Some of my forecasts

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Price Action--III

We have finally gotten to the meat and potatoes of this series, but one more thing. I got to get to the legend, or you won't know what the lines represent:
We know the black, blue, red, and maroon represent. They are the lines draw from the 4-hour, daily, weekly, and monthly.
Chartreuse: hourly.
Dotted lines: supports
Bold lines: Resistances.

This is going to take awhile to get to everything, yet, this is so simple, especially if you use it lieu of the rest of your methodology.

The object is to find the recent swing lows and highs on that TF.
After the peak was hit, then you look to the west to decide the recent swing low. This is the hourly, which is why the green dotted chartreuse line lines up so nicely with that point. Notice on the 1st trip down it almost hit the line. That does not become a new swing low because it has to be to the west of the peak. What could very well happen is that on the way back down that point could be broken, the actual swing low to the west not be, and then you end up with next to nothing, and possibly a losing trade. We are only interested in counting lots of pips.

If the swing low on the hourly is a few pips above the 4-hour, then it is okay for an entry at the hourly, and for that matter, you could have a double position, one at he hourly, and the other at the 4-hour.

The entries are very simple. If you were considering this pair, then you would set a buy stop at the solid black land chartreuse lines, and a sell stop at the black line and/or the chartreuse lines. Actually, 3-4 pips on the other side.
You are going to leave many initial pips on the table, but when your order kicks in, you see by the candle what happens.

I was not in this trade today, but I am in the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. They are both not doing exceptionally, but I'm going to show you an advantage next.

BTW, if this sounds too simple, at this point it is suppose to. We'll get into where to take profit and set stops and some other things.

Next, we take a trip to the land of Aus(sie).



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Re: Eur/usd

Pirate, the idea is to make adjustments as we go. With the cloud descending like that, it could very easily blow out the top. The weekly kijun is 1.3586, which would put it on the other side of the cloud.


Sir 1 doubt as days passes the top of the cloud from 1.3545 it is Slanting down meaning that the Resistance on that area will decrease right? ON monday the top of the daily cloud will be at 1.3470 and then on the tuesday it will be 1.3420.sir suppose if it comes out of the cloud eastward in such cases do we still look for 1.3545 as a past daily kumo shadow resistance and expect a decision point??
 
Price Action--IV

I'm going to show how you can mess up and still come out smelling like a rose.
Also, the advantages of entering a trade a swing high or low.

Notice on the chart, where I drew the support. That is a swing low, but not the right one. The correct one is the 1st spotted dotted up from the dotted (Lack of better terms.). Therefore, that would have made a better entry and then better pips.
What would have, and should have been even better was when the peak was established, then it move to the swing low, then move up to challenge the peak. Once that area became established, that would have been the new swing high for the R on the hourly. That means that new swing low where the next spotted dotted is at. The other that I missed was the very obvious 1-2-3, which would have made fro some very obvious pips
So, I entered at the wrong swing low. When a new swing low has been established, the previous swing high becomes the new untouchable R, which would be the stop. That area of the swing low, once broken, becomes a new R, and so even if the trade backs up on you, like it did, it's not going to go negative too much. When the swing low was fist hit, you can see that immediately the leg put the pedal to the metal and it was off. I thought it would continue to dip, but it didn't, yet, it still will.

The entries are just this simple. Find the swing low/high, then place a buy/sell stop just 3-4 pips on the other side, walk away, and let the computer do the rest. For the most part, you will get a very strong initial move, you can take profits as soon as it is completed, or wait fro the correction, and then the next leg after the swing point was broken.

There still a lot more, but would someone please tell me this is too hard?



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Price Action--V

We're not limited to just the hourly on up. This works on the 15-min charts.
BTW, my trade is no longer visible on this chart, because it was taken out for <> +20 pips.

The TL drawn is to show we have a 1-2-3 about to be formed. If the recent peak on this 15-min chart is taken out, then we get a strong move north. On the 15-min, this is where you would want to set your buy stop about 2 pips on the other side of that peak, wait for the strong move, and then you just scalped 15-20 pips.

This type of trading also requires extra work, because once supports and resistances are broken, then they all need to be reset.



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Weekly Review--020611

EUR/USD: This weeks level to watch for is not one of the weeklies, but the monthly, namely the MR1 at 1.3248. If it is so much as touched, that is the needed signal to say this pair is comfortable enough inside the cloud, and it will have its sights on the top at 1.3552. There also seems to be little corrective room heading south. It appears the WS1 at 1.3103 will be hit, but thats about as far as the market should get. Just in case the WS2 at 1.3048 is touched, then we are in for more consolidation.

The market did dip to as low as 1.3026, but look at that 4-hour candle after it got there! 24 hours later there was a huge 4-hour candle that hit the MR1 and put 1.3552 on the radar. The peak this week was 1.3320

GBP/USD: The WS1 at 1.5757 should contain or this pair is in for some consolidations. The favorable scenario is that is will, and then we head to the weekly kijun at 1.5924. That would also allow for a move to my WR2 at 1.5946. Even after the weekly kijun is hit, there is still room for a move farther north in the near future, but the 50% mark of the YR1>YR2 presents very strong R that should contain the correction and turn the pair back around heading south.

It was only a strong spike that took the pair 28 pips on the other of the WS1 to 1.5729, and then it did head to the weekly kijun just 4 pips on the other side at 1.5728.

USD/CHF: Im still waiting for this pair to begin its next leg of the journey south, and break out of the consolidation it has been in the last 6 days. There are some indications we could see a rise to the WR2 at .9254. If that is the case, then the trip is postponed for another week, and we get an even stronger move towards .9354. The other scenario is simply the WS2 at .9104 being touched, and then that begins the strong acceleration to the bottom of the daily cloud at .9056, and most likely well beyond that point. Either way, it looks like a one-way ticket this week. Given how weak the USD looks over overall, Id have to favor the trip south for this pair.

The trip was postponed, as we peaked at .9262, just 8 pips on the other side of the WR2. The dip was .9103.

AUD/USD: A move to begin the week to the WS1 at 1.0696 almost seems a lock. There is an outside chance the dip could continue to the MP / WS2 combo at 1.0621 / 1.0622. From there, the rebound took the pair to at least the WR1 at 1.0846, and we could also see the WR2 hit at 1.0920.

The week did start off heading south, just 13 pips on the other side of the WS1 (1.0696) at 1.0683. The pair peaked at exactly the WR1 at 1.0846 (Now you know why I love my S&Rs.), then the reversal back to the down came real close to that cluster event I mentioned, as the dip was 1.0641.

USD/CAD: Any move north this week should be contained at the WR2 at 1.0010. This pair should now be in the middle of the MT move towards .9707. For this week, there is next to nothing stopping the fall to the WS2 at .9854.

A strong move ended the week, as the peak was 1.0038, and ended at 1.0013, just 3 pips on the other side of the WR2. I was slightly off on this one on the dip as it was .9924, just 3 pips on the other side of the WS1.

NZD/USD: With the fresh break out of the weekly cloud and the break of chart R at .8241. This pair is headed much higher before thoughts of a reversal. The pair might need a ST break of the trip north, but cluster S in the .8228 area will more than amply contain. The WR1 at .8414 and maybe the WR2 at .8476 get hit this week. MT the pair is headed to the .8570s, with a possibility to challenge the all-time peak at .8870.

The trip was stalled on this one, as the peak was .8400. A sharp reversal took the pair to the dip at .8248, still 20 pips above the cluster S.

EUR/GBP: For the last 7 weeks, this pair has traveled east, and it is preparing for one more breakout south to the bottom of the monthly cloud at .8167. Ideal containment to the north would be the 4-hour kijun / TL combo at .8330, then we head to the WS2 at .8243 and most likely, lower. If the .8330 level is broken then we are in for some more upper channel consolidation and face the possibility of a move to the WR2 at .8387.

The pair did make it to .8401, but it was a vicious free fall after that to the dip at .8263.

EUR/JPY: This pair is still plodding along on its journey north, but the peak established 2 weeks ago may hold even after this week is over the bottom of a fresh cloud has not been touched yet, so the initial piercing might be tough. The bottom is 101.75, and the WR2 is 102.00, so its there that should contain this week. To the south the WS1 at 100.17 will probably contain.

This pair turned into a freight train, as the peak was 103.27
Note: This pair proves you dont have to be right in your forecast to be right in trading, even though it seems like an irony. I netted +272 pips this week off this one pair alone.


GBP/JPY: The last 2 times this pair entered the daily cloud it gave us a head fake. This time it was followed by a strong impulsive reversal. With the strong momentum, it appears the next time it enters it is going to stay all the way to the top at 123.12. Any correction could dip to the WS2 at 120.48, and there is a possibility this pair will not make it that far. After the pull back, then it should be on to the WR2 at 122.04.

In a week that the Weekly Forecast sparkled, this was the best call. The week started off dipping to 120.46, just 2 pips on the other side of the WS2, and then retreated to the peak at 123.15, just 3 pips on the other side of the stated point.
 

rkgoyal_98

Well-Known Member
RK, excellent job!

After all that, we look at the weekly and monthly and say this market is still very bullish, and it will stay that way as long as the candle stay above the cloud. There is heavy pressure on the weekly, so its favored the market will continue south for awhile longer. A look at the monthly shows it hardly created a dent, as the Nov. candle engulfs the 3 subsequent ones. All this adds up to the current weekly cloud top at 92.77 should contain. If it so much as drifts through the cloud and hits the bottom at 91.69, then the UP is all over. Because the monthly looks like it is going sideways, the top of the weekly should be the signal for the reversal.

Originally Posted by rkgoyal_98
As we had discussed earlier week about to pass away in a range movement. Cloud support on weekly in the next week will be at 92 with kijun still under the cloud and being flat. Upside movement is being resisted by tenkan and in addition to this there is trendline on weekly joining peek of 2008 with march 2011 peak. Over implications of this is that price should move down toward the cloud support at 92.

On the daily charts price is between kijun and tenkan and now tenkan is pointed downward. Kijun will also follow price movement downward into the future. Price has gone below the narrow cloud in recent past too but kijun being flat above the cloud there was a pullback and up move was resisted sucessully by kijun pushing the price back into the cloud. Ant further dip in price will make kijun and tenkan follow price downwards movement.

On 4H charts price has been making LH and LL since 5th Jan.Now price has been pushed once again into the cloud. Tenkan is also pointing downwards however kijus is still provind some support. Break out (downside) of the cloud on 4H will also make the price below the cloud on daily charts. Rising cloud has turned flat in the future and any down movement will also make cloud twist to bearish into the future.


On Hourly Chart Price has gone below the cloud and both tenkan and kijun are following the price. there has been a pull back as stoch has become highly oversold on the hourly chart. However Hourly tenkan 98.49, Kijun 98.74 and daily span B 98.13 should resist any upmove in this area.

Sir kindly guide me if i am reading the charts fine also guide me about timing for the trade entry. Where shall we take entry ( on pull back to 98.XX) after stoch has got out of the oversold zone on hourly.
A guidance will be immensely useful
Regards
Sir analysing alone does not help in trading. I wanted to define some rules for entry that is why i had posted this. As you had agreed there is a presure for down movement shorttimeframe with a target of 92.77 as such we can paly a swing from arround 99 to 93 which will be about 5%. So after the analysis i got stuck at entry part -- regarding what is perfect spot for short. in the last week you had said that we should wait till price closes below daily tanken. Yesterday price has closed below tanken now decision remains as to
1. we shall wait till the end of day and if it is clear thar price will be below tenkan 5 min from the close of the day we can enter the shorts.
2. We can look on 4H and 1H time frame from time to time and see what is happening with price with kijun tenkan combo. You had mentioned in the series that you also look for slow stoch alos to decide the entry.

Can you please help guide in this
Regards
 

rkgoyal_98

Well-Known Member
Re: Price Action--II

This will not be quite as straightforward as the ichimoku series was, but I have to lead up to certain things. More than the ichimoku, I assure you this series requires to retain every post to its completion. I'm saying that in advance for anyone who wants to copy-n-paste them.
The chart is the look for everyone in this series. It is also a live trading account, so if you see a trade up on a posted chart, you will know its live.

I was talking to someone last night (my time) when I was up late. He's a trader from New Zealand, and to make a long story short, I was showing him why I was adding to my position at 102.55 on the EUR/JPY. Notice that huge candle. It was the first one that touched 102.55, and you see how huge it is. We did have a pullback and it even went negative for awhile, but the market is now at a new level, and I will explain how we can know that.

I ask you once again to please be patient with me on this series. When its over, maybe a few jaws will drop. For now, I can't blame you for thinking, "What is this kind talking about? Where is he going with this?"

That is why I'm just asking for your patience and treat none of these posts with a grain of salt.



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Sir few thing are still not clear
There are Three Green support line. Can u please tell why Middle gree line slightly above 2nd swing low, is it because you had considered that dowmward movement ended only with wide range bar breakout so that is better support then lower sing low

Can u also mark on the chart where did we take trade Point of entry
as you were saynig we place 2 orders on the basis of 3rd insertion

you would set a buy stop at the solid black land chartreuse lines, and a sell stop at the black line and/or the chartreuse lines. Actually, 3-4 pips on the other side.
However 4th insertion is about a different pair and slightly confusing
As per third insertion entry short entry shold be below topmost green support (hourly) however in this chart 4H support is not visible
If entry is below topmost green line first target can be middle green line and 2nd can be lower green line so can we place profit booking order 50% on each of these
Regards
 
Sir analysing alone does not help in trading. I wanted to define some rules for entry that is why i had posted this. As you had agreed there is a presure for down movement shorttimeframe with a target of 92.77 as such we can paly a swing from arround 99 to 93 which will be about 5%. So after the analysis i got stuck at entry part -- regarding what is perfect spot for short. in the last week you had said that we should wait till price closes below daily tanken. Yesterday price has closed below tanken now decision remains as to
1. we shall wait till the end of day and if it is clear thar price will be below tenkan 5 min from the close of the day we can enter the shorts.
If you are looking for price to be below the 5-min, then it is the end of the 5-min candle that you should be looking at. There's 144 5-min candles in a day, so one day is a long time by comparison to 5 minutes.
Also, when we are dealing with brokers that have days starting who knows when, the beginning if the day becomes subjective when it comes to oil. The actual star of the business day is 2:30am your time.
One way to use the lower TF's to ascertain an entry is to wait for the proper ichimoku properties to line up. Another thing is to use the chart properties such as TL breaks, and static chart S&R's, such as the venture we have begun. In the current series. We are also going to add to your arsenal rejection candles.
I will say that in looking to short oil under current market conditions, TL's are not going to be very helpful, because it is already in the DOWN, but the chart properties can be used under any condition.


2. We can look on 4H and 1H time frame from time to time and see what is happening with price with kijun tenkan combo. You had mentioned in the series that you also look for slow stoch alos to decide the entry.
The stochs can be helpful if the indication is highly OB/OS condition at very key S&R levels. They have made me look smart on a few occasions. It wasn't too long ago I had a <> 150-pip winner with no pullback. (Regardless, that is still an exception. It also makes for good fluff if you ever want to write an e-book later--lol)

Just keep in mind that a very key level you are looking for is 92.77. Once in that area, your antennas should go up. Once close to that figure is where you want to look at the lower TF's to hone a long. We will also continue to learn in the current series that if 92.50 is so much as touched, then it's going to be screaming south!!!


Can you please help guide in this
Regards
......................
 
Re: Price Action--II

RK, this chart was posted during the introductory faze, so it is not meant as a training chart. It was the 3rd insertion that the training charts actually started. Nevertheless, there was still one thing I wanted to make very clear. This was an introductory chart, but the point I was even trying to make indelible in someone's head.
I did only see 2 lines on the chart, so I do not know where the top line is the buy line on my position. The bottom line was a swing low from the hourly, and that swing low could not be seen on the 5-min.
This is the point I was trying to make, and the action you get almost everytime. Do you see that huge candle? That was the exact point of my entry. After that, the most recent swing low becomes the stop, and it is virtually untouchable.
BTW, that was my 3rd entry on the pair. All the entries were taken out at circa 103.00. I'm not saying that to blow my horn, but simply to point out in advance the effectiveness of what I am teaching, not to be just talking, but through personal experience.
This was a case the ichimoku and my WR3 helped me to get out of the trade. This week I'll look to go long again, but I don't want to give away what is going to be in my Weekly Forecast.


Sir few thing are still not clear
There are Three Green support line. Can u please tell why Middle gree line slightly above 2nd swing low, is it because you had considered that dowmward movement ended only with wide range bar breakout so that is better support then lower sing low

Can u also mark on the chart where did we take trade Point of entry
as you were saynig we place 2 orders on the basis of 3rd insertion

you would set a buy stop at the solid black land chartreuse lines, and a sell stop at the black line and/or the chartreuse lines. Actually, 3-4 pips on the other side.
However 4th insertion is about a different pair and slightly confusing
As per third insertion entry short entry shold be below topmost green support (hourly) however in this chart 4H support is not visible
If entry is below topmost green line first target can be middle green line and 2nd can be lower green line so can we place profit booking order 50% on each of these
Regards
 
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