Some of my forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly S&R's--030412

R3 r2 r1 s1 s2 s3
eur/usd 1.3496 1.3361 1.3279 1.3117 1.3035 1.2900
usd/jpy 83.67 82.81 82.29 81.25 80.73 79.87
gbp/usd 1.6020 1.5933 1.5881 1.5775 1.5723 1.5636
usd/chf 0.9352 0.9253 0.9193 0.9075 0.9015 0.8916
aud/usd 1.0936 1.0841 1.0785 1.0671 1.0615 1.0520
usd/cad 1.0096 1.0002 0.9945 0.9831 0.9774 0.9680
nzd/usd 0.8476 0.8392 0.8342 0.8240 0.8190 0.8106
eur/gbp 0.8514 0.8433 0.8385 0.8287 0.8239 0.8158
eur/jpy 110.72 109.46 108.71 107.19 106.44 105.18
gbp/jpy 132.95 131.36 130.40 128.50 127.54 125.95

 

[4xpipcounter]

I might be a little late with the Weekly Forecast. I got a trip planned for me that came up last minute.

 

[Bountz]

Markets are bound for a major pullback and it will probably start from the stock markets.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Bountz, welcome to the forum.

That is what we saw with many of the US pairs last week, along with many crosses.
The DJIA has been camped in extreme OB territory for quite awhile, and it is due to splash.

Markets are bound for a major pullback and it will probably start from the stock markets.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Weekly Forecast--030412

EUR/USD: The current level of the UP TL is 1.3157, which is well above the WS1 at 1.3117. Either the downside is extremely limited this week or the drop is going to accelerate. It is looking like the latter scenario is going to prevail. If that does happen, then 1.2980 has to be treated as the next decision point.

USD/JPY: The WS1 at 81.25 should contain, we see this pair rise higher. The MR1 at 82.69 and the WR2 at 82.81 should be an R zone this week. MT, it now appears this pair is head to challenge the weekly kijun at 85.26.

GBP/USD: The 4-hour TK combo at 1.5898 and the WR1 at 1.5881 is a strong R zone that should contain this week, as we see this pair drop lower to a cluster S area that includes the WS2 at 1.5723 and the MS2 at 1.5724. MT, the 1.5648 swing low is vulnerable. A break of it and this pair could be challenging the 1.5200s over coming weeks.

USD/CHF: The sharp rise that ended last week should be favored to continue this week. The MR2-WR2 area of 9246-.9251 looks like solid containment for the week. MT, the bottom of the daily cloud at .9300 has to be absolute containment, or the entire DOWN could be over with.

AUD/USD: How many times have I put it in print this pair is headed to challenging the all-time high at 1.1079 and braced to break it? That view has not changed. To start the week, we could see a move to challenge the MS1 at 1.0652, and then we see a sprint towards the WR2 at 1.0841.

USD/CAD: The MT drop to the bottom of the weekly cloud at .9707 is still on. The drop will continue this week, but there is room for recovery to the cluster R area of .9945--.9954, which includes the WR1 and MR1 respectively. Afterward the drop should resume to the WS2 at .9774, and maybe lower.

NZD/USD: This pair is in for a sharp drop to the top of the daily cloud at .8104. The key point that will signal that is the recent swing low at .8244. Any correction should be contained at the cluster R area of .8340.

EUR/GBP: When you think of 1.1079, you can only think of the Aussie, as that number has beaten up and seen many times in previous forecasts. The magic number for this pair is .8167. That is the bottom of the monthly cloud, and we are still waiting for it to be hit. The strong impulsive move that ended last week confirmed that and containment is now the WR1 at .8384. There is a strong cluster event for this week waiting at the WS2-MS2 combo at .8238.

EUR/JPY: There is a strong ichimoku cluster event at 108.01, which is the 4-hour tenken/kijun/top of the cloud. If that does not hold, then 108.48 better or the corrective DOWN is over. OTOH, if the WS1 at 107.18 is broken, then this pair cold have 105.92 staked out this week.

GBP/JPY: The UP should continue to the top of the weekly cloud at 131.13. There is plenty of room for the corrective move to the daily tenken at 127.71, and that should be the range for this week.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I wrote in my Weekly Forecast that the daily TL at 1.3157 could contain and limit the downside. That exact level was hit and we got a strong bounce, so it remains to be seen if it actually is going to contain.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I received the following PM, and I thought everyone else would benefit:
"I was reading your Weekly forecast of USDCHF and you written in that, that this pair can show more upside.
Can you please guide me a little how you determine that it will show upside and not downside. Means why the probability of upside is more than downside.
I am at learning stage and want to know your psychology."

First, I'll answer the question based on what my methodology told me. Please keep in mind, it is only my methodology. The idea is and what is necessary is that the personal methodology needs to be developed to determine the directional bias of the markets.

The red vertical line shows the beginning of the week on each TF. What I did not mention in the WF concerning the pair was the possible correction to start the week. This is because of the obviation on the hourly chart.
This is because it ranged far from the cloud, the stochastics was turned south after being OB, and it was near the top of the SD channel. There is not going to be enough volume to start the week to push the pair through those odds.
The 4-hour is showing a fresh break of the cloud. With what I knew was going to be an impending correction because of the hourly, I also knew the 4-hour cloud would contain, the tenken during that time would catch up to add support, and then send the pair north.
The daily is showing some strong momentum north, a clean break of the kijun, which in a sharp uptrend should now act as support.
I mentioned the fact .9300 needs to contain or the longer term DOWN is over with. This is because it is going to amount to an additional strong move if broken. This is because of it being the swing high on that TF. It is also the bottom of the cloud, which means the cloud would totally be ripped out and sent to the other side. In essence, if so much as .9302 is hit, the DOWN is over.

 

[4xpipcounter]

One thing I did not mention in the previous post is that the journey also needs reference points. The red line that price is bouncing off of is my WR1. The yellow and red line combo is the WR2/MR2, .9251/.9246, which should also be hit before the week is out.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Someone had a question concerning the semantics of the post in my Weekly Forecast:
"EUR/USD: The current level of the UP TL is 1.3157, which is well above the WS1 at 1.3117. Either the downside is extremely limited this week or the drop is going to accelerate. It is looking like the latter scenario is going to prevail. If that does happen, then 1.2980 has to be treated as the next decision point."

As of this writing, the pair is at exactly 1.3117, so the latter scenario, which is the favored scenario did prevail. We will need an extremely strong and volatile bounce from the current area for that to change, which is very doubtful.
The TL is now R, so the market has to go much lower. The 1.2980 level could be broken, and we see the previous dip at 1.2623 challenged.

 

[LivetoTrade]

I wrote in my Weekly Forecast that the daily TL at 1.3157 could contain and limit the downside. That exact level was hit and we got a strong bounce, so it remains to be seen if it actually is going to contain.

4xpip,
1.3157 did not contain, but, 1.312x area is top of Daily cloud.
Wouldn't that be good support?