Linkon's guppyBB system...!

[linkon7]

15 min tells us that
accl band low is now at 5481.40
means bar piercing this level high+ filter is our reversal...

3 min tells us to lower our TSL to 5458.70

Action : TSl shifted to 5458.70

 

[linkon7]

TLS shifted to 5455.70

15 min aclc band at 5463...

 

[linkon7]

got my accl band penetrating bar..marked wt white triangle...
after this bar closes...
the high + 2 of this bar is my exit...

since trend is down... and strong.. we avoid taking long...

 

[sumosanammain]

Linkon,

Have you calculated the Expectancy of this system over 100 trades? And any idea on what the SQN number would be for this system?

 

[linkon7]

5446.80 is the bar high... 5448.80 is sl..for the short...

atleast day will end on a positive note now...

 

[linkon7]

Linkon,

Have you calculated the Expectancy of this system over 100 trades? And any idea on what the SQN number would be for this system?

its very high... and very satisfactory...!

and every time minor tweaks in the rules is done... the setup is tested again for the last 9 months... Once the complete set of rules is finalised... only then i'll post the system... till now..the current trades at placed for the benefit of Anant, since he is doing the trade management coding...

So far only the entry rules are finalised... the stop loss is almost done... the exit needs a lot of rework... the add on rules are not finalised...

Once these rules are finalised..then we can optimise the setup....! That step is very vital...as so far the filter... the em34, em89, BB settings.. etc are taken on the basis of my own experience... Need to find out which set of numbers produce best results...

 

[linkon7]

Linkon,

Have you calculated the Expectancy of this system over 100 trades? And any idea on what the SQN number would be for this system?

need some help on how to find the std dev number for finding the sqn...

SO far i am working on the expectancy as suggested by AW10 in a post long time back...

 

[sumosanammain]

need some help on how to find the std dev number for finding the sqn...

SO far i am working on the expectancy as suggested by AW10 in a post long time back...

The older formulas for expectancy have been phased out. The formulas given in the previous books of Tharp have been nullified by him in his last book. The latest formula divides the number obtained by previous formula by the average risk per trade, which is assumed to be equal to 1 R.

And if the risk per trade is unknown, the std deviation can be massive, driving down the SQN number into a much smaller range, making it unviable to apply position sizing techniques to such a system.

The same goes towards High R Multiple profits
And if the number of trades is kept to 50 for calculating SQN , its better. And the trades that you assume as your samples, should have a mix of all 6 types of markets. And if you dont have that in continuous form, like the mkts are trending for 2 months, then you need to take another 50 trades from a non volatile sideways range, and calculate the expectancy and std dvn and the SQN number for that kind of market

 

[linkon7]

3 min gave an add at 5445 at 12.15 bar...

but i failed to capitalise on it... it would have been ideal add..since sl was pathetically small...

 

[linkon7]

best thing i like about this system is that it makes me watch the screen every 3 min only... Thats why i have a timer on the afl... :thumb:

so far trade up date is :
morning short hold... with sl now at 5434.90

failed to add... on 3 min... tried to act smart..outguess the system... paid for it in terms of missed opportunity...