Some of my forecasts

[Piratetrader]

Re: Eur/usd

Saif, your analytical skills are really very good but there are few things that are missing.
1) I always add What If Scenario to my trades and have an alternate plan.
2) Imp thing, you and Forexworld always say that when there is trendline break it must come back to trendline anyhow (some stmts like this). As a normal trade, it shud come back but it is not must. We need to readjust our trade if it doesnt come back and continue with that. There is never a must in trading, its only high probability.
3) You just want to get 20 pips profit or loss. So ur stops are pre-defined and lot is fixed. It should be other way round by position sizing. Sometimes profits need to be running when u know that the move is big.
4) You should be able to see when a trade go reverse against u and still be normal as if nothing has happened. The more u get irriated then more u r prone to make mistakes.

Try to be as conservative as possible. I am sure that you will come back with a double bang.

Paul,
Is it a good tactic that I concentrate only 5 pairs instead of all as I feel that I need to take it slow and understand more.

Regards
Raj

Regards
Raj

Thanks Raj bhai for explaining ! I appreciate it )) as for the 2nd point I don't know about the views of forex but that is the strict rule with any trend line break that I have learnt from Paul sir is that once broken a correction back to it will take place and then the reversal! no matter if it is not happening now but sooner or later it has to take place , It cannot be re-adjusted or let it go away the correction of the break has to get completed I am not saying it is a must maybe it can take weeks or even months but it goes that way

 

[Piratetrader]

Re: Eur/usd

Saif, you are making good progress on your methodology, but bankruptcy is around the corner if you don't get to step 2--money management.
Plus, how do you know for a fact that an exception to the rule does not happen and the USD/CHF breaks through the cloud.
I've also said it won't, but I am not right 100% of the time.
You need to protect yourself if you are wrong.
1-2% target? You are risking 100% with no stops.

You cited you hate your stop losses getting triggered. Would you not hate it more when there ends up being a sharp move against you and you bankrupt everything?

I could say more, but I'm trying to be nice. There is no excuse for not using proper money management in your trades. I can appreciate you being honest, and that is the only way to make progress, but no one has traded successfully without money management. You can't justify it.

HEllo sir ! I think that because Usd/chf is at the bottom of the weekly cloud and at the SD extreme with A strong R ahead with the stoch diverging pointing down in respect to the trend that was down I find that reversal are around the corner and the weekly kinjun should be met if the pair plans to go higher !The weekly was down from around 50-55 weeks or so
and it was burried way under the clouds and I knew there would be a gravitational pullback to the clouds sooner or later and it did happen , Now I expect the weekly kinjun to meet the requirment at 0.8200 a strong support for a trend change to the top of the cloud/200 day sma

As for the eur/usd I would also say sir that the pair is near the weekly Span-B with the SD extreme I would now expect a reversal to the upside ! just an example sir - this awesome thing sir your personally taught me many months ago about the gravity pullback I cannot find this on the basic of ichimoku written anywhere!

As you explained to me sir on august 3rd about the gravity of the clouds I applied it !Same thing happened with gbp/jpy I was long from 118.25 even although I don't trade this pair but the charts were looking so beautiful for a long entry because it was highly burried on the highest time frames under the clouds under the tenken and the kinjun with momentum highly oversold as I did not know the SD extreme that time but I am sure it must be at its extreme ! As it went sideways from 116 the momentum began to go north and I went long at 118 as I was confident that the gravity is acting I had a few fundamental reason as well to gain me confident ! so I went long at 118.25 and closed my trade on 125.83(weekly kinjun) I knew we would see a pullback to first the tenken then the kinjun and finnaly to the Span -B(which is due) I closed my trade on kinjun because It was A strong R and it the pair would bounce off and also it broke the weekly trend line so it has to be corrected and it did sir! as on the monthly basis I am 101% confident that we would see a move to the weekly Span -B followed by the monthly kinjun also but there are so many R to trade in between them !

Sir I to love these long trades I have again bought the euro/usd at 1.3490 ( looking for 1.3630 first, I know we are due for a correction to 1.3950 and I also know we could move higher but I plan target here first as it is the H4 kinjun/tenken) and I expect bounce off )and sold the usd/chf at 0.9130( 1st target daily Span-A second- weekly kinjun) ! I am holding them but Main thing sir the main problem for me sir remain the same that I am unable to find the place where to put my stop if something happened against the rule!

 

[Piratetrader]

Re: AUD/CHF additional note

Along with a lot of support, that fact you mentioned would be worth considering once price action gets there. What could be the overriding factor is the dominant TF. After all, channels get readjusted.

aud/usd Sir the pair finally made it there and reversed ! I don't think sir it can hold the upside move for long because the monthly kinjun appears to be good target 0.9554

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/usd

Raj, I agree with you.
I like the idea of you using 5 pairs to track for your trading. I track 26 of them, but basically use only 11 of them to trade with. The exception is the current short I am holding on the AUD/CHF.
I guess 20 pips profit is okay if you are day trading or scalping. Still, that depends on what out time preference is for a trade.

All TL's get corrected. We always prefer to see the more direct ones, such as cross the TL, and 2 candles later corrected, and then delete the TL, enter the trade and bag a boat load of pips.
Some TL corrections are more complex than others. There has been much conversation about the EUR/USD. Whew! That is complex! But, the correction is still forthcoming.

In knowing there will be a correction back to the TL does not make it a tradeable situation, in and of itself. The time to start looking for the trade is after the correction has been made. Until that happens, IMO, there are no trades.
The nice thing about TL's is that they can be used as a standalone. Kavima, in his thread, also shows that do a degree, because he uses almost exclusively his pitchforks, which are a type of TL; or, at least in viewing his thread, you certainly will be bale to spot the similarity.

Saif, your analytical skills are really very good but there are few things that are missing.
1) I always add What If Scenario to my trades and have an alternate plan.
2) Imp thing, you and Forexworld always say that when there is trendline break it must come back to trendline anyhow (some stmts like this). As a normal trade, it shud come back but it is not must. We need to readjust our trade if it doesnt come back and continue with that. There is never a must in trading, its only high probability.
3) You just want to get 20 pips profit or loss. So ur stops are pre-defined and lot is fixed. It should be other way round by position sizing. Sometimes profits need to be running when u know that the move is big.
4) You should be able to see when a trade go reverse against u and still be normal as if nothing has happened. The more u get irriated then more u r prone to make mistakes.

Try to be as conservative as possible. I am sure that you will come back with a double bang.

Paul,
Is it a good tactic that I concentrate only 5 pairs instead of all as I feel that I need to take it slow and understand more.

Regards
Raj

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/usd

Let me add to the previous comment that if a correction becomes too complex, then I just write it off. After all, there are bigger fish to fry than a 4-hour TL breaks back at 1.3954. Nevertheless, when the move to 1.3465 has been completed (It would have been earlier today if my WS2 did not get in the way.), it could bring on a very strong reversal.

Thanks Raj bhai for explaining ! I appreciate it )) as for the 2nd point I don't know about the views of forex but that is the strict rule with any trend line break that I have learnt from Paul sir is that once broken a correction back to it will take place and then the reversal! no matter if it is not happening now but sooner or later it has to take place , It cannot be re-adjusted or let it go away the correction of the break has to get completed I am not saying it is a must maybe it can take weeks or even months but it goes that way

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/usd

Nice observations!
I like to look at the clouds and even the tenken and kijun as a magnet. Once you look at the history, and you see a strong than usual drifting away from any of those points, then the move is about to happen.

HEllo sir ! I think that because Usd/chf is at the bottom of the weekly cloud and at the SD extreme with A strong R ahead with the stoch diverging pointing down in respect to the trend that was down I find that reversal are around the corner and the weekly kinjun should be met if the pair plans to go higher !The weekly was down from around 50-55 weeks or so
and it was burried way under the clouds and I knew there would be a gravitational pullback to the clouds sooner or later and it did happen , Now I expect the weekly kinjun to meet the requirment at 0.8200 a strong support for a trend change to the top of the cloud/200 day sma

As for the eur/usd I would also say sir that the pair is near the weekly Span-B with the SD extreme I would now expect a reversal to the upside ! just an example sir - this awesome thing sir your personally taught me many months ago about the gravity pullback I cannot find this on the basic of ichimoku written anywhere!

As you explained to me sir on august 3rd about the gravity of the clouds I applied it !Same thing happened with gbp/jpy I was long from 118.25 even although I don't trade this pair but the charts were looking so beautiful for a long entry because it was highly burried on the highest time frames under the clouds under the tenken and the kinjun with momentum highly oversold as I did not know the SD extreme that time but I am sure it must be at its extreme ! As it went sideways from 116 the momentum began to go north and I went long at 118 as I was confident that the gravity is acting I had a few fundamental reason as well to gain me confident ! so I went long at 118.25 and closed my trade on 125.83(weekly kinjun) I knew we would see a pullback to first the tenken then the kinjun and finnaly to the Span -B(which is due) I closed my trade on kinjun because It was A strong R and it the pair would bounce off and also it broke the weekly trend line so it has to be corrected and it did sir! as on the monthly basis I am 101% confident that we would see a move to the weekly Span -B followed by the monthly kinjun also but there are so many R to trade in between them !

Sir I to love these long trades I have again bought the euro/usd at 1.3490 ( looking for 1.3630 first, I know we are due for a correction to 1.3950 and I also know we could move higher but I plan target here first as it is the H4 kinjun/tenken) and I expect bounce off )and sold the usd/chf at 0.9130( 1st target daily Span-A second- weekly kinjun) ! I am holding them but Main thing sir the main problem for me sir remain the same that I am unable to find the place where to put my stop if something happened against the rule!

 

[adityasaraf007]

Hi Paul Sir, would like your views on this Nifty Chart that I posted over here at Linkon Sir's Ichimoku Thread

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: AUD/CHF additional note

I'm agreeing with you. The weakest looking currency (of the 8 majors) on the weekly charts if the AUD. This means that over coming weeks, the currency is about to get thrashed by pairing with all comers.

The yen is very interesting looking. It is the strongest on the weekly--which means yen crosses are going south over coming weeks-- but, it is the weakest on the monthly and 4-hour charts.
You get the idea the yen is in a transition period.

What I like about this whole scenario is that the Swissy looks, not as an individual currency, but relative to others. That being the case, I'm in for a boatload on my AUD/CHF position. It's up now by almost 200 pips and ready for more.

aud/usd Sir the pair finally made it there and reversed ! I don't think sir it can hold the upside move for long because the monthly kinjun appears to be good target 0.9554

 

[Piratetrader]

Re: AUD/CHF additional note

I'm agreeing with you. The weakest looking currency (of the 8 majors) on the weekly charts if the AUD. This means that over coming weeks, the currency is about to get thrashed by pairing with all comers.

The yen is very interesting looking. It is the strongest on the weekly--which means yen crosses are going south over coming weeks-- but, it is the weakest on the monthly and 4-hour charts.
You get the idea the yen is in a transition period.

What I like about this whole scenario is that the Swissy looks, not as an individual currency, but relative to others. That being the case, I'm in for a boatload on my AUD/CHF position. It's up now by almost 200 pips and ready for more.

Hello sir not sure what you meant sir , But in my simple words I think that the yen is going to get weaker in the coming weeks, months right? Oh Sir you could have notified me that you were selling aud/chf I would also have sold it but I just forgot to look at it, I just closed my eur/usd long on the touch of the H4 kinjun/tenken on 150 pips as I mentioned in my previous post it bounced of from there I am holding my usd/chf sell from 0.9130

 

[4xpipcounter]

Linkon's thread is quite active these days, and good for him! What I like about Linkon is he is an ichimoku pro. Having said that, IMO, you can get some diverse views on the usage of ichimoku from his approach and mine.

His thread would leave me too much to get caught up on with limited time. Let me cut to the chase and direct you to Nifty50 Future trends. Any daily updates I post over there. I will say that 5562 level will be hit but the move has been stalled. The daily TL is broken, and the market is headed lower.

Hi Paul Sir, would like your views on this Nifty Chart that I posted over here at Linkon Sir's Ichimoku Thread