NG & Crude

[zabeen2004]

Crudeoil Analysis For Today.

Crude oil failed to test 6466 and started falling with volume selling on wednesday to test EMA but started picking up with good volumes yesterday after inventory data. Looks like Crudeoil is getting ready to test 6466 but that is were trend willl be decided I believe. Same bull and bear fight happened around 6150 levels and bull won. Now lets c who wins
One more important thing to note is Daily chart shows valid long setup per trading style 2 for only positional traders. Attached screenshot for your views. Post your suggestions and views....

NG Chart:

NG fell directly without respecting any important Fibo levels but finally holding near 23% retracement. It has also tested the trendline a possible pullback is expected till 305 levels but no volume support till now and it is finding very hard to hold 284 levels. Anyways it has closed above 284 levels for yesterday and today if it holds firm above that there is a possibility of going upper levels.
Remember today is Inventory for NG and forecast is Negative but MM's may push price up. Keep watching OI and Our system which will give some information on whether it may rise or fall. Using this system we may get a chance to predict inventory moves but its not so easy....

 

[zabeen2004]

Buy NG at 281 with SL 278 will post screenshot shortly

Took the trade based on heavy volume pickup expected upside target 284, 289.7

 

[ShawnMedia]

Google for Powerburn blog - it will help you keep a tab on NG fundamentals.. I Know we don't trade fundamentals - but can help on EIA report days.

 

[zabeen2004]

Google for Powerburn blog - it will help you keep a tab on NG fundamentals.. I Know we don't trade fundamentals - but can help on EIA report days.

Thanks Shawn for sharing your views. I will be using FF/investing/EIA to get data's for inventory releases on every thursday. Can you throw some more lights on how to read the blog effectively for fundamental analysis.

 

[ShawnMedia]

Thanks Shawn for sharing your views. I will be using FF/investing/EIA to get data's for inventory releases on every thursday. Can you throw some more lights on how to read the blog effectively for fundamental analysis.

TT Mt4,

I'm no way an expert in fundamentals - but will try and explain what the site Offers:

FUndamentally they calculate injection ( Addition of NG) & WIthdrawal ( usage for heating & electricity generation) - based on some models and publish the data on a daily basis.

THey also account the following:

• Rig Count
• Active power generators using NG
• Wether forecast

Based on these they project inventory withdrawal of NG which they say is -97 for the past week. WHICH IS VERY BEARISH.


Official estimates are - 107. Actual will be posted by EIA at 9PM today.

Other than that they have info on average weather for US regions, which you must have noted already. We will put their data to test now in couple hours and see how their forecast is!!

 

[Tamil trader]

Fundamental Analysis never works for crude oil. They are just supporting to technical analysis. That's all

 

[ShawnMedia]

Fundamental Analysis never works for crude oil. They are just supporting to technical analysis. That's all

No arguing that TT. Crude Oil fundamentals are just a reaction and they dont set the trend. In many cases NG inventory report and weather change plays a vital role in trend reversal.

 

[zabeen2004]

Fundamental Analysis never works for crude oil. They are just supporting to technical analysis. That's all

TT I requested Shawn to share his views to see how Fundamental analysis works in NG as I have never done that and it would be more helpful for thread readers as well. NG inventory data has proved nearly 60%+ accuracy on trend changer. Anyways I always ride the trend based on price, volume and SR.
Again Thanks Shawn & TT for your views

 

[zabeen2004]

I believe NG inventory is going to be very hard to predict for today. Volume buyers on lows and selling on highs per GCI which is proved to be accurate comparing to others. It is finding very hard to hold below or above the Yesterday lows.

Zabeen, Shawn can post your views on inventory move pls expectations.

 

[ShawnMedia]

Very hard to predict NG's movements today - both technically and fundamentally. My guess is MM are clearing out stop losses on both the sides by wild swings.. if powerburn is accurate we will see heavy sell-off today ... if its close we might see some spike owing to arctic blasts early next week. Just my view.