Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Price Action--II

I can tell you are going to love it.
I planned on about 3 insertions today, but I can't keep up with many the e-mails and PM's I'm getting today. It's obscene.

Sure, we will be patient. And it is an interesting topic. Since we last discussed my learnings, I have added moving averages, trend following (or chasing), some stop loss management to the list of tools I use. However, my model is still pretty much averaging costs (not exactly, but that's the closest name I can provide), and by now I am getting some understanding about identifying trends. The next wave up and down should make better profits than the past year (at least that is the eternal hope).

Even though trend lines and S&Rs work most of the time, price action can also tell a story in terms of when it is going to breach all the S&Rs (or will falter). My thoughts on this are premature, but ... your sessions will be useful.

 

[4xpipcounter]

No. PF's are more subjective, and you have to be good like Kavima in their proper usage. But, like I say so many times, you can have 2 diverse methodologies, and they will yield the same basic result.
So, in that way, they are similar, but the structuralization of the indicators are completely different.

Paul a Q on kavima's thread. I have not spent enough time there to understand the model, so posting the Q here. Just glancing at the picture made me see shape similar to SD channel. Is there a similarity?

 

[rkgoyal_98]

Crude Oil

As we had discussed earlier week about to pass away in a range movement. Cloud support on weekly in the next week will be at 92 with kijun still under the cloud and being flat. Upside movement is being resisted by tenkan and in addition to this there is trendline on weekly joining peek of 2008 with march 2011 peak. Over implications of this is that price should move down toward the cloud support at 92.

On the daily charts price is between kijun and tenkan and now tenkan is pointed downward. Kijun will also follow price movement downward into the future. Price has gone below the narrow cloud in recent past too but kijun being flat above the cloud there was a pullback and up move was resisted sucessully by kijun pushing the price back into the cloud. Ant further dip in price will make kijun and tenkan follow price downwards movement.

On 4H charts price has been making LH and LL since 5th Jan.Now price has been pushed once again into the cloud. Tenkan is also pointing downwards however kijus is still provind some support. Break out (downside) of the cloud on 4H will also make the price below the cloud on daily charts. Rising cloud has turned flat in the future and any down movement will also make cloud twist to bearish into the future.


On Hourly Chart Price has gone below the cloud and both tenkan and kijun are following the price. there has been a pull back as stoch has become highly oversold on the hourly chart. However Hourly tenkan 98.49, Kijun 98.74 and daily span B 98.13 should resist any upmove in this area.

Sir kindly guide me if i am reading the charts fine also guide me about timing for the trade entry. Where shall we take entry ( on pull back to 98.XX) after stoch has got out of the oversold zone on hourly.
A guidance will be immensely useful
Regards

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/usd

This pair has entered a restructuring zone. At the least, it is temporarily given up the trip north and will look to the eastern seaboard as it decides on future direction. I did say in my Weekly Forecast that the WS1 at 1.3103 was going to be hit, but we main come a little short. At another glance, that is ideal containment, even into next week.
A further update will be provided in the Weekly Forecast.

BTW, requests on a Friday on the 11 major pairs can be kind of sketchy, only because the WF is just a heartbeat away.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Crude Oil

RK, excellent job!

After all that, we look at the weekly and monthly and say this market is still very bullish, and it will stay that way as long as the candle stay above the cloud. There is heavy pressure on the weekly, so its favored the market will continue south for awhile longer. A look at the monthly shows it hardly created a dent, as the Nov. candle engulfs the 3 subsequent ones. All this adds up to the current weekly cloud top at 92.77 should contain. If it so much as drifts through the cloud and hits the bottom at 91.69, then the UP is all over. Because the monthly looks like it is going sideways, the top of the weekly should be the signal for the reversal.

As we had discussed earlier week about to pass away in a range movement. Cloud support on weekly in the next week will be at 92 with kijun still under the cloud and being flat. Upside movement is being resisted by tenkan and in addition to this there is trendline on weekly joining peek of 2008 with march 2011 peak. Over implications of this is that price should move down toward the cloud support at 92.

On the daily charts price is between kijun and tenkan and now tenkan is pointed downward. Kijun will also follow price movement downward into the future. Price has gone below the narrow cloud in recent past too but kijun being flat above the cloud there was a pullback and up move was resisted sucessully by kijun pushing the price back into the cloud. Ant further dip in price will make kijun and tenkan follow price downwards movement.

On 4H charts price has been making LH and LL since 5th Jan.Now price has been pushed once again into the cloud. Tenkan is also pointing downwards however kijus is still provind some support. Break out (downside) of the cloud on 4H will also make the price below the cloud on daily charts. Rising cloud has turned flat in the future and any down movement will also make cloud twist to bearish into the future.


On Hourly Chart Price has gone below the cloud and both tenkan and kijun are following the price. there has been a pull back as stoch has become highly oversold on the hourly chart. However Hourly tenkan 98.49, Kijun 98.74 and daily span B 98.13 should resist any upmove in this area.

Sir kindly guide me if i am reading the charts fine also guide me about timing for the trade entry. Where shall we take entry ( on pull back to 98.XX) after stoch has got out of the oversold zone on hourly.
A guidance will be immensely useful
Regards

 

[sanjosedesi]

SJD, I got it for MT4. E-mail me if you want it.
I ended up staying up later than I wanted to.

This is about SD channel just in case the context is not clear from the quote.

I did some googling, and after looking at the MQ4 code, it appears the SD channel is a 'linear regression' channel which also exists in MetaStock. The settings in the MQ4 are to take 56 periods, whereas the default in MS is 88 periods. But that's easy to change. I know I am not talking to people who know both MT4 and MS, but can anyone confirm that this is moving in the right direction?

The other thing I remember from when I had MT4 was that the ST channel did not change even if you changed the display mode from 5 minutes to an hour to a daily to a weekly. Paul, is that right? When I look at MStock, it actually redraws to cover 56/88 weeks, or months, or whatever the zoom mode might be. Or is that how it is supposed to be?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Depended on the velocity and price movement once price gets to extremes is how the channel in each time period will adjust.
BTW, I knew you meant SD channel.

This is about SD channel just in case the context is not clear from the quote.

I did some googling, and after looking at the MQ4 code, it appears the SD channel is a 'linear regression' channel which also exists in MetaStock. The settings in the MQ4 are to take 56 periods, whereas the default in MS is 88 periods. But that's easy to change. I know I am not talking to people who know both MT4 and MS, but can anyone confirm that this is moving in the right direction?

The other thing I remember from when I had MT4 was that the ST channel did not change even if you changed the display mode from 5 minutes to an hour to a daily to a weekly. Paul, is that right? When I look at MStock, it actually redraws to cover 56/88 weeks, or months, or whatever the zoom mode might be. Or is that how it is supposed to be?

 

[sanjosedesi]

Depended on the velocity and price movement once price gets to extremes is how the channel in each time period will adjust.
BTW, I knew you meant SD channel.

From whatever I have read, I think I got it working in MS. A follow up question based on your blog post from last year reproduced below as a QUOTE
... I am not clear about the directional aspect. Main reason is that it is hard for me to parse english to understand when you are talking about the channel, and when about the price. Could you provide some examples such as?

==> Trend is sloping down @ 30 degrees.
If the prices breaks the down side of SD channel while also sloping down, this will happen.
If the price breaks the up side of SD channel ...
==> At least something like that if possible.

There are some things to be aware of. If the tilt is going opposite of the direction is approached the extreme reading, then it results in a strong bounce (Not necessarily this strong all the time.) off that level. The opposite side of the scenario is that it could signal a reversal in trend on that timeframe, and if that happens, the candle will blow through the line and just keep going (Works similar to TL's.) Later, the indicator will readjust in order to reflect the new trend.

If the extreme reading is hit in the direction of the current movement, the line might get taken out, but be patient. It is coming back. What we can assume is that in using the indicator, we can assume the current dip should be contained a little under the WS1 at .9469. The problem with this is that you will eventually get the move in your favor, but that real strong move does not always happen. Also, when you enter, the momentum is going against you, so that is another thing to consider.

 

[Piratetrader]

Re: Eur/usd

Pretty good. It seems to have bounced up from 1.3155 :thumb:

I assumed it could fall with all divergence in the momentum indicator and the weak momentum spikes candle formation that was forming on the h4 . I also reffered myself to the single OB/OS condtion as the USD was the most oversold on the daily It was all saying down And then the last but not the least Friday most of the time pairs are correct them selves against the trend but as Paul sir has given my requested view It has to decide where it wants to go now

 

[Piratetrader]

Re: Eur/usd

This pair has entered a restructuring zone. At the least, it is temporarily given up the trip north and will look to the eastern seaboard as it decides on future direction. I did say in my Weekly Forecast that the WS1 at 1.3103 was going to be hit, but we main come a little short. At another glance, that is ideal containment, even into next week.
A further update will be provided in the Weekly Forecast.

BTW, requests on a Friday on the 11 major pairs can be kind of sketchy, only because the WF is just a heartbeat away.

Sir 1 doubt as days passes the top of the cloud from 1.3545 it is Slanting down meaning that the Resistance on that area will decrease right? ON monday the top of the daily cloud will be at 1.3470 and then on the tuesday it will be 1.3420.sir suppose if it comes out of the cloud eastward in such cases do we still look for 1.3545 as a past daily kumo shadow resistance and expect a decision point or would it be the current? I know all 3 states past current and future measure equilibrium but which one would in this case be more dominant ??