Some of my forecasts
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Timepass, I am posting my chart on the 15-min gold.
I like better the 1-2-3 I drew, if that 2 is broken, it is in for a huge break. This is because it is at the peak of a trend, and there is nice symmetry. If you enter on the bullish 1-2-3, you'll get some pips, but the movement is not as sure when it lacks symmetry. Also, this would be the 4th 1-2-3 in a move that has garnered a low-high move of <> 25 points ( pulled the chart back to check.) I don't like those odds when trading the 1-2-3.
Considering this is the 15-min, you might be looking to scalp 2-3 points, then I would say go for it.
Let me say that I am not as confident on the stochastics as our friend Smartrade. I use the stochastics simply as a warning light, because when it becomes OB/OS and other conditions prevail, then it's going to bag some serious pips.
Look to the west where my fantastic artwork is :lol:. The stochs were OB, then the dip was made, which created a swing low, When price challenged the peak, you could have shorted at that point with a SL 2 pips on the other side. What secured the deal was when the swing low was broken. Without the stochastics being so OB, there would not have been the CR to enter the trade once it challenged the peak. It was still OB even after the dip was created.
The other way I like to use stochs as a neon light is when they become OB/OS, they make the move, but then around the 40-60 mark price slows down, then the stochs curl. If the move after the OB/OS was created is against the bigger trend, then the stochs curling is probably an indication that price action is back in the trend. I rode the EUR/JPY south and cashed a grip of pips. The whole time the stochs were never OB, and as soon as it curled the DOWN resumed in earnest.
BTW, the other reason I used my chart is that my stochs are set for OB/OS at 85/15. Your is at 80/20. Personally, I like the 85/15 much better.
The reason is a look at our charts tells why. To the west it shows that 85 was hit and had a crossover above 85, and then you see the corresponding move. To the east, your 80 was hit and my 85 was not, and we see the move.
What I just shared there is no set rule, but just a personal belief.
The stochastics, and this is ironic, is the only original part of my methodology from 2004. What I just shared was very noticeable to me as soon as I started plotting it, so I changed it, and for 7 1/2 years, it's the way I kept it.
jpeg image hosting
I like better the 1-2-3 I drew, if that 2 is broken, it is in for a huge break. This is because it is at the peak of a trend, and there is nice symmetry. If you enter on the bullish 1-2-3, you'll get some pips, but the movement is not as sure when it lacks symmetry. Also, this would be the 4th 1-2-3 in a move that has garnered a low-high move of <> 25 points ( pulled the chart back to check.) I don't like those odds when trading the 1-2-3.
Considering this is the 15-min, you might be looking to scalp 2-3 points, then I would say go for it.
Let me say that I am not as confident on the stochastics as our friend Smartrade. I use the stochastics simply as a warning light, because when it becomes OB/OS and other conditions prevail, then it's going to bag some serious pips.
Look to the west where my fantastic artwork is :lol:. The stochs were OB, then the dip was made, which created a swing low, When price challenged the peak, you could have shorted at that point with a SL 2 pips on the other side. What secured the deal was when the swing low was broken. Without the stochastics being so OB, there would not have been the CR to enter the trade once it challenged the peak. It was still OB even after the dip was created.
The other way I like to use stochs as a neon light is when they become OB/OS, they make the move, but then around the 40-60 mark price slows down, then the stochs curl. If the move after the OB/OS was created is against the bigger trend, then the stochs curling is probably an indication that price action is back in the trend. I rode the EUR/JPY south and cashed a grip of pips. The whole time the stochs were never OB, and as soon as it curled the DOWN resumed in earnest.
BTW, the other reason I used my chart is that my stochs are set for OB/OS at 85/15. Your is at 80/20. Personally, I like the 85/15 much better.
The reason is a look at our charts tells why. To the west it shows that 85 was hit and had a crossover above 85, and then you see the corresponding move. To the east, your 80 was hit and my 85 was not, and we see the move.
What I just shared there is no set rule, but just a personal belief.
The stochastics, and this is ironic, is the only original part of my methodology from 2004. What I just shared was very noticeable to me as soon as I started plotting it, so I changed it, and for 7 1/2 years, it's the way I kept it.
jpeg image hosting
Usd/inr
As per request:
BTW, Timepass and others. Everything concerning technical analysis and market forecasting is on topic here. We right be talking about stochastics and the EUR/USD, but I'm game is someone else comes along and wants to talk Bollinger Bands and INR/RUB.
And now....the USD/INR:
The 4-hour kijun at 49.82 should now contain the downside. I never pulled open my chart to notice the sudden reversal, but it is now heading higher. After the daily consolidates a bit under the cloud, it should break through and head to th top at 51.42. Longer term, we could see the peak at 54.30 challenged and maybe a new peak established.
As per request:
BTW, Timepass and others. Everything concerning technical analysis and market forecasting is on topic here. We right be talking about stochastics and the EUR/USD, but I'm game is someone else comes along and wants to talk Bollinger Bands and INR/RUB.
And now....the USD/INR:
The 4-hour kijun at 49.82 should now contain the downside. I never pulled open my chart to notice the sudden reversal, but it is now heading higher. After the daily consolidates a bit under the cloud, it should break through and head to th top at 51.42. Longer term, we could see the peak at 54.30 challenged and maybe a new peak established.
Re: Usd/inr
The Reserve Bank of India intervened to stabilize the rupee/dollar price. I think they will continue this if the Rupee tends to weaken too much. Somewhere the Governor of RBI had said that dollar price of more than Rs. 52 was "unacceptable" and seems like they are working continuously in this regard.
But this is the "fundamental" - something inconsequential to you, surely
The Reserve Bank of India intervened to stabilize the rupee/dollar price. I think they will continue this if the Rupee tends to weaken too much. Somewhere the Governor of RBI had said that dollar price of more than Rs. 52 was "unacceptable" and seems like they are working continuously in this regard.
But this is the "fundamental" - something inconsequential to you, surely
Re: Usd/inr
You noticed all my references had to do with TA's, and so whatever the RBI had to say, you are soooo right. I have no comment.
LOL, tell your friends at the RBI to wait for at least 51.42 to get hit, and then we'll let them do their thing, but that is only until we decide to change our minds.
Oops, I lied. I did have a comment on what the RBI had to say.
This is so funny! My wife knows nothing about trading. Sometimes she will look at my charts and ask me if I am yellow or black.
Any rate the one thing she knows something about is some FA question. Someone might ask a question concerning FA's (referring to the local people) and my wife may over hear it, and she'll think, "Uh-oh, not the right question to ask my husband." I tell her to relax, "I'm not a volcano just because they make an FA comment.
She listens to a lot of the talk shows, and sometimes they will voice their views on the markets. I've got an opposing view using my TA's. This woman is on autopilot. Her response is, "Honey, how come they don't know anything on the radio?"
LOL, gotta love it.
EUR/JPY is next.
You noticed all my references had to do with TA's, and so whatever the RBI had to say, you are soooo right. I have no comment.
LOL, tell your friends at the RBI to wait for at least 51.42 to get hit, and then we'll let them do their thing, but that is only until we decide to change our minds.
Oops, I lied. I did have a comment on what the RBI had to say.
This is so funny! My wife knows nothing about trading. Sometimes she will look at my charts and ask me if I am yellow or black.
Any rate the one thing she knows something about is some FA question. Someone might ask a question concerning FA's (referring to the local people) and my wife may over hear it, and she'll think, "Uh-oh, not the right question to ask my husband." I tell her to relax, "I'm not a volcano just because they make an FA comment.
She listens to a lot of the talk shows, and sometimes they will voice their views on the markets. I've got an opposing view using my TA's. This woman is on autopilot. Her response is, "Honey, how come they don't know anything on the radio?"
LOL, gotta love it.
EUR/JPY is next.
The Reserve Bank of India intervened to stabilize the rupee/dollar price. I think they will continue this if the Rupee tends to weaken too much. Somewhere the Governor of RBI had said that dollar price of more than Rs. 52 was "unacceptable" and seems like they are working continuously in this regard.
But this is the "fundamental" - something inconsequential to you, surely
But this is the "fundamental" - something inconsequential to you, surely
Eur/jpy
I said in my Weekly Forecast this pair should have 105.92 staked out this week. It did dip to 105.68. You now have a perfect base that has been formed. I'm showing the hourly because it displays the base best of all. Next stop is a strong break due north. The cloud will be broken into and penetrated out the other way. The 4-hour has a strong cluster R at 108.10 which is the circa area of the top of the cloud and the MP. It should be an easy target, but watch for reaction when it gets there.
gif image hosting
I said in my Weekly Forecast this pair should have 105.92 staked out this week. It did dip to 105.68. You now have a perfect base that has been formed. I'm showing the hourly because it displays the base best of all. Next stop is a strong break due north. The cloud will be broken into and penetrated out the other way. The 4-hour has a strong cluster R at 108.10 which is the circa area of the top of the cloud and the MP. It should be an easy target, but watch for reaction when it gets there.
gif image hosting
Dear FPC,
I have been reading your thread and got lot of lessons. Hope you won't mind if I ask some questions.
I have 3 charts 1 hour, 4 hour and daily.
Now my problem is these 3 diff tf's indicate diff things.
In 1 hour it has already broken cloud and is in strong move.
In 4 hour it is touched by Kinjun which is said as res.bottom of the cloud and also monthly pivot is still bit far at around.
0730
On daily Kinjun is around 0681.
In this case which timeframe to follow for targets? how to analyse in case 3 different timeframes show different things?
Please guide me.
I have been reading your thread and got lot of lessons. Hope you won't mind if I ask some questions.
I have 3 charts 1 hour, 4 hour and daily.
Now my problem is these 3 diff tf's indicate diff things.
In 1 hour it has already broken cloud and is in strong move.
In 4 hour it is touched by Kinjun which is said as res.bottom of the cloud and also monthly pivot is still bit far at around.
0730
On daily Kinjun is around 0681.
In this case which timeframe to follow for targets? how to analyse in case 3 different timeframes show different things?
Please guide me.
I am waiting for USD/JPY to reach levels of 80 mark before heading further up. Even I would prefer to go long at 80 levels
EUR/USD.. the key point would 1.323 area. I have initiated short at 1.321 levels and one more short on EUR/JPY at 107.6 levels.
Still in a dilemma whether to short Gold.
Regards
Raj
EUR/USD.. the key point would 1.323 area. I have initiated short at 1.321 levels and one more short on EUR/JPY at 107.6 levels.
Still in a dilemma whether to short Gold.
Regards
Raj
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