Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

My data feed on my demo looks really messed up for this pair, but if the high-low is right, then the dip today has been 49.80, and then it bounced strongly frrom there, so no "OTOH" scenario is necessary--lol.

If an index is trending heavily, then it will give the marching orders to all its pairs. If the INR index is trending heavily, then it is going to blow the doors off the USD.
When you look at a chart for a pair during any given period of time and notice one particular pair has been hammering its crosses or got hammered, then just check out its index. It trended heavily during hat period of time. This is why many people like to make trading decisions based on what they see on the indexes.

Does it create an OTOH scenario for INR ?? You had mentioned 49.71 as the max downside. The dollar index seems to have a direct relationship with INR.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/jpy

Yes, the pair is definitely having its fun near the top.
The UP may need a breather, but the likelihood is a move further north.

In regards to EURJPY, I am looking at 108.3 as the containment which is the top of the cloud.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

The market has been beating its own drum of late, but if it is a bull day on Friday, then it will be back in rhythm. If the daily TK at 1726.91 is touched, then we head to the 1800's.

1695 is a decisive point for Gold, I am expecting it makes lows again (target of 1642).. I wont be entering into trade but would be watching to understand it better.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

It depends on the account. My main one, I'm not fazed (I'd just as soon as not have any newbies reading this.) by 25%. I can have up to a 33% pull down in my equity before I lower my lot size. So, considering 85% of my trades are winning trades, the odds are in my favor that if I lose one trade, even 25%, then the next trade I would be at breakeven or better.

I also tend to get impatient with losing trades. I've got a short on the GBP/CHF that is -10 pips after 2 1/2 hours of being in the trade. That equals a little less than 1% of my equity. If I see a strong obviated opportunity come along, and I don't have room on my platform, then out goes the GBP/CHF in favor of the new position. Even if it would be -5 pips, it still counts as one of my losing trades.

Folks, I'm a good trader/ forecaster, but along these lines I'm a bad example to most. This works for me because of my high percentage of winning trades, and because my last dime is not in the markets.
Also, high percentage risks almost always work out well for me, such as the EUR/JPY (L) that was closed today.

This is also why I talk about how we are all different. For all those variables is why my % of risk is higher than most. Others are afraid to risk more than 1%.

True story: I once knew someone who risked 100% of his equity on one trade (Don't jump to no conclusions. You don't have all the facts up to this point.). The amount he put in one of his accounts is like spitting in the ocean by comparison to his net worth. He had a very high percentage of good trades and they lasted a few days. At the close of each trade, he withdraws his winnings, then starts all over again. The rare times he has a loser he redeposits. In essence he bankrupts his account 1-2 times per month and is making a mint.

Paul,

Question for you.. In your trade strategy, what % do u keep as a max drawndown.

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/chf

This pair is continuing lower. The WS2 at 1.4296 should be hit, and the 1st monthly objective, MS1 at 1.4279 should also be hit. The latter is also the exact level of the recent leveling of the cloud to the west. The pair could be headed lower, but that is what things look like for now.

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

It depends on the account. My main one, I'm not fazed (I'd just as soon as not have any newbies reading this.) by 25%. I can have up to a 33% pull down in my equity before I lower my lot size. So, considering 85% of my trades are winning trades, the odds are in my favor that if I lose one trade, even 25%, then the next trade I would be at breakeven or better.

I also tend to get impatient with losing trades. I've got a short on the GBP/CHF that is -10 pips after 2 1/2 hours of being in the trade. That equals a little less than 1% of my equity. If I see a strong obviated opportunity come along, and I don't have room on my platform, then out goes the GBP/CHF in favor of the new position. Even if it would be -5 pips, it still counts as one of my losing trades.

Folks, I'm a good trader/ forecaster, but along these lines I'm a bad example to most. This works for me because of my high percentage of winning trades, and because my last dime is not in the markets.
Also, high percentage risks almost always work out well for me, such as the EUR/JPY (L) that was closed today.

This is also why I talk about how we are all different. For all those variables is why my % of risk is higher than most. Others are afraid to risk more than 1%.

True story: I once knew someone who risked 100% of his equity on one trade (Don't jump to no conclusions. You don't have all the facts up to this point.). The amount he put in one of his accounts is like spitting in the ocean by comparison to his net worth. He had a very high percentage of good trades and they lasted a few days. At the close of each trade, he withdraws his winnings, then starts all over again. The rare times he has a loser he redeposits. In essence he bankrupts his account 1-2 times per month and is making a mint.

Thanks paul for the detailed explanation. I understand where you coming from.
I am looking at the max of 1 to 2% drawdown (more conservative as usual)
I think I am at a very initial stage

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Raj, I was happy to answer your question, but you can't believe how out of place I feel answering it in a venue such as this one. OTOH, I guess it is shedding some light on what I believing everything about trading is so personal, even though the rules have to be well-defined.
I guess I can go back to the 3 absolutes about trading, and they are mastered in order at their different stages-- methodology, margin management, and mind discipline. The 1st 2 should be mastered on a demo account, and the final one you never know you got until you do go live.

The 1-2% you are seeking is not tough to do. The only thing is you have to figure exactly what your position size will be with each and every trade.
You may know this, but I'll explain for some bystanders that might be looking on. I'll meet you in the middle, and let's say 1 1/2%. Let's say you have $1,000 in your account. That means the most you can lose on the trade is $15. Let say you have a stop of 25 pips. That would be 60 cents per pips, which would be a lot size of .06 lots on that trade.

Thanks paul for the detailed explanation. I understand where you coming from.
I am looking at the max of 1 to 2% drawdown (more conservative as usual)
I think I am at a very initial stage

Regards
Raj

 

[scorpiomaan]

Hello ,

I have bought USD currency 50 Lots Call option @ strike price of 51 @0.1750 .So my total investment including brokerage is 10250. SO can you let me know is it safe call . Please help

 

[4xpipcounter]

Scorpio, I used to have the USD Index on my demo platform, but for whatever the reason, I don't now.
OTT, I don't trade options.
JMO, I don't think it is the best idea in the world to enter a trade, then ask is you should have been there after you are in. I don't mean to say that harshly, but rather in a constructive sense.

Hello ,

I have bought USD currency 50 Lots Call option @ strike price of 51 @0.1750 .So my total investment including brokerage is 10250. SO can you let me know is it safe call . Please help

 

[4xpipcounter]

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