Linkon's guppyBB system...!

[linkon7]

The older formulas for expectancy have been phased out. The formulas given in the previous books of Tharp have been nullified by him in his last book. The latest formula divides the number obtained by previous formula by the average risk per trade, which is assumed to be equal to 1 R.

And if the risk per trade is unknown, the std deviation can be massive, driving down the SQN number into a much smaller range, making it unviable to apply position sizing techniques to such a system.

The same goes towards High R Multiple profits
And if the number of trades is kept to 50 for calculating SQN , its better. And the trades that you assume as your samples, should have a mix of all 6 types of markets. And if you dont have that in continuous form, like the mkts are trending for 2 months, then you need to take another 50 trades from a non volatile sideways range, and calculate the expectancy and std dvn and the SQN number for that kind of market

so far the focus has been in differentiating between sideways and trending... 6 type of days cannot be factored in yet and that's an area for
further development as i am waiting for another guy to code the open types and is a separate project by itself. merging this and that will make it a mammoth project by itself...

One unknown factor is the sgx rule as i cant find a source for sgx historical IEOD data.

so far system has provision of carry over of 50% of positions only if certain conditions are met.

I am looking into the flow traders methods to see if the add on rules they follow is better than my 3 min addon...

I wish i had more helping hands on this project but most traders are already happy with their systems and some of the strugglers just want to make money and dont focus on trade logic anyway.

I have already mentions the trade logic in this thread and yet to see anyone join the dots to complete the picture... everyone is waiting for the afl... and they wont get it till i finish the rules... Its sad...! but i cant help it...!

 

[linkon7]

exited short at 5426...

re entry trigger placed at 5407.10

 

[linkon7]

short trigger placed at 5453.80

market is sideways with negative bias...

 

[linkon7]

short trigger placed at 5453.80

market is sideways with negative bias...

short triggered...

now waiting for bar piercing 5472... high of that bar + 2 is reversal

 

[linkon7]

sl now at 5480

 

[linkon7]

sl now at 5480

sl hit...reversed... to long...!

 

[Smart_trade]

I am looking into the flow traders methods to see if the add on rules they follow is better than my 3 min addon...
.

!

Dear Linkon,

You are developing a 3 min method and comparing its adds with 30 flow method adds........it will give wrong results as you are comparing apples with oranges......

You must compare flow traders' 5 min intraday flow ( you will have access to it later) to pick up ideas on how we add there and how we reverse......till writing of this post we had only 2 trades....one short in the opening bar.....with 2-3 adds....cover all and long at 5434......already sitting in long position with 2 adds.......both trades superbly profitable.......

If you compare wrong things....you will soon come to the conclusion that flow methods don't work and flow guys will be laughing their way to the bank........

Best wishes,

Smart_trade

 

[linkon7]

sl now al 5470.90...

Its one of those washing machine days..when price reverses every now and then...
all we get is a vortex that sucks sl...

 

[linkon7]

Dear Linkon,

You are developing a 3 min method and comparing its adds with 30 flow method adds........it will give wrong results as you are comparing apples with oranges......

You must compare flow traders' 5 min intraday flow ( you will have access to it later) to pick up ideas on how we add there and how we reverse......till writing of this post we had only 2 trades....one short in the opening bar.....with 2-3 adds....cover all and long at 5434......already sitting in long position with 2 adds.......both trades superbly profitable.......

If you compare wrong things....you will soon come to the conclusion that flow methods don't work and flow guys will be laughing their way to the bank........

Best wishes,

Smart_trade

ST-da,

If anyone believes that flow methods doesnt work... than that guy is an idiot and you have all the right to suspect quality of that one sperm cell that managed to beat millions at that historical race...

Its not a flow vrs my method... The 2 systems are apples and oranges. The two methods are very different in approach... FLow doesnt predict the market and lets market dictate the profit it wants to give. Mine is more of a predictive model based on retracement. Flow waits for a pivot break for entry and mine is pre-fixed entry based on BB. On a nice trend day, flow guys adds with pivot break, while my system waits for retracement in 3 min TF to time the add... flow followers know the exact stoploss of a trade as son as they enter. Mine is a wait for price reaction at a level and then use that level as stoploss...

My attempt is extract a few rules from the flow method and see if my system can benefit from that... Its never to demean a time tested money churner like the flow.

 

[linkon7]

ST-da..
you just gave me an ideal filter... need to work on it lets see...!