NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ
- Thread starter healthraj
- Start date
- Tags nifty options chain raj oat
SGX Nifty is a CFD (Contract for difference) which is slightly different from a futures contract.
Because it is a CFD, there are actually 2 contracts which are almost traded throughout the day (for around 16 hours each day to be precise).
What you are talking about is the SGX T Contract which closed 21 points down but it is always continued by the T+1 contract which is being traded even at this time (10:40 PM) our time.
The T+1 contract is traded from around 4:15 PM to 11:30 PM Indian standard time.
As of now, the T+1 contract is trading at 5686 (64 points down from yesterdays close i.e. 5750)
Because it is a CFD, there are actually 2 contracts which are almost traded throughout the day (for around 16 hours each day to be precise).
What you are talking about is the SGX T Contract which closed 21 points down but it is always continued by the T+1 contract which is being traded even at this time (10:40 PM) our time.
The T+1 contract is traded from around 4:15 PM to 11:30 PM Indian standard time.
As of now, the T+1 contract is trading at 5686 (64 points down from yesterdays close i.e. 5750)
FIIs are net short in Nifty as yet. But, are half-hearted
The last three moves started with FII taking 53K, 45K and 60K positions in a single day; clearly stating their intentions. Whereas, they have not made any such big commitment in the last down move or this up move. So, it appears as though they have not made up their minds. But, they will soon as the third week is about to get over. This is a long month with two weeks more to go.
So, much action is expected in the days to come.
It often happens that FII enter a move a little late, making the move all the more explosive.
Since April, Nifty crossed 200 EMA twice from below. And both times the move was swift. As though, the buyers have landed a bargain. It makes sense, since Weekly chart of Nifty is still in an uptrend, albeit a fag-end.
My narrative may sound bullishly biased as there is presently little sign of bears winning, but only a possibility.
The last three moves started with FII taking 53K, 45K and 60K positions in a single day; clearly stating their intentions. Whereas, they have not made any such big commitment in the last down move or this up move. So, it appears as though they have not made up their minds. But, they will soon as the third week is about to get over. This is a long month with two weeks more to go.
So, much action is expected in the days to come.
It often happens that FII enter a move a little late, making the move all the more explosive.
Since April, Nifty crossed 200 EMA twice from below. And both times the move was swift. As though, the buyers have landed a bargain. It makes sense, since Weekly chart of Nifty is still in an uptrend, albeit a fag-end.
My narrative may sound bullishly biased as there is presently little sign of bears winning, but only a possibility.
Another noticeable bullish move was that the OI table added a whooping 18L in OI at 5700 PE, increasing its OI by almost 40%! As a result, in the last week the base for this up-move shifted from 5400 to 5700.
So, I believe that even if there is a turn around the Longs will get a clear signal first.
Plus, GOI has decided to issue Bonds of Rs.22000 Crore on every Monday of the week. I don't know how much that will improve the sentiment, but yes... Mr.Rajan seems to be well received.
So, I believe that even if there is a turn around the Longs will get a clear signal first.
Plus, GOI has decided to issue Bonds of Rs.22000 Crore on every Monday of the week. I don't know how much that will improve the sentiment, but yes... Mr.Rajan seems to be well received.
1) Its not the GOI which issues treasury bonds, thats fundamentally wrong. Its only the Reserve bank which can "create/destroy" money.
2) When the RBI sells bonds worth 22,000 Crore, it is in effect sucking out 22,000 Crores of Rupees from the system which is in essence removing liquidity. That is bearish for the Stock market and bullish for the currency market. Know your economics first before interpreting it.
3) Rajan is not yet the RBI Governer. He will enter office on 4th September which is more than 3 weeks away.
4) It is my personal opinion that it is very difficult to interpret OI data from F&O. FII and Pros engage in complex hedges which are almost impossible to interpret. They may have a complex butterfly options strategy involving going long 1 call, short two calls and long another call. Apart from that they may hedge their futures with options. So its not possible to say what they are doing just by looking at the OI.
5) My own opinion is to keep it simple. Look at what the FII, DII are doing in the cash market because that is almost always their primary position in the market.
@OT
It is just pointless throwing a just rude post right back! It will never end.
But, I must clarify myself.
I said "Rajan is well received"... and is he not?
As a futures trader, I saw the market take a u turn from 5400 to 5700... 300 points from the day Rajan news was announced... and we have this gentleman teaching the diff betw RBI and GOI... clear case of splitting hair! He throws at me an exact date as if I couldn't google it if i wanted to win an argument...
Secondly, the sentiment was getting super bearish due to the currency collapse. So the GOV released the news to pacify the sentiment and control the fall. And Has it not? Nifty managed to hold at the support.
Point being, surely, short-term trading the Futures market is not a function of economics... but it is definitely a function of gauging the sentiment... and we all try to do that via whatever is important: FII OI, RBI credit policy, Intnl news and much thanks to Raj and you for introducing Options Table analysis to add to the cause... I see his page 50 times a day and contribute only if I have something solid.
Even if I don't agree with you and Raj... I don't start making patronizing comments... and pretend to be some fine-print reading economist who knows how to google!
It is just pointless throwing a just rude post right back! It will never end.
But, I must clarify myself.
I said "Rajan is well received"... and is he not?
As a futures trader, I saw the market take a u turn from 5400 to 5700... 300 points from the day Rajan news was announced... and we have this gentleman teaching the diff betw RBI and GOI... clear case of splitting hair! He throws at me an exact date as if I couldn't google it if i wanted to win an argument...
Secondly, the sentiment was getting super bearish due to the currency collapse. So the GOV released the news to pacify the sentiment and control the fall. And Has it not? Nifty managed to hold at the support.
Point being, surely, short-term trading the Futures market is not a function of economics... but it is definitely a function of gauging the sentiment... and we all try to do that via whatever is important: FII OI, RBI credit policy, Intnl news and much thanks to Raj and you for introducing Options Table analysis to add to the cause... I see his page 50 times a day and contribute only if I have something solid.
Even if I don't agree with you and Raj... I don't start making patronizing comments... and pretend to be some fine-print reading economist who knows how to google!
Fully agree with you, Jamit. When you said that the Rs 22,000 auction would boost sentiment, you were right since this move is expected to strengthen rupee which is the main reason spooking the markets. Its not about LIQUIDITY !!Atleast the RBI thinks that way !!:thumb:
And Rajan was definitely selected as a signal to the international observers, no doubt regarding that. Especially given the fact that Chidu would have preferred a Yes-man at the helm of RBI, this Rajan elevation must have been a very painful one for him.
I think we should spare a minute and think wht the fellow boarder is trying to articulate before bringing out the knives! People here fortunately do not have any ego issues when their arguments are countered, but the same can be done in a polite manner.
And Rajan was definitely selected as a signal to the international observers, no doubt regarding that. Especially given the fact that Chidu would have preferred a Yes-man at the helm of RBI, this Rajan elevation must have been a very painful one for him.
I think we should spare a minute and think wht the fellow boarder is trying to articulate before bringing out the knives! People here fortunately do not have any ego issues when their arguments are countered, but the same can be done in a polite manner.
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