Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

I'll share something at the risk of sound smug or conceited. Take it in the spirit it is intended with.

There is never a forecast I make that I do not sincerely feel it will turn out just the way I say it will, and that includes the ones with the clauses like "OTOH", "decision point", and other types of "if, then" statements.

Simply put, experience breeds confidence. Add some passion to the recipe, and it fertilizes confidence. Having said that, I've said many times I don't want anyone believing me. Check it out! That is why I do my Weekly Review every week. It brings accountability and honesty to the forecasting. After all, how many threads do we see started with good intents, and then vanish. Look at all of them just under the "forex" umbrella.
If you are interested in the ichimoku, do not believe what I say about it. Take the concepts and prove them live for yourself. Once again, there is accountability that is needed for the presenter, and a personal conviction for the learner.
I don't know what forecast you alluded to in your post, but that is why I say to not just take what I say at face value, but to prove it for yourself.

Within the context of all of that is why I think we are all here. I love talking about charts, forecasting, and all the math involved. I love making a forecast, then kicking back and watching it come to fruition. We're all here for different reasons. I trust we all have become mutual benefactors.

LOL, everything is set up for 4 hours from now. I'm just enjoying the small talk right now.

I know nothing will work 100%.

But i have seen exact figure from 4xpipcounter from where market made reversal & where are here

So i want to know what make hime very sure.

 

[trade4joisar]

Thanks for explanations.

If any of my statement hurts you then i am really sorry for that.

I believe in your ichimoku analysis. I have traded with your super confidence i.e. 5173 ( i short @ 5171), 5077 ( i short @ 5075) . So i know what i get with it.

Before this i have never seen anybody is so perfect :thumb:

So i don't have any doubt in ichimoku OR your analysis. I mean it.

My question was when you are super confidence, it works, so how you come to that point, that is the query.

So i am now waiting for your separate ichimoku document.

 

[4xpipcounter]

T4J, thanks for your kind words.

You never have to worry about offending me. Even though we are all internet friends, I think we have gotten to know each other really well, just through the venues of conversation and the main common denominator we all have as traders.
If someone asked me a question that was too personal, I would let them know. I'm the type to just shoot straight. No one has ever asked me one thing that is too personal.
I was even told I am cocky and really smug (Did not happen in this forum.). That's fine. That never offended me. People have a right to express their opinion. We talked, and then later he apologized. No big deal.

So, when you ask me where my confidence comes from, or whatever, I think those are legitimate questions.

I'm also glad I've won yours and many others' confidence. I am very outspoken, but I am also the type I have no ulterior motive, and would rather win your confidence through my actions-- in this case, forecasting and the proof through my knowledge base of trading.

In essence, I'm glad you have gotten good from the forecasts. My goal for this thread is that it will be the very best location on the internet for forecasting any and all markets.
BTW, I'm enunciating a simple goal I have. It is with all due respect to the many good threads in this forum that have been opened by very accomplished traders.

I'll do a Google doc on the ichimoku series when I have completed it.

Okay, the WR is next, and I'm half way done with the yearlies, half way done with the weeklies, and working on the monthlies. I'm going to have to fit the WF in there, too.

Thanks for explanations.

If any of my statement hurts you then i am really sorry for that.

I believe in your ichimoku analysis. I have traded with your super confidence i.e. 5173 ( i short @ 5171), 5077 ( i short @ 5075) . So i know what i get with it.

Before this i have never seen anybody is so perfect :thumb:

So i don't have any doubt in ichimoku OR your analysis. I mean it.

My question was when you are super confidence, it works, so how you come to that point, that is the query.

So i am now waiting for your separate ichimoku document.

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/USD: This market has got to make its move to 1.3280 and quickly. There is much R on the 4-hour. It is starting to run out of time and faces the possibility of another drop to 1.2710. The WS1 needs to hold at 1.2987. If it does, then it paves the way to at least the WR2 at 1.3164. If the spike favors the euro, then the WR3 at 1.3262 should be hit, and then the pair sees it way to higher ground at the start of 2012.

This pair went sideways to start the week, as it was not match for the R on the 4-hour. Finally, it was a huge hourly candle that took out the WS1 on the way to the dip for the week at 1.2864.

USD/JPY: Once again, not much to comment on. The pair is a sleeper, but one of these days it will awake and bust out. It appears if 77.88 hold, then the pair should hit the WR3 at 78.59.

77.88 did not hold, and the pair finally made a worthwhile move. I did start this version of the WR one hour before the market closed, but the dip to this point is 76.89.

GBP/USD: The strong bear finish that ended last week should continue. Circa 1.5544 needs to contain or the pair is headed to the WS2 at 1.5414 and even lower. As long as the former contains, then the pair is headed to WR2 at 1.5754 and higher.

The 1.5544 area did not contain, and it was a very strong hourly candle that took it out, as the dip was 1.5360.

USD/CHF: Either .9305 gets broken convincingly and we head to .9057 over coming weeks, or it contains and we head to the WR2 at .9448 this week. Many pairs are on the bubble this week, and this is one of them.

We did make it to the WR2 this week as the peak was .9469.

EUR/CHF: This pair appears ready for a correction back to the daily tenken at 1.2279, and then the reversal should take it even lower.

The tenken took a strong dip, and as it turned out it was hit, in spite of the peak being only 1.2237. The dip was 1.2133, as of this writing.

AUD/USD: The upside is limited for this pair to the top of the daily cloud at 1.0278. If we allow for any spike north, the WS2 at 1.0320 would be the limit. That should mark the beginning of a return to the monthly kijun at .9572. A convincing break of .9822 will signal a very quick move the rest of the way. That whole scenario will not unfold this week.

The pair found its way on top of the cloud, but the peak was 1.0268.

USD/CAD: This week the bottom of the 4-hour cloud at 1.0237 should be containment. The WS2 is 1.0075, so the top of the weekly cloud at 1.0051 could also be hit.

This has been a strange week, and this pair is no exception. The peak was 1.0267, but the 4-hour cloud did contain, as it was never hit. It peak at the time the bottom moved. Other than that, the pair went mostly sideways this week as the dip was only 1.1025.

NZD/USD: This pair still has the potential of breaking through the bottom of the daily cloud and heading to the top, as the cloud is not that thick. That would currently be .7924. As long as the top of the 4-hour cloud at .7669 contains this week, then we will come very close to the former mentioned mark.

Technically, the cloud did contain, as the pair played on the edge and the dip was .7651. This pair also decided to head east until Friday. By then it was too late to make any real progress north, as the peak was .7810.

EUR/GBP: It appears that no higher than the WR1 at .8398 can be expected this week, and then we should see another reversal to take it to the WS2 at .8305, maybe lower, as we see this pair continue to plod southbound towards .8167.

This is one of the slowest moving pairs, and it did anything but go sideways. It was highly volatile. It shot to the peak at .8420, and then hammered south. As of this writing, the dip for the week is .8327, so it still has a chance at the WS2.

EUR/JPY: With the exception of any minor correction we might see at the beginning of the week, the southward march should continue to at least the WS2 at 101.15. That area should be treated as a decision point.

The decision was made. It was a continuation that took the pair to the lowest low since December 2000 at 99.40.

GBP/JPY: Unlike its cousin, this pair would be a stretch to hit the WS1 at 121.06. As long as the WS1 contains, then this pair should be locked in with the WR2 at 122.92.

The WR1 at 122.29 was missed by 2 pips. It was ugly what this pair did to the WS1. Needless to say, it did not contain, as the hourly candle bridged the WS1>WS2, and the dip for the week was 119.25.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Things are progressing pretty good, so I got time for a story.

I've got many really good friends in our area. We know each other real well, and we know right where we all live (Figure of speech, but it is so literally.). I'm the type that knows no strangers, loves to cut up at parties, and many of us love practical jokes and just plain having fun.
My friend, who is our roofer (It's getting started tomorrow.), found out Tucker does not have the same sense of humor I have. We saw each other at Lowe's, and I was surprised it was the first time he ever met Tucker. He was commenting on how well behaved Tucker is. He was laying there in my arms just kicking back and so mellow looking. I explained to him Tucker is well behaved in public, but tends to be very possessive at home. His comment to that was that maybe Tucker is so quiet in public because he cannot get a word in edge wise (referring to my big mouth). Tucker lifted his head off my arms, ears perked up, and he started barking like crazy right there in the store. It was all aimed at my friend. It was like he understood every word, and my friend was offending me. He had to get him quiet.
One of the employees told me I was going to have to get the store mascot to be quiet. They've seen Tucker a few times.

Okay, back to work. (Or should I say back to my chart party.)

 

[4xpipcounter]

Yealy S&R's--2012

Pair R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.5031 1.4087 1.3519 1.2383 1.1815 1.0871
USD/JPY 87.02 82.42 79.65 74.11 71.34 66.74
GBP/USD 1.7030 1.6350 1.5941 1.5121 1.4712 1.4032
USD/CHF 1.2993 1.1357 1.0372 0.8402 0.7417 0.5781
EUR/CHF 1.5992 1.4254 1.3207 1.1113 1.0066 0.8328
AUD/USD 1.2048 1.1213 1.0711 0.9705 0.9203 0.8368
USD/CAD 1.1563 1.0948 1.0578 0.9836 0.9466 0.8851
NZD/USD 0.9657 0.8802 0.8287 0.7257 0.6742 0.5887
EUR/GBP 0.9132 0.8768 0.8549 0.8111 0.7892 0.7528
EUR/JPY 123.52 112.66 106.11 93.03 86.48 75.62
GBP/JPY 143.20 132.45 125.97 113.01 106.53 95.78
CHF/JPY 109.12 96.84 89.45 74.65 67.26 54.98
GBP/CHF 1.6864 1.5812 1.5179 1.3911 1.3278 1.2226
EUR/AUD 1.4407 1.3627 1.3158 1.2218 1.1749 1.0969
EUR/CAD 1.4881 1.4129 1.3676 1.2770 1.2317 1.1565
AUD/CAD 1.0979 1.0724 1.0570 1.0262 1.0108 0.9853
AUD/JPY 98.04 89.16 83.82 73.12 67.78 58.90
NZD/JPY 75.41 68.31 64.03 55.49 51.21 44.11
CAD/JPY 93.38 85.16 80.21 70.31 65.36 57.14
GBP/AUD 1.6999 1.6190 1.5703 1.4729 1.4242 1.3433
GBP/CAD 1.7038 1.6501 1.6177 1.5529 1.5205 1.4668
GBP/NZD 2.4256 2.2312 2.1141 1.8799 1.7628 1.5684
EUR/NZD 2.0115 1.8545 1.7599 1.5707 1.4761 1.3191
AUD/NZD 1.4697 1.3984 1.3554 1.2696 1.2266 1.1553
AUD/CHF 1.3132 1.1511 1.0534 0.8582 0.7605 0.5984
NZD/CHF 0.9508 0.8499 0.7891 0.6675 0.6067 0.5058
NZD/CAD 0.9449 0.8759 0.8343 0.7513 0.7097 0.6407
CAD/CHF 1.2810 1.1180 1.0199 0.8235 0.7254 0.5624
Gold 2295.24 1963.06 1762.95 1362.73 1162.62 830.44
Silver 52.90 41.45 34.54 20.74 13.83 2.38
Crude Oil 151.58 127.71 113.33 84.57 70.19 46.32
DIJA 15175.66 13834.66 13026.83 11411.17 10603.34 9262.34
DAX 9040.47 7611.12 6750.06 5027.94 4166.88 2737.53
Copper 11592.51 9749.95 8639.97 6420.03 5310.05 3467.49

 

[4xpipcounter]

I forgot the USD/INR, so it will be added separately, along with any other requests.

 

[4xpipcounter]

WEekly S&R's--010112

R3 r2 r1 s1 s2 s3
eur/usd 1.3178 1.3075 1.3013 1.2889 1.2827 1.2724
usd/jpy 78.12 77.56 77.22 76.54 76.20 75.64
gbp/usd 1.5866 1.5714 1.5622 1.5440 1.5348 1.5196
usd/chf 0.9538 0.9470 0.9428 0.9346 0.9304 0.9236
eur/chf 1.2264 1.2217 1.2188 1.2132 1.2103 1.2056
aud/usd 1.0437 1.0333 1.0270 1.0146 1.0083 0.9979
usd/cad 1.0350 1.0285 1.0246 1.0168 1.0129 1.0064
nzd/usd 0.7988 0.7890 0.7831 0.7713 0.7654 0.7556
eur/gbp 0.8423 0.8381 0.8355 0.8305 0.8279 0.8237
eur/jpy 102.16 100.99 100.28 98.86 98.15 96.98
gbp/jpy 122.52 121.14 120.32 118.66 117.84 116.46

 

[4xpipcounter]

Misc weekly S&R's--010112

Gold 1650.12 1610.53 1586.69 1538.99 1515.15 1475.56
Silver 30.82 29.38 28.51 26.77 25.90 24.4573
Crude Oil 102.42 100.85 99.90 98.00 97.05 95.4768
DJIA 12409.28 12322.98 12270.99 12167.01 12115.02 12028.72

 

[4xpipcounter]

Monthly S&R's--0112

Pair R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3644 1.3330 1.3140 1.2762 1.2572 1.2258
USD/JPY 78.23 77.62 77.25 76.51 76.14 75.53
GBP/USD 1.5949 1.5759 1.5645 1.5417 1.5303 1.5113
USD/CHF 0.9800 0.9613 0.9500 0.9274 0.9161 0.8974
EUR/CHF 1.2470 1.2329 1.2245 1.2075 1.1991 1.1850
AUD/USD 1.0744 1.0501 1.0355 1.0061 0.9915 0.9672
USD/CAD 1.0584 1.0413 1.0310 1.0104 1.0001 0.9830
NZD/USD 0.8206 0.8009 0.7891 0.7653 0.7535 0.7338
EUR/GBP 0.8644 0.8502 0.8416 0.8244 0.8158 0.8016
EUR/JPY 105.85 103.00 101.29 97.85 96.14 93.29
GBP/JPY 123.01 121.41 120.45 118.53 117.57 115.97