Some of my forecasts
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Dax
6348.30 6208.01 6123.51 5954.49 5869.99 5729.70
It is doubtful the WS2 at 5869 will be hit this week. It is also doubtful the daily kijun at 5894 will be hit. The correction of the UP, however, should continue at the start of the week. The market has its eye on the WR2 at 6208, and he advance could go beyond that to the previous point it leveled on the weekly kijun at 6244.
6348.30 6208.01 6123.51 5954.49 5869.99 5729.70
It is doubtful the WS2 at 5869 will be hit this week. It is also doubtful the daily kijun at 5894 will be hit. The correction of the UP, however, should continue at the start of the week. The market has its eye on the WR2 at 6208, and he advance could go beyond that to the previous point it leveled on the weekly kijun at 6244.
Gbp/chf
For now, containment to the downside is going to be the MR1 at 1.4683. Once this pair is ready to return to the UP, it should be on its way to the top of the weekly cloud at 1.4902. Watch out for that level. A huge reversal could ensue from that area. If not, then it is going to be an ugly breakout.
What I like about that level is that it matches nicely with the WR2 at 1.4905.
It does seem many pairs are getting ready for some formidable reversals.
For now, containment to the downside is going to be the MR1 at 1.4683. Once this pair is ready to return to the UP, it should be on its way to the top of the weekly cloud at 1.4902. Watch out for that level. A huge reversal could ensue from that area. If not, then it is going to be an ugly breakout.
What I like about that level is that it matches nicely with the WR2 at 1.4905.
It does seem many pairs are getting ready for some formidable reversals.
I don't know what the deal is with me and the candlestick formations of late, but I'm noticing more and more consistent reactions to what I am seeing.
Can someone tell me if the encircled area is a pin head? I've seen this formation many times, and it seems once it is formed, it is a very strong move once it is broken, just like we see on this chart.
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Can someone tell me if the encircled area is a pin head? I've seen this formation many times, and it seems once it is formed, it is a very strong move once it is broken, just like we see on this chart.
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Re: Eur/usd
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I hope these 2 charts might help in answering your question. If they don't, then let me know, as I can post copious examples.
I have been tracking this pair for over a month right now, along with the EUR/AUD, I've been wearing out my "sell button.
First, let me point out a very common mistake in using the stochastics. Notice on the hourly the last time the stochastics crossed it was OS. Also, notice there is a strong positive divergence when you look at price action relative to the crossovers on the stochastics. Many would jump all over this and be saying this DOWN is finished, the market is going to the moon. Later, they get into a forum like this one, post the chart and complain about how the market did not do what they thought it should do (BTW, this is not meant in anyway to cast a negative light on anyone. I'm just making a point.).
The other way (And it's a different twist.) to look at it is in terms of price divergence. Price is making the huge moves and the stochastics cannot keep up. In other words, strong momentum favors the DOWN. In thinking of price divergence, and considering it is very uncommon way of way of thinking, it could be viewed in terms of subtracting a negative in stead of adding a positive.
Here's another one that will help us think out of the box: 2+2=10. Tell me I'm crazy, but the proof of that very problem is coming.
Now let me get to your question, because I have not begun to answer it.
First, look at the daily. Let me add that the monthly is still pointing full steam ahead to 1.1815. The daily is showing a full-blown DOWN channel. The bottom TL I drew matches perfectly parallel to the SD channel on the upper. Also, the stochastics gets around 50, and there is another blow out.
The kijun has not been touched since the DOWN begun.
Only one candle has opened and closed above the tenken since the DOWN begun, and we are talking 1,500 pips ago.
Now to answer your question, "do u track it continously for such moves."
You don't need to.
First we know the market is headed much lower. We also know if there is any kind of a strong correction, it will be limited to <> 1.3290. because of the cloud. It is not entering the cloud anytime soon. Notice the hourly and how fast stochastics was entering the OB territory. Yet, the market has gone virtually sideways.
Next thing is be aware of when price action starts picking up. Part of the sideways motion it has experienced has come from the lack of volume from the market because of the slow time. So, this adds up to the fact we are around the corner from the next strong leg south.
Now the object is to find an entry. The WS2 is 1.2827. I could assume that is going to contain for the next leg south. My DR1 is 1.2837, and that would have to contain, or the DOWN is doomed for the day.
Another thing to note is how the WS2 lines up perfectly with the cloud into the future. That is another sign of the continued bearishness.
The stop could virtually be made a few pips on the other side of the DR1. But, the ichimoku also has a presence in directing our thoughts towards a stop. Notice how the kijun has straight lined, currently at 1.2856. If I am wrong concerning the DOW continuing, then you'll be glad the stop was in place at the hourly kijun. Once in the trade, and it starts going your way, then count 3 candles back on the kijun and trail the candle. When price action slows sown around 9:30pm IST, then scope down to the 15m and trail, but always make sure your stop is 3 candles back in lieu of the reading on the kijun.
I've had 3 day trades this week, all shorts, and I got stopped out during the slower time of the day with huge wins. I have been doing the same thing with the EUR/AUD, so between the 2 it has netted me close to 700 pips.
Any rate, that is how you use the smaller TF to let it have its way on the correction, while placing your trades in the direction of the higher TF's. The hourly says we are headed to circa 1.2724, maybe a little lower. The daily says we are headed further south because of the huge DOWN channel. among other things, so we plan on entering anywhere from current level to 1.2724.
Here's another thing. It's almost 9:00 in the morning where you live as of this writing, it's almost 11:00 at night here. I'm placed in a position to have to place an entry order, or just hit sell and go to bed. Remember if you are placing an entry order because you plan on leaving for the day, make it reasonable. By reasonable, I mean it cannot be 1.2724. Make it a level you feel will be easy for it to hit. After all. if the trade backs up on you by 20 or 30 pips while you were gone, you were not there to witness it.
Okay, now to prove two+two=ten. It was base four. So in base four you count, one, two, three, ten.
Trading is also that way. It helps us to take something so simple and think outside the box.
Thank you for such a detailed explanation..
I understand your point.. Agree with u..
if the stochs move faster than the price action then something is fishy and can continue the current trend..
Will keep in mind on wat u said.
Regards
Raj
hosting images
image upload
I hope these 2 charts might help in answering your question. If they don't, then let me know, as I can post copious examples.
I have been tracking this pair for over a month right now, along with the EUR/AUD, I've been wearing out my "sell button.
First, let me point out a very common mistake in using the stochastics. Notice on the hourly the last time the stochastics crossed it was OS. Also, notice there is a strong positive divergence when you look at price action relative to the crossovers on the stochastics. Many would jump all over this and be saying this DOWN is finished, the market is going to the moon. Later, they get into a forum like this one, post the chart and complain about how the market did not do what they thought it should do (BTW, this is not meant in anyway to cast a negative light on anyone. I'm just making a point.).
The other way (And it's a different twist.) to look at it is in terms of price divergence. Price is making the huge moves and the stochastics cannot keep up. In other words, strong momentum favors the DOWN. In thinking of price divergence, and considering it is very uncommon way of way of thinking, it could be viewed in terms of subtracting a negative in stead of adding a positive.
Here's another one that will help us think out of the box: 2+2=10. Tell me I'm crazy, but the proof of that very problem is coming.
Now let me get to your question, because I have not begun to answer it.
First, look at the daily. Let me add that the monthly is still pointing full steam ahead to 1.1815. The daily is showing a full-blown DOWN channel. The bottom TL I drew matches perfectly parallel to the SD channel on the upper. Also, the stochastics gets around 50, and there is another blow out.
The kijun has not been touched since the DOWN begun.
Only one candle has opened and closed above the tenken since the DOWN begun, and we are talking 1,500 pips ago.
Now to answer your question, "do u track it continously for such moves."
You don't need to.
First we know the market is headed much lower. We also know if there is any kind of a strong correction, it will be limited to <> 1.3290. because of the cloud. It is not entering the cloud anytime soon. Notice the hourly and how fast stochastics was entering the OB territory. Yet, the market has gone virtually sideways.
Next thing is be aware of when price action starts picking up. Part of the sideways motion it has experienced has come from the lack of volume from the market because of the slow time. So, this adds up to the fact we are around the corner from the next strong leg south.
Now the object is to find an entry. The WS2 is 1.2827. I could assume that is going to contain for the next leg south. My DR1 is 1.2837, and that would have to contain, or the DOWN is doomed for the day.
Another thing to note is how the WS2 lines up perfectly with the cloud into the future. That is another sign of the continued bearishness.
The stop could virtually be made a few pips on the other side of the DR1. But, the ichimoku also has a presence in directing our thoughts towards a stop. Notice how the kijun has straight lined, currently at 1.2856. If I am wrong concerning the DOW continuing, then you'll be glad the stop was in place at the hourly kijun. Once in the trade, and it starts going your way, then count 3 candles back on the kijun and trail the candle. When price action slows sown around 9:30pm IST, then scope down to the 15m and trail, but always make sure your stop is 3 candles back in lieu of the reading on the kijun.
I've had 3 day trades this week, all shorts, and I got stopped out during the slower time of the day with huge wins. I have been doing the same thing with the EUR/AUD, so between the 2 it has netted me close to 700 pips.
Any rate, that is how you use the smaller TF to let it have its way on the correction, while placing your trades in the direction of the higher TF's. The hourly says we are headed to circa 1.2724, maybe a little lower. The daily says we are headed further south because of the huge DOWN channel. among other things, so we plan on entering anywhere from current level to 1.2724.
Here's another thing. It's almost 9:00 in the morning where you live as of this writing, it's almost 11:00 at night here. I'm placed in a position to have to place an entry order, or just hit sell and go to bed. Remember if you are placing an entry order because you plan on leaving for the day, make it reasonable. By reasonable, I mean it cannot be 1.2724. Make it a level you feel will be easy for it to hit. After all. if the trade backs up on you by 20 or 30 pips while you were gone, you were not there to witness it.
Okay, now to prove two+two=ten. It was base four. So in base four you count, one, two, three, ten.
Trading is also that way. It helps us to take something so simple and think outside the box.
I understand your point.. Agree with u..
if the stochs move faster than the price action then something is fishy and can continue the current trend..
Will keep in mind on wat u said.
Regards
Raj
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That's your additional confirmation we are headed lower. Yesterday's low was already taken out.
Regards
Raj
Eur/usd
I could get kind of giddy with what I see here, but I'm still hold off on the excitement with what I see as a prospective MT trend change. All the properties are there for a TL break, except.... the TL was very steep. If today's DS1 at 1.2686 holds up, then additional evidence could be building up towards the reversal. I'm using it because it crosses the TL at the exact current lowest point.
image hosting png
I could get kind of giddy with what I see here, but I'm still hold off on the excitement with what I see as a prospective MT trend change. All the properties are there for a TL break, except.... the TL was very steep. If today's DS1 at 1.2686 holds up, then additional evidence could be building up towards the reversal. I'm using it because it crosses the TL at the exact current lowest point.
image hosting png
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