NIFTY Options Trading by RAJ

[healthraj]

Options Analysis for 16-aug-13

It is a STRONG BEAR today.

MAX COI at 5600-5700 with pivot as 5655. So 50 points from 5655 has been taken by the BEARS.

The MAX OI at 5600-6000 with Pivot at 5791.

So my opinion is we might see a STRONG pull back to 5800 from here.

On Thursday I said that in the 60 minute timeframe there was a Wedge formation. So probably the Wedge is now LIVE on the downside with a pullback near 5600 levels.

With MAX OI near 5600-6000, Technically I don expect further down in this market. So Risky traders can buy 5900CE or 6000CE for cheaper prices

When we were tracking the OI for FII they had around 8.5L Puts LONG OI. Today when we see the square off around 8.5L on PE side, it confirms. So we can assume that FIIs have kind of finished with the Downside. They are already buying in Cash and Stocks Futures. Now the only thing pending is buying in Index Futures, which might happen today. But this is all my opinion based on my interpretation of the OI data.

 

[Option.Trader]

1) Its not the GOI which issues treasury bonds, thats fundamentally wrong. Its only the Reserve bank which can "create/destroy" money.



4) It is my personal opinion that it is very difficult to interpret OI data from F&O. FII and Pros engage in complex hedges which are almost impossible to interpret. They may have a complex butterfly options strategy involving going long 1 call, short two calls and long another call. Apart from that they may hedge their futures with options. So its not possible to say what they are doing just by looking at the OI.

Well it was a perfect set up... buy really out of money call options as hedge and you get 200 points of Nifty futures(shorted)..i didnt believe they did any exotic options... just led the sacrificial lamb to the altar .. btw i did the trade (short futures) @5695.. so yea.. each one to his views

 

[healthraj]

Options Analysis for 16-aug-13

It is a STRONG BEAR today.

MAX COI at 5600-5700 with pivot as 5655. So 50 points from 5655 has been taken by the BEARS.

The MAX OI at 5600-6000 with Pivot at 5791.

So my opinion is we might see a STRONG pull back to 5800 from here.

On Thursday I said that in the 60 minute timeframe there was a Wedge formation. So probably the Wedge is now LIVE on the downside with a pullback near 5600 levels.

With MAX OI near 5600-6000, Technically I don expect further down in this market. So Risky traders can buy 5900CE or 6000CE for cheaper prices

When we were tracking the OI for FII they had around 8.5L Puts LONG OI. Today when we see the square off around 8.5L on PE side, it confirms. So we can assume that FIIs have kind of finished with the Downside. They are already buying in Cash and Stocks Futures. Now the only thing pending is buying in Index Futures, which might happen today. But this is all my opinion based on my interpretation of the OI data.

Those who want to buy DEEP OTM Calls, Better buy in the September Series

 

[jamit_05]

For the past few sessions I have been noticing... that whenever market goes up... the India VIX withholds and goes down some.. corrects... And when market goes down it shoots up!

Big positions want to short...!

 

[jamit_05]

<.........................>

 

[healthraj]

NIFTY SPOT Pivots

BA- Buy Above
SB- Sell Below

30 min Timeframe. BA-5723 SB-5714 - Right now it is trending down - Triangle pattern.

60 min Timeframe. BA 5732. SB-5601 - Trend down - Wedge pattern.

This is the Pivots I was referring to in 60 min Timeframe , it was supposed to come down below 5732 and on Wednesday also I had took a Short at 5740 NF Levels. So if we have to go with the Technicals, The pullback is expected around 5600 Levels. So if it does not strongly above 5600, then we can expect another correction

 

[sabhlok_r]

This is the Pivots I was referring to in 60 min Timeframe , it was supposed to come down below 5732 and on Wednesday also I had took a Short at 5740 NF Levels. So if we have to go with the Technicals, The pullback is expected around 5600 Levels. So if it does not strongly above 5600, then we can expect another correction

and this pullback is also reflecting in the PE OI which is max @ 5600(60L) as compared to CE OI @ 5600(18.5L).... correct me if I am wrong in interpreting..

 

[healthraj]

In the 5min, 10min, 20min and 30min Timeframes the Major pivot Low is formed at 5573 SPOT and it is in the UP Trend.

So as long 5573 Holds you can Stay Long. If 5573 Breaks today then you can go Short for another 60 points.

The next resistance would be 5631 SPOT. So it would be slow Grind till 5631 because the Funds might be buying or Selling till 5631....

 

[VJAY]

Dear Raj,
One Q about OAT tool....is need to use GET FO VOLT every day?

 

[chintan786]

Is there is a possibility of this selling coming from Brokers trapped in NSEL fund pay out system. there is some rumors doing round right now.