[timepass]

Guys, I downloaded some data from TradeTiger and found that :

from 09-11-2023 to 04-04-2000 :

1) Nifty had 5930 working days
2) Of these, there were 2727 DOWN days
3) There were 3203 UP days

So, if one purchased some Nifty ETF only on the DOWN days, he would have a hefty profit without thinking much, right ?

Further, if he opted for IDCW option in his fund, there would be some money home and price appreciation, right ?

Is this a workable strategy ?

 

[Nish]

Guys, I downloaded some data from TradeTiger and found that :

from 09-11-2023 to 04-04-2000 :

1) Nifty had 5930 working days
2) Of these, there were 2727 DOWN days
3) There were 3203 UP days

So, if one purchased some Nifty ETF only on the DOWN days, he would have a hefty profit without thinking much, right ?

Further, if he opted for IDCW option in his fund, there would be some money home and price appreciation, right ?

Is this a workable strategy ?

One Q !
How to conclude that down-days are over and market will bounce-back from a perticu;ar day ?

May be SIP or SWP work on averaging and not timing the market .

By the way, it seems you have some good spare money and want some perfect scheme for some handsom gains without worrying about slipages !

Some expert suggest 40-30-30 formula for staggard investment in diversified instruments like stocks, gold , debt instrument , property and little liquid funds !

Personally stopped stocks , but have some positions ( in family members a/c ) - in penny stocks like Idea-Voda type below Rs. 5/- on buy and forget basis !
Luckily most of them are trippled and more - but total basic purchase value is less than 60k !!

 

[Nish]

09 Nov 23
BN posible lvls for Study Purpose only ???
Pl do ur own study.

For 10 Nov 23 , same chart and levels apply - as on 9 Nov 23 !

 

[bottrade]

Is this a workable strategy ?

You're overthinking. I don't think there will be anything hefty with Index ETF.
On second thought, downloading the data and working out wouldn't take much time. Here are the numbers,
From 1995 to last week.
~46% of days closed in red. If you invested 1000/- on closing of those days, your total investment would be 33.4 lakhs and your current value of your investment is 2.75 crores, CAGR of 12%. I didn't include any withdrawal (aka IDCW or SWP). With any withdrawal, most likely returns would be less than growth fund.
Note: I used Nifty's price, not ETF's

 

[timepass]

? Freak trade in BNF. Check the low = 43355.55

 

[timepass]

You're overthinking. I don't think there will be anything hefty with Index ETF.
On second thought, downloading the data and working out wouldn't take much time. Here are the numbers,
From 1995 to last week.
~46% of days closed in red. If you invested 1000/- on closing of those days, your total investment would be 33.4 lakhs and your current value of your investment is 2.75 crores, CAGR of 12%. I didn't include any withdrawal (aka IDCW or SWP). With any withdrawal, most likely returns would be less than growth fund.
Note: I used Nifty's price, not ETF's

Agreed, may not give outstanding result with the index, but will it work with the MFs ?

e.g. Suppose I have my eye on some outperforming MF, so buying it on dips should be a good strategy ?

Let's take an example of this fund.

Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Enhanced Value ETF

https://money.rediff.com/mutual-fun...anced-value-etf---regular-plan/140517827/2066

I am not promoting this, but recently I have started with MFs, and have about 120 MFs in my portfolio. After experimenting, I will narrow it down and track them.

 

[timepass]

What's this ? USDINR is making all time highs

No one on the TV mentions USDINR these days.

 

[bottrade]

...
After experimenting, I will narrow it down and track them.

Diversifying your investment is fine and MF is one way of diversifying your investments in mulitple stocks. But 120 funds is beyond over diversifying, are you trying to get your name in Guiness record?
In my view, 12 - 15% from MF is good. Anything over 18-20% is impressive. I don't think there are many funds which have given over 25% in the long run.
You know Warren Buffet's CAGR is less than 25%, the man who made billions from stock market.

 

[timepass]

Guys, I downloaded some data from TradeTiger and found that :

from 09-11-2023 to 04-04-2000 :

1) Nifty had 5930 working days
2) Of these, there were 2727 DOWN days
3) There were 3203 UP days

So, if one purchased some Nifty ETF only on the DOWN days, he would have a hefty profit without thinking much, right ?

Further, if he opted for IDCW option in his fund, there would be some money home and price appreciation, right ?

Is this a workable strategy ?

One Q !
How to conclude that down-days are over and market will bounce-back from a perticu;ar day ?

May be SIP or SWP work on averaging and not timing the market .

By the way, it seems you have some good spare money and want some perfect scheme for some handsom gains without worrying about slipages !

Some expert suggest 40-30-30 formula for staggard investment in diversified instruments like stocks, gold , debt instrument , property and little liquid funds !

Personally stopped stocks , but have some positions ( in family members a/c ) - in penny stocks like Idea-Voda type below Rs. 5/- on buy and forget basis !
Luckily most of them are trippled and more - but total basic purchase value is less than 60k !!

You're overthinking. I don't think there will be anything hefty with Index ETF.
On second thought, downloading the data and working out wouldn't take much time. Here are the numbers,
From 1995 to last week.
~46% of days closed in red. If you invested 1000/- on closing of those days, your total investment would be 33.4 lakhs and your current value of your investment is 2.75 crores, CAGR of 12%. I didn't include any withdrawal (aka IDCW or SWP). With any withdrawal, most likely returns would be less than growth fund.
Note: I used Nifty's price, not ETF's

So, I did some more work on this and came up with something else.

Suppose I don't invest on the first red candle, but do invest if the subsequent candles are red. So, the number of investment days comes down to 1360 out of 5930 days.

For the sake of argument,

Assume 1 unit of Nifty MF = Nifty closing / 100 (at present Niftybees = 214)

Scene 1 :
If I purchased 1 unit of Nifty MF on such a day, I would have 1360 units of NiftyMF at an average price of Rs. 69.11, as against CMP of Rs. 193

Original investment of Rs. 94000 would increase to Rs. 2,64,000

Scene 2 :
If I purchased 1 unit of Nifty MF on every down day, I would have 2730 units of NiftyMF at an average price of Rs. 67.94

Original investment of Rs. 1,85,000 would increase to Rs. 5,27,000

How does this compare with FD in 24 years ? Not good, I guess, but still.

 

[timepass]

Diversifying your investment is fine and MF is one way of diversifying your investments in mulitple stocks. But 120 funds is beyond over diversifying, are you trying to get your name in Guiness record?
In my view, 12 - 15% from MF is good. Anything over 18-20% is impressive. I don't think there are many funds which have given over 25% in the long run.
You know Warren Buffet's CAGR is less than 25%, the man who made billions from stock market.

Most of these have Rs. 100 investment.

1 has investment of Rs. 10000, 2 have Rs. 5000, 2-3 have Rs. 1000, and about 5 have Rs. 500

Most are for IDCW plan.

I define "Returns" as moneyback, disposable income, not money in the demat.

Let's see which ones put the most money back in my bank