Monk,
We are not equipped with all information to decide whether Prada is right or wrong. Let us not do that. He is free to take contrary position if he has sufficient resources to withstand if Nifty actually goes to 5850.
We can only tell him that it is too risky and that we are concerned. He may be proved right if Market actually falls from here.
We are not equipped with all information to decide whether Prada is right or wrong. Let us not do that. He is free to take contrary position if he has sufficient resources to withstand if Nifty actually goes to 5850.
We can only tell him that it is too risky and that we are concerned. He may be proved right if Market actually falls from here.
Monk,
Positional traders cannot have a small SL. For every 100 point of loss, their expectancy of profit will will atleast 300 points. If you will note charts of specific scripts, all trending stocks correct. Experienced traders do short high momentum scripts which have moved far too away from their moving average as they eventually have to return to the mean.
Positional traders cannot have a small SL. For every 100 point of loss, their expectancy of profit will will atleast 300 points. If you will note charts of specific scripts, all trending stocks correct. Experienced traders do short high momentum scripts which have moved far too away from their moving average as they eventually have to return to the mean.
Well said sir. Very level headed response. By the way I must say if one could somehow have median value of 5 weekly candles making up April 2011 cluster then Mr Parda's choice of 5807 spot is not a bad deduction. If I were to take Mr Prada's like call then 5807 should have been the starting point for initiating shorts till 5825. Then 5850 would not only serve as an ideal SL but also could very well be the TP for going long all the way to 6200 with SL 5805. But then each to his own as they say. We all trade as per our individuality, our personal convictions and observations and accound size. 
Hello Reggie sir. It has been a while since I last saw your post. I am afraid I have to disagree a little with your view. Positional trading does not automatically mean wide SL. Rather a good positional trader would be so thorough in tracking the market before entering that he would not wait till 100 points SL. In just 30-40 points away from his entry he would realise his mistake and get out. Anyway I believe in present times it is bad math to equate reward with your risk. This whole concept of rigid R:R belongs to pre-computer era hence outdated. Besides this R:R thing look great only on paper believe me. In reality a trader has control only on risk. It is the market that decides the reward.
Anil Saab, sure we all have our opinions which have differing degrees of probabilities of being true. The market will finallly decide to turn out one way or the other, but it is not the question of who is right or wrong in the end, but who made the money.
The following is the background for my views :
FII's have invested 84,300 odd crore rupees in equity this year. Of this, 38,184 crores (45%) has been invested in the first two months. Hence, in my opinion FII's are in the money.
From 2nd Jan, to 21st Feb. the index moved from 4,675 to 5,560 a total of 885 point, a gain of approx. 20% only to correct back to 4,860 i.e giving up 80% of the gains!!
Looking back, one would not have seen any reason for the market to correct to this extent, GAAR and economic policy paralysis notwithstanding. Infact, The DOW has only been gathering steam and chugging ahead.
In the present scenario where the government has now initiated reforms while not having a comfortable majority, and Mamta Banarjee threatening no confidence motion the state of affairs hardly inspires confidence.
Our market has moved positively second time this June from 4,800 to 5,790 i.e 990 points (21%) with two healthy corrections of 300 and 200 points. However the latest move from 5,220 to 5,790 i.e 570 points (11%) has come with two big gaps that are not filled in on the charts.
In my view we can expect to see Nifty peaking at anytime, but most probably before end Oct. max. or end Nov. There is a previous history to this. Nifty moved from 4,950 in Jun. (2010) to 6,230 in mid. Oct. A brief correction followed and a peak of 6,330 (28%) was made in 1st week of Nov. and it was downhill thereafter.
FII's have to show profits for the yearend, and have interest in streching the market to the max possible before cashing in.
In my view the USD/INR rate has to get a bit more favourable and it will be right time for the FII's to exit the party.
Personally, I am looking to encash my investment portfolio, even if a bit early. As far as trading is concerned, I will be long/short in specific stocks as the charts dictate.
While on the question of stop loss, I totally agree with you that positional trading does not automatically mean wide SL. Positional trading however involves playing for a bigger time frame and larger reward. It requires patience and a stomach for seeing market moving against your position in the short run, to eventually give way to larger gains long term.
I guess this is how comitted, persistent and successful traders evolve. And it does not surprise me that they are in a minority.
I personally enjoy reading and digesting Prada's view, as I try to understand the market from a positional traders outlook. Also there is another trader (NiftyTrader) who also post his EOD trades which are so refreshingly profitable and different from so many others. Reading both, has influenced my trading style.
My two bits worth.....
The following is the background for my views :
FII's have invested 84,300 odd crore rupees in equity this year. Of this, 38,184 crores (45%) has been invested in the first two months. Hence, in my opinion FII's are in the money.
From 2nd Jan, to 21st Feb. the index moved from 4,675 to 5,560 a total of 885 point, a gain of approx. 20% only to correct back to 4,860 i.e giving up 80% of the gains!!
Looking back, one would not have seen any reason for the market to correct to this extent, GAAR and economic policy paralysis notwithstanding. Infact, The DOW has only been gathering steam and chugging ahead.
In the present scenario where the government has now initiated reforms while not having a comfortable majority, and Mamta Banarjee threatening no confidence motion the state of affairs hardly inspires confidence.
Our market has moved positively second time this June from 4,800 to 5,790 i.e 990 points (21%) with two healthy corrections of 300 and 200 points. However the latest move from 5,220 to 5,790 i.e 570 points (11%) has come with two big gaps that are not filled in on the charts.
In my view we can expect to see Nifty peaking at anytime, but most probably before end Oct. max. or end Nov. There is a previous history to this. Nifty moved from 4,950 in Jun. (2010) to 6,230 in mid. Oct. A brief correction followed and a peak of 6,330 (28%) was made in 1st week of Nov. and it was downhill thereafter.
FII's have to show profits for the yearend, and have interest in streching the market to the max possible before cashing in.
In my view the USD/INR rate has to get a bit more favourable and it will be right time for the FII's to exit the party.
Personally, I am looking to encash my investment portfolio, even if a bit early. As far as trading is concerned, I will be long/short in specific stocks as the charts dictate.
While on the question of stop loss, I totally agree with you that positional trading does not automatically mean wide SL. Positional trading however involves playing for a bigger time frame and larger reward. It requires patience and a stomach for seeing market moving against your position in the short run, to eventually give way to larger gains long term.
I guess this is how comitted, persistent and successful traders evolve. And it does not surprise me that they are in a minority.
I personally enjoy reading and digesting Prada's view, as I try to understand the market from a positional traders outlook. Also there is another trader (NiftyTrader) who also post his EOD trades which are so refreshingly profitable and different from so many others. Reading both, has influenced my trading style.
My two bits worth.....
Hello Reggie sir. It has been a while since I last saw your post. I am afraid I have to disagree a little with your view. Positional trading does not automatically mean wide SL. Rather a good positional trader would be so thorough in tracking the market before entering that he would not wait till 100 points SL. In just 30-40 points away from his entry he would realise his mistake and get out. Anyway I believe in present times it is bad math to equate reward with your risk. This whole concept of rigid R:R belongs to pre-computer era hence outdated. Besides this R:R thing look great only on paper believe me. In reality a trader has control only on risk. It is the market that decides the reward.
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