Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

[prada]

I hold no positions in nifty at the moment. Will assess the market after the events and post an update this weekend. If you are holding positions, it is always well advised to either square off or hedge your positions before any event.

Dear prada sir, one should keep the longs or square/hedge the position in light of upcoming events ?

 

[SEVEN STAR]

bottom formation at 5217.. Res.. 5272.. 5306 spot
holding my long positions expecting big move on monday..
Tomorrow weekly close above 5270 positive.

trend reversed to positive at 5217 bottom.
Booked(210 points) 50% of my longs here at 5427.. Will hold my positional longs with sl at 5270 on closing basis.

 

[smartrader]

Hi Prada,

This is a liquidity fuelled rally which does not make any sense at all. But the fact is that markets are relentlessly moving up. Indian markets have not moved as much as SP500 due to fiscal indiscipline & no one knows how long UPA will continue to ignore this due to its own political compulsions.
I feel that old logic regarding elliott wave & kondratef etc will have to kept on back burner for the time being because all these cycles relate to free markets. What is happening in international markets today is anything but free. No doubt eventually folly of Fed, super mario etc will catch up but until then it is better to go with the flow of the liquidity.
I am not in the least saying you are wrong. Far from it. I too hold negligible longs in my portfolio. For trading at the moment I have couple of NF lots which I have been holding since recent lows & I have booked these today at eod simply because I am not convinced we should be going up. I prefer to take position if required in the morning depending on market situation.
Point I am trying to make is can we ignore this liquidity fuelled rally & till what level this rally take us before laws of gravity catch up?
Looking forward to your views.

 

[SEVEN STAR]

"every bull markets start at a pessimistic note
and all bear markets begins from extreme optimistic note"

 

[Bewinner]

Hi Dear Prada,

First of all I would like to thank you for starting this wonderful thread and I am taking inch by inch of it....Really loving your analysis, your point of view, your concern related market etc... Really a wonderful TA thread started after a long time....

http://www.traderji.com/derivatives/72776-incisive-nifty-trend-analysis-22.html

My question is your probable target regarding nifty which is 5446(hope this is not spot) is reached...so what next? Should we look for short/short now or wait and watch where it would go? your views please...

second question is if you have time would you please share your view on BHEL as the scrip is heavily beaten and mkt moved up but it did not.

Thanks a ton in advance.

 

[Bewinner]

http://www.traderji.com/derivatives/72776-incisive-nifty-trend-analysis.html#post713691

sorry the link would be this

 

[smartrader]

Cheap money floating around due to various QEs, operation Twist by FED, ECB bond purchase etc is not able to address the core issue. Anyway for now enjoy the ride. No point fighting with FED, ECB etc since they literally have unlimited capacity to print money. In the end debt will catch up though. Each one is hoping it will not happen during their term.

India also appears to be heading towards Kondratieff winter to which Prada has also referred to. You may refer to http://www.indiacharts.com/vwave/KFW.htm.

Thks

 

[Anillal]

Hi Prada,

This is a liquidity fuelled rally which does not make any sense at all. But the fact is that markets are relentlessly moving up. Indian markets have not moved as much as SP500 due to fiscal indiscipline & no one knows how long UPA will continue to ignore this due to its own political compulsions.
I feel that old logic regarding elliott wave & kondratef etc will have to kept on back burner for the time being because all these cycles relate to free markets. What is happening in international markets today is anything but free. No doubt eventually folly of Fed, super mario etc will catch up but until then it is better to go with the flow of the liquidity.
I am not in the least saying you are wrong. Far from it. I too hold negligible longs in my portfolio. For trading at the moment I have couple of NF lots which I have been holding since recent lows & I have booked these today at eod simply because I am not convinced we should be going up. I prefer to take position if required in the morning depending on market situation.
Point I am trying to make is can we ignore this liquidity fuelled rally & till what level this rally take us before laws of gravity catch up?
Looking forward to your views.

It was liquidity fuelled rally that is why it didn't make any sense. It can not be even called rally as there was no systematic buying by the biggies. It was more like an HFT algo stampede covering shorts and hitting the SLs. Telltale signs were there. Stock futures premium was going yo-yo. Some stocks were rising like rocket others were dead. Nifty as a whole was rising but banknifty went stagnant relatively speaking. The king SBI remained below 1880 and yesbank hit 337 from 329 in minutes. Banking sector as a whole is the heart and soul of any stock market and if it is not rising that means fundamentally market is weak therefore is not attractive to long term investors. And that is true. 95% of big companies of India Inc are struggling to maintain status quo. Hardly any real growth. The revenue might be up here and there but gross and operating profits are not in step, particularly the net profit which on average is declining. The ROE is around lowly 10-15% but D/E is going higher. On top politically we are having uncertain times besides many other problems. Put all twos and fours together and you will see India going bull has remote chances.

 

[prada]

Hi Smartrader, Belonging to the 'old school of thought' it is hard to convince myself that this ongoing rally will be durable. I have always been a long term investor in the market and have always looked at entry points which would allow me to have a good night's sleep , not worried about tomorrow. I'm sure we will get a much better entry point wherein stocks will be dirt cheap and will have no takers in the next few months. I prefer staying out of this 'go-go' market and rather buy USD on dips. Technically if 5450 is taken out 5505 is the target and Nifty might climb to 5850-5900 if 5630 is taken out but the environment is too uncertain to be decisive. Tipping point is not too far away. Pessimism is the emerging point of a bull market as rightly claimed by one of our members but only time will unveil the reality.

Hi Prada,

This is a liquidity fuelled rally which does not make any sense at all. But the fact is that markets are relentlessly moving up. Indian markets have not moved as much as SP500 due to fiscal indiscipline & no one knows how long UPA will continue to ignore this due to its own political compulsions.
I feel that old logic regarding elliott wave & kondratef etc will have to kept on back burner for the time being because all these cycles relate to free markets. What is happening in international markets today is anything but free. No doubt eventually folly of Fed, super mario etc will catch up but until then it is better to go with the flow of the liquidity.
I am not in the least saying you are wrong. Far from it. I too hold negligible longs in my portfolio. For trading at the moment I have couple of NF lots which I have been holding since recent lows & I have booked these today at eod simply because I am not convinced we should be going up. I prefer to take position if required in the morning depending on market situation.
Point I am trying to make is can we ignore this liquidity fuelled rally & till what level this rally take us before laws of gravity catch up?
Looking forward to your views.

 

[dinesh92]

PraDa sir if possible can you tell that how to determined these nifty level